Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 6.72 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $29.87 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 6.72 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CMG's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.031 | 1.2 | 0.04 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0689 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.2238 | 3.3 | 0.74 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 7.5318 | 0.6 | 4.52 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.3259 | 1.0 | 1.33 |
How has CMG's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 8.95 | Safe |
| 2023 | 8.63 | Safe |
| 2024 | 7.28 | Safe |
| 2025 | 6.72 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from CMG's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.14 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.14 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $1.14 | 35 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 30.8x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 26.2x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $43.80 (35 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up CMG's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CMG's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 51.1% | — |
| 2023 | 53.3% | Rising |
| 2024 | 54.3% | Stable |
| 2025 | 60.0% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.9B | $11.3B | $8.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.5B | $1.5B | $0.9B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B | $1.5B | $0.8B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 25.4% | 26.7% | 23.9% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our CMG analysis
CMG earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.24. Revenue estimate: $3.06B. Our current Fair Value: $29.87 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
CMG analyst consensus: 68% bullish (26 of 38 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 22 Buy, 12 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $43.80 (24.8% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $29.87.
CMG filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG beat EPS estimates by 4.9%
Reported EPS: $0.25 vs estimate $0.24. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $29.87 (14.9% below current price).
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG beat EPS estimates by 0.9%
Reported EPS: $0.29 vs estimate $0.29. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $29.87 (14.9% below current price).
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG beat EPS estimates by 1.3%
Reported EPS: $0.33 vs estimate $0.33. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $29.87 (14.9% below current price).
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG beat EPS estimates by 4.7%
Reported EPS: $0.29 vs estimate $0.28. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $29.87 (14.9% below current price).
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CMG beat EPS estimates by 1.4%
Reported EPS: $0.25 vs estimate $0.25. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $29.87 (14.9% below current price).
CMG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. stock price today?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) stock price is $35.11 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. do?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides. It offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork branded as Responsibly Raised.
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. market cap?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. has a market capitalization of $46.43B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is CMG in?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Restaurants industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol CMG.
Is CMG stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. trades 17.5% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $29.87
- Current Price: $35.11
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is CMG stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 35 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is $43.80, implying upside of 24.8% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $53.00
- Analyst Low Target: $36.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 8.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): -2.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 11.0%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 19.4%
What are Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 25.4% | Rising |
What is CMG's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 30.8x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 25.8x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 26.2x
How volatile is CMG stock?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. has a beta of 1.06, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. have?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.05B
- Total Debt: $5.08B
- Net Cash Position: $-4.03B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. generated $1.01B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.11B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. pay a dividend?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 6.72, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is CMG's return on equity (ROE)?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s return on equity is 47.4%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CMG stock?
CMG shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CMG
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CMG a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.?
The current CEO of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is Mr. Scott Boatwright.
What is CMG's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.14
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $1.36
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.14
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $1.36
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CMG analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings