O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. a safe investment right now?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 4.16 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $82.58 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.16 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ORLY's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.1228 | 1.2 | -0.15 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.1408 | 1.4 | -0.2 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.2101 | 3.3 | 0.69 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 4.5516 | 0.6 | 2.73 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.0752 | 1.0 | 1.08 |
How has ORLY's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.91 | Safe |
| 2023 | 4.43 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.29 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.16 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from ORLY's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $3.07 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.97 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $3.22 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 31.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 26.9x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $105.67 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up ORLY's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ORLY's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 60.0% | — |
| 2023 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2024 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2025 | 60.0% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s dividend safe?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.8B | $16.7B | $14.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.5B | $2.4B | $2.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.6B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 51.6% | 51.2% | 51.2% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our ORLY analysis
ORLY earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.69. Revenue estimate: $4.46B. Our current Fair Value: $82.58 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
ORLY analyst consensus: 81% bullish (22 of 27 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 17 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $105.67 (12.5% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $82.58.
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY missed EPS estimates by 1.9%
Reported EPS: $0.71 vs estimate $0.72. Our Fair Value of $82.58 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY beat EPS estimates by 2.4%
Reported EPS: $0.85 vs estimate $0.83. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $82.58 (12.1% below current price).
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY missed EPS estimates by 0.2%
Reported EPS: $0.78 vs estimate $0.78. Our Fair Value of $82.58 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY stock split 15:1
Stock splits don't change fundamental value, but they can affect per-share metrics. Our models automatically adjust for splits.
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY missed EPS estimates by 5.6%
Reported EPS: $0.62 vs estimate $0.66. Our Fair Value of $82.58 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY missed EPS estimates by 2.7%
Reported EPS: $0.63 vs estimate $0.65. Our Fair Value of $82.58 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
What is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. stock price today?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) stock price is $93.92 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. do?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. It offers new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also provides auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment.
What is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. market cap?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. has a market capitalization of $78.75B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is ORLY in?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Auto Parts industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ORLY.
Is ORLY stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. trades 13.7% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $82.58
- Current Price: $93.92
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is ORLY stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is $105.67, implying upside of 12.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $115.00
- Analyst Low Target: $64.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 6.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 8.4%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 6.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 11.2%
What are O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 51.6% | Stable |
What is ORLY's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 31.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 26.4x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 26.9x
How volatile is ORLY stock?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. has a beta of 0.60, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. have?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $193.8M
- Total Debt: $8.49B
- Net Cash Position: $-8.30B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s free cash flow?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. generated $1.03B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.76B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. pay a dividend?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 4.16, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
How do I buy ORLY stock?
ORLY shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol ORLY
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is ORLY a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.?
The current CEO of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is Mr. Brad W. Beckham.
What is ORLY's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.97
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $3.56
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $3.22
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.58
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ORLY analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings