MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail
Is MercadoLibre, Inc. a safe investment right now?
MercadoLibre, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.81 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $1736.40 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could MercadoLibre, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.81 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MELI's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1158 | 1.2 | 0.14 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.1361 | 1.4 | 0.19 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0704 | 3.3 | 0.23 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.6266 | 0.6 | 1.58 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.6772 | 1.0 | 0.68 |
How has MELI's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6.06 | Safe |
| 2023 | 5.43 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.26 | Safe |
| 2025 | 2.81 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from MELI's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is MercadoLibre, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $43.41 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $39.40 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $49.42 | 26 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 47.2x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $2,457.58 (26 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does MercadoLibre, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up MELI's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MELI's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 14.0% | — |
| 2023 | 23.2% | Rising |
| 2024 | 26.1% | Rising |
| 2025 | 19.0% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is MercadoLibre, Inc.'s dividend safe?
MercadoLibre, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.9B | $20.8B | $10.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.0B | $1.9B | $0.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $10.8B | $7.1B | $2.5B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 44.5% | 46.1% | 48.2% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our MELI analysis
MELI earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $9.10. Revenue estimate: $8.31B. Our current Fair Value: $1736.40 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MELI analyst consensus: 92% bullish (24 of 26 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 19 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $2457.58 (32.1% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $1736.40.
MELI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI missed EPS estimates by 3.6%
Reported EPS: $11.03 vs estimate $11.44. Our Fair Value of $1736.40 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
MELI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI missed EPS estimates by 10.5%
Reported EPS: $8.32 vs estimate $9.30. Our Fair Value of $1736.40 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
MELI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI missed EPS estimates by 13.3%
Reported EPS: $10.31 vs estimate $11.89. Our Fair Value of $1736.40 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
MELI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI beat EPS estimates by 17.8%
Reported EPS: $9.74 vs estimate $8.27. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1736.40 (6.7% below current price).
MELI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MELI beat EPS estimates by 66.8%
Reported EPS: $12.61 vs estimate $7.56. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1736.40 (6.7% below current price).
MELI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about MercadoLibre, Inc.
What is MercadoLibre, Inc. stock price today?
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) stock price is $1860.98 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does MercadoLibre, Inc. do?
MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally. It operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an online commerce platform that can be accessed through mobile app or website; and Mercado Pago, a financial technology solution platform, which offers comprehensive set of financial technology services to users and other users of its e-commerce platform.
What is MercadoLibre, Inc. market cap?
MercadoLibre, Inc. has a market capitalization of $94.35B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is MELI in?
MercadoLibre, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Internet Retail industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol MELI.
Is MELI stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, MercadoLibre, Inc. trades 7.2% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $1736.40
- Current Price: $1860.98
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is MELI stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 26 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for MercadoLibre, Inc. is $2457.58, implying upside of 32.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $3500.00
- Analyst Low Target: $1827.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is MercadoLibre, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for MercadoLibre, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 33.8%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 25.4%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 24.2%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 39.8%
What are MercadoLibre, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $10.8B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 44.5% | Declining |
What is MELI's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 47.2x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 26.8x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is MELI stock?
MercadoLibre, Inc. has a beta of 1.49, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does MercadoLibre, Inc. have?
MercadoLibre, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $6.31B
- Total Debt: $11.42B
- Net Cash Position: $-5.11B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is MercadoLibre, Inc.'s free cash flow?
MercadoLibre, Inc. generated $-2.46B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $12.12B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does MercadoLibre, Inc. pay a dividend?
MercadoLibre, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is MercadoLibre, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
MercadoLibre, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.81, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does MercadoLibre, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
MercadoLibre, Inc. scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is MELI's return on equity (ROE)?
MercadoLibre, Inc.'s return on equity is 36.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy MELI stock?
MELI shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MELI
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MELI a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies MercadoLibre, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of MercadoLibre, Inc.?
The current CEO of MercadoLibre, Inc. is Mr. Ariel Szarfsztejn.
What is MELI's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $39.45
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $69.38
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $49.42
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $69.06
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MELI analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings