Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Is Restaurant Brands International a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Restaurant Brands International (QSR) stock is $65.40, versus a market price of $77.64 — Overvalued. Predicted EPS $3.94 x 16.6 Fair PE.
Restaurant Brands International's Altman Z-Score of 1.79 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $65.40 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Restaurant Brands International go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.79 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives QSR's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0024 | 1.2 | -0.0 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0701 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0861 | 3.3 | 0.28 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.7387 | 0.6 | 1.04 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3683 | 1.0 | 0.37 |
How has QSR's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.78 | Distress |
| 2023 | 1.83 | Gray |
| 2024 | 1.84 | Gray |
| 2025 | 1.79 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from QSR's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Restaurant Brands International Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $3.94 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (2Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.35 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $4.07 | 23 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 19.5x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 16.6x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $85.74 (23 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Restaurant Brands International have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up QSR's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is QSR's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12.1% | — |
| 2023 | 12.9% | Stable |
| 2024 | 14.3% | Rising |
| 2025 | 13.0% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Restaurant Brands International's dividend safe?
Can Restaurant Brands International afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 63.8%. FCF covers the dividend 1.4x. 12 consecutive years of payments.
US dividend withholding tax of 30% applies to non-US tax residents. This rate may be reduced under a tax treaty between the US and your country of residence. The adjusted yield shown assumes the default 30% rate. For informational purposes only — consult a qualified tax advisor.
Restaurant Brands International's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.4B | $8.4B | $6.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.8B | $1.0B | $1.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B | $1.3B | $1.4B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 33.9% | 36.0% | 39.9% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our QSR analysis
QSR earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.08. Revenue estimate: $2.53B. Our current Fair Value: $65.40 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
QSR analyst consensus: 63% bullish (17 of 27 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 9 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $85.74 (10.4% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $65.40.
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR beat EPS estimates by 3.2%
Reported EPS: $1.07 vs estimate $1.04. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.40 (15.8% below current price).
QSR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR paid $0.6500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 63.8%.
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR beat EPS estimates by 4.0%
Reported EPS: $0.86 vs estimate $0.83. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.40 (15.8% below current price).
QSR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR paid $0.6500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 63.8%.
QSR filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR beat EPS estimates by 1.3%
Reported EPS: $0.96 vs estimate $0.95. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.40 (15.8% below current price).
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR paid $0.6200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 63.8%.
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR beat EPS estimates by 2.9%
Reported EPS: $1.03 vs estimate $1.00. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.40 (15.8% below current price).
QSR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR paid $0.6200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 63.8%.
QSR missed EPS estimates by 2.9%
Reported EPS: $0.94 vs estimate $0.97. Our Fair Value of $65.40 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
QSR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR paid $0.6200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 63.8%.
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR missed EPS estimates by 4.1%
Reported EPS: $0.75 vs estimate $0.78. Our Fair Value of $65.40 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
QSR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR paid $0.6200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 63.8%.
QSR filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
QSR beat EPS estimates by 2.3%
Reported EPS: $0.81 vs estimate $0.79. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.40 (15.8% below current price).
QSR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Restaurant Brands International
What is Restaurant Brands International stock price today?
Restaurant Brands International (QSR) stock price is $77.64 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Restaurant Brands International do?
Restaurant Brands International Inc. operates as a quick service restaurant company in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through six segments: Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, Firehouse Subs, International, and Restaurant Holdings.
What is Restaurant Brands International market cap?
Restaurant Brands International has a market capitalization of $35.57B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is QSR in?
Restaurant Brands International operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Restaurants industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol QSR.
Is QSR stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Restaurant Brands International trades 18.7% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $65.40
- Current Price: $77.64
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is QSR stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 23 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Restaurant Brands International is $85.74, implying upside of 10.4% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $104.00
- Analyst Low Target: $78.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Restaurant Brands International revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Restaurant Brands International:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 4.2%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 10.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 0.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 8.5%
What are Restaurant Brands International's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.8B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 33.9% | Declining |
What is QSR's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 19.5x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 17.6x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 16.6x
How volatile is QSR stock?
Restaurant Brands International has a beta of 0.53, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Restaurant Brands International have?
Restaurant Brands International's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.10B
- Total Debt: $15.65B
- Net Cash Position: $-14.55B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Restaurant Brands International's free cash flow?
Restaurant Brands International generated $1.71B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.86B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Restaurant Brands International pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Restaurant Brands International pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 3.3%
- Payout Ratio: 63.8%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 12
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -9.3%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Restaurant Brands International at risk of going bankrupt?
Restaurant Brands International's Altman Z-Score is 1.79, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Restaurant Brands International have a durable competitive advantage?
Restaurant Brands International scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is QSR's return on equity (ROE)?
Restaurant Brands International's return on equity is 34.8%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy QSR stock?
QSR shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol QSR
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is QSR a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Restaurant Brands International as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Restaurant Brands International?
The current CEO of Restaurant Brands International is Mr. Joshua Kobza.
What is QSR's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $3.98
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $4.42
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $4.07
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $4.42
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
QSR analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings