Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services
Is Booking Holdings Inc. a safe investment right now?
Booking Holdings Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 6.49 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $189.52 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Booking Holdings Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 6.49 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives BKNG's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1902 | 1.2 | 0.23 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 1.3898 | 1.4 | 1.95 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.2887 | 3.3 | 0.95 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 4.0771 | 0.6 | 2.45 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.9198 | 1.0 | 0.92 |
How has BKNG's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6.88 | Safe |
| 2023 | 6.9 | Safe |
| 2024 | 6.62 | Safe |
| 2025 | 6.49 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from BKNG's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Booking Holdings Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $8.24 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $6.62 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $10.68 | 36 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 27.1x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 23.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $232.05 (36 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Booking Holdings Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up BKNG's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is BKNG's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 28.3% | — |
| 2023 | 55.8% | Rising |
| 2024 | 60.0% | Rising |
| 2025 | 60.0% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Booking Holdings Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Booking Holdings Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 23.2%. FCF covers the dividend 0.0x. 3 consecutive years of payments.
Booking Holdings Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.9B | $23.7B | $17.1B | Rising |
| Net Income | $5.4B | $5.9B | $3.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.1B | $7.9B | $6.2B | Rising |
Recent events that affect our BKNG analysis
BKNG earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.07. Revenue estimate: $5.52B. Our current Fair Value: $189.52 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
BKNG analyst consensus: 82% bullish (31 of 38 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 25 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $232.05 (29.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $189.52.
BKNG stock split 25:1
Stock splits don't change fundamental value, but they can affect per-share metrics. Our models automatically adjust for splits.
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG paid $0.4200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 23.2%.
BKNG beat EPS estimates by 0.3%
Reported EPS: $1.95 vs estimate $1.95. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $189.52 (5.6% above current price).
BKNG filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG paid $0.3840/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 23.2%.
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG beat EPS estimates by 3.7%
Reported EPS: $3.98 vs estimate $3.84. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $189.52 (5.6% above current price).
BKNG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG paid $0.3840/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 23.2%.
BKNG beat EPS estimates by 9.9%
Reported EPS: $2.22 vs estimate $2.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $189.52 (5.6% above current price).
BKNG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG paid $0.3840/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 23.2%.
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG beat EPS estimates by 41.2%
Reported EPS: $0.99 vs estimate $0.70. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $189.52 (5.6% above current price).
BKNG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG paid $0.3840/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 23.2%.
BKNG beat EPS estimates by 15.2%
Reported EPS: $1.66 vs estimate $1.44. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $189.52 (5.6% above current price).
BKNG filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
BKNG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Booking Holdings Inc.
What is Booking Holdings Inc. stock price today?
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) stock price is $179.40 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Booking Holdings Inc. do?
Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates Booking.com, which offers online accommodation reservations; and Priceline, which provides discount travel reservations services, as well as online accommodation, flight, rental car reservation services, vacation packages, cruises, activity, and affiliate programs. It also operates Agoda that offers online accommodation reservation, flight, ground transportation, and attractions.
What is Booking Holdings Inc. market cap?
Booking Holdings Inc. has a market capitalization of $142.05B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is BKNG in?
Booking Holdings Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Travel Services industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol BKNG.
Is BKNG stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Booking Holdings Inc. trades 5.3% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $189.52
- Current Price: $179.40
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is BKNG stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 36 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Booking Holdings Inc. is $232.05, implying upside of 29.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $309.84
- Analyst Low Target: $179.80
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Booking Holdings Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Booking Holdings Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 11.2%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 17.1%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 8.5%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 16.6%
What are Booking Holdings Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $5.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.1B | Rising |
What is BKNG's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 27.1x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 14.4x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 23.0x
How volatile is BKNG stock?
Booking Holdings Inc. has a beta of 1.20, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Booking Holdings Inc. have?
Booking Holdings Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $17.20B
- Total Debt: $19.41B
- Net Cash Position: $-2.21B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Booking Holdings Inc.'s free cash flow?
Booking Holdings Inc. generated $6.55B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $9.41B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Booking Holdings Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Booking Holdings Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.8%
- Payout Ratio: 23.2%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 3
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: 0.0%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: C
Is Booking Holdings Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Booking Holdings Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 6.49, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Booking Holdings Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Booking Holdings Inc. scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
How do I buy BKNG stock?
BKNG shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol BKNG
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is BKNG a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Booking Holdings Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Booking Holdings Inc.?
The current CEO of Booking Holdings Inc. is Mr. Glenn D. Fogel.
What is BKNG's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $6.62
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $12.45
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $10.68
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $12.45
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
BKNG analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings