Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services
Is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. a safe investment right now?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.15 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $236.78 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.15 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives RCL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.2365 | 1.2 | -0.28 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.1424 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1289 | 3.3 | 0.43 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.2905 | 0.6 | 1.37 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4309 | 1.0 | 0.43 |
How has RCL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.32 | Distress |
| 2023 | 1.85 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.15 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.15 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from RCL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $16.33 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $15.61 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $17.42 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 17.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 14.5x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $348.46 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up RCL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is RCL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -3.0% | — |
| 2023 | 11.9% | Rising |
| 2024 | 16.4% | Rising |
| 2025 | 17.1% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s dividend safe?
Can Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 22.4%. FCF covers the dividend 0.0x. 29 consecutive years of payments.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.9B | $16.5B | $8.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $4.3B | $2.9B | −$2.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $2.0B | −$2.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 49.4% | 47.5% | 25.2% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our RCL analysis
RCL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $3.22. Revenue estimate: $4.47B. Our current Fair Value: $236.78 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
RCL analyst consensus: 73% bullish (19 of 26 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $348.46 (31.2% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $236.78.
RCL paid $1.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 22.4%.
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL beat EPS estimates by 0.1%
Reported EPS: $2.80 vs estimate $2.80. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $236.78 (10.9% below current price).
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL paid $1.0000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 22.4%.
RCL beat EPS estimates by 1.2%
Reported EPS: $5.75 vs estimate $5.68. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $236.78 (10.9% below current price).
RCL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL paid $1.0000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 22.4%.
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL beat EPS estimates by 7.3%
Reported EPS: $4.38 vs estimate $4.08. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $236.78 (10.9% below current price).
RCL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL paid $0.7500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 22.4%.
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL beat EPS estimates by 7.0%
Reported EPS: $2.71 vs estimate $2.53. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $236.78 (10.9% below current price).
RCL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL paid $0.7500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 22.4%.
RCL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
RCL beat EPS estimates by 9.0%
Reported EPS: $1.63 vs estimate $1.50. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $236.78 (10.9% below current price).
RCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
What is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. stock price today?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) stock price is $265.64 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. do?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. operates as a cruise company worldwide. It operates cruises under the Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea Cruises brands, which comprise a range of itineraries.
What is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. market cap?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. has a market capitalization of $71.86B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is RCL in?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Travel Services industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol RCL.
Is RCL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. trades 12.2% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $236.78
- Current Price: $265.64
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is RCL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is $348.46, implying upside of 31.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $425.00
- Analyst Low Target: $250.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 9.8%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 11.4%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 7.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 15.3%
What are Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $4.3B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 49.4% | Rising |
What is RCL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 17.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 13.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 14.5x
How volatile is RCL stock?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. has a beta of 1.94, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. have?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $826.0M
- Total Debt: $22.04B
- Net Cash Position: $-21.21B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s free cash flow?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. generated $-197.6M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $6.46B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.3%
- Payout Ratio: 22.4%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 29
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -10.4%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. at risk of going bankrupt?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.15, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. have a durable competitive advantage?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is RCL's return on equity (ROE)?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s return on equity is 47.7%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy RCL stock?
RCL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol RCL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is RCL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.?
The current CEO of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is Mr. Jason T. Liberty.
What is RCL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $15.62
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $20.03
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $17.42
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $20.09
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
RCL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings