Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Is Rivian Automotive, Inc. a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) stock is $19.23, versus a market price of $15.36 — Watch — Analyst Anchor. Analyst Consensus (26 analysts) — EPS model not applicable at negative earnings.
Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of -1.22 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $19.23 (Watch — Analyst Anchor). Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could Rivian Automotive, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of -1.22 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives RIVN's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.3296 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -1.8132 | 1.4 | -2.54 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.2251 | 3.3 | -0.74 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.1654 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3624 | 1.0 | 0.36 |
How has RIVN's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.83 | Gray |
| 2023 | 0.14 | Distress |
| 2024 | -0.59 | Distress |
| 2025 | -1.22 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from RIVN's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.00 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Trailing P/E | 0.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 0.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | N/A | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $19.23 (26 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Rivian Automotive, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up RIVN's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is RIVN's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -44.2% | — |
| 2023 | -38.4% | Rising |
| 2024 | -40.2% | Declining |
| 2025 | -37.1% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.4B | $5.0B | $1.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$3.6B | −$4.7B | −$6.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | −$2.5B | −$2.9B | −$6.4B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 2.7% | N/A | N/A | — |
Recent events that affect our RIVN analysis
RIVN earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $-0.65. Revenue estimate: $1.98B. Our current Fair Value: $19.23 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
RIVN analyst consensus: 48% bullish (12 of 25 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 8 Hold, 3 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $19.23 (25.2% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $19.23.
RIVN beat EPS estimates by 18.9%
Reported EPS: $-0.63 vs estimate $-0.78. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $19.23 (25.2% above current price).
RIVN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN beat EPS estimates by 8.7%
Reported EPS: $-0.55 vs estimate $-0.60. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $19.23 (25.2% above current price).
RIVN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN beat EPS estimates by 16.6%
Reported EPS: $-0.66 vs estimate $-0.79. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $19.23 (25.2% above current price).
RIVN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN missed EPS estimates by 11.1%
Reported EPS: $-0.96 vs estimate $-0.86. Our Fair Value of $19.23 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
RIVN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN missed EPS estimates by 25.4%
Reported EPS: $-0.80 vs estimate $-0.64. Our Fair Value of $19.23 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
RIVN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN beat EPS estimates by 48.0%
Reported EPS: $-0.48 vs estimate $-0.92. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $19.23 (25.2% above current price).
RIVN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN beat EPS estimates by 25.8%
Reported EPS: $-0.47 vs estimate $-0.63. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $19.23 (25.2% above current price).
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RIVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Rivian Automotive, Inc.
What is Rivian Automotive, Inc. stock price today?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) stock price is $15.36 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Rivian Automotive, Inc. do?
Rivian Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells category-defining electric vehicles. It operates through two segments, Automotive, and Software and Services. It offers consumer vehicles, including a two-row, five-passenger pickup truck under the R1T brand; and a three-row, seven-passenger sport utility vehicle under the R1S name.
What is Rivian Automotive, Inc. market cap?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. has a market capitalization of $22.24B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is RIVN in?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Auto Manufacturers industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol RIVN.
Is RIVN stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Rivian Automotive, Inc. trades 20.1% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $19.23
- Current Price: $15.36
- Valuation Zone: Watch — Analyst Anchor
What is RIVN stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 26 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Rivian Automotive, Inc. is $19.23, implying upside of 25.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $25.00
- Analyst Low Target: $13.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Rivian Automotive, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Rivian Automotive, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 38.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 20.4%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 59.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 10.9%
What are Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$3.6B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | −$2.5B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 2.7% | — |
What is RIVN's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): -8.6x
How volatile is RIVN stock?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. has a beta of 1.61, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Rivian Automotive, Inc. have?
Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $5.31B
- Total Debt: $5.35B
- Net Cash Position: $-43.0M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. generated $-1.54B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $-1.84B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Rivian Automotive, Inc. pay a dividend?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Rivian Automotive, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is -1.22, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Rivian Automotive, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. scores 2.3/5 stars (Weak moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is RIVN's return on equity (ROE)?
Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s return on equity is -57.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy RIVN stock?
RIVN shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol RIVN
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is RIVN a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Rivian Automotive, Inc. as Pure Speculation. It lacks the financial stability or valuation margin typically required for value investing. This stock is considered high risk.
Who is the CEO of Rivian Automotive, Inc.?
The current CEO of Rivian Automotive, Inc. is Dr. Robert Joseph Scaringe Ph.D..
What is RIVN's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-2.59
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $-1.79
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $-2.44
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $-2.18
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
RIVN analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings