Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Lodging
Is Marriott International, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Marriott International, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 4.04 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $339.15 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Marriott International, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.04 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MAR's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.1748 | 1.2 | -0.21 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.6686 | 1.4 | 0.94 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1526 | 3.3 | 0.5 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 3.107 | 0.6 | 1.86 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.9508 | 1.0 | 0.95 |
How has MAR's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.21 | Safe |
| 2023 | 4.25 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.09 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.04 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from MAR's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Marriott International, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $10.34 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $9.51 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $11.58 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 38.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 32.8x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $362.83 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Marriott International, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up MAR's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MAR's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 33.1% | — |
| 2023 | 35.2% | Rising |
| 2024 | 33.6% | Declining |
| 2025 | 33.8% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Marriott International, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Marriott International, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 27.8%. FCF covers the dividend 6.3x. 28 consecutive years of payments.
Marriott International, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.2B | $25.1B | $20.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.6B | $2.4B | $2.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.6B | $2.0B | $2.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 19.9% | 19.8% | 21.9% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our MAR analysis
MAR earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.54. Revenue estimate: $6.56B. Our current Fair Value: $339.15 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MAR analyst consensus: 46% bullish (12 of 26 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 12 Hold, 2 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $362.83 (1.2% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $339.15.
MAR paid $0.6700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.8%.
MAR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR missed EPS estimates by 1.5%
Reported EPS: $2.58 vs estimate $2.62. Our Fair Value of $339.15 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
MAR filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR paid $0.6700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.8%.
MAR beat EPS estimates by 3.5%
Reported EPS: $2.47 vs estimate $2.39. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $339.15 (7.6% below current price).
MAR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR paid $0.6700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.8%.
MAR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR beat EPS estimates by 1.1%
Reported EPS: $2.65 vs estimate $2.62. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $339.15 (7.6% below current price).
MAR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR paid $0.6700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.8%.
MAR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR beat EPS estimates by 3.0%
Reported EPS: $2.32 vs estimate $2.25. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $339.15 (7.6% below current price).
MAR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR paid $0.6300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.8%.
MAR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR beat EPS estimates by 2.7%
Reported EPS: $2.45 vs estimate $2.38. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $339.15 (7.6% below current price).
MAR filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MAR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Marriott International, Inc.
What is Marriott International, Inc. stock price today?
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) stock price is $367.13 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Marriott International, Inc. do?
Marriott International, Inc. engages in the operation, franchise, and licensing of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties in the U.S. & Canada, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Greater China, and Asia Pacific, and internationally.
What is Marriott International, Inc. market cap?
Marriott International, Inc. has a market capitalization of $97.28B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is MAR in?
Marriott International, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Lodging industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol MAR.
Is MAR stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Marriott International, Inc. trades 8.2% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $339.15
- Current Price: $367.13
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is MAR stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Marriott International, Inc. is $362.83, implying downside of 1.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $443.00
- Analyst Low Target: $269.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Marriott International, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Marriott International, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 6.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 15.6%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 12.5%
What are Marriott International, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.6B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 19.9% | Declining |
What is MAR's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 38.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 28.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 32.8x
How volatile is MAR stock?
Marriott International, Inc. has a beta of 1.10, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Marriott International, Inc. have?
Marriott International, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $358.0M
- Total Debt: $17.18B
- Net Cash Position: $-16.82B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Marriott International, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Marriott International, Inc. generated $1.67B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $3.21B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Marriott International, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Marriott International, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.7%
- Payout Ratio: 27.8%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 28
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: 6.9%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Marriott International, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Marriott International, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 4.04, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Marriott International, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Marriott International, Inc. scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
How do I buy MAR stock?
MAR shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MAR
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MAR a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Marriott International, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Marriott International, Inc.?
The current CEO of Marriott International, Inc. is Mr. Anthony G. Capuano Jr..
What is MAR's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $9.51
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $13.04
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $11.58
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $13.02
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MAR analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings