AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Is AutoZone, Inc. a safe investment right now?
AutoZone, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.8 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $2820.95 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could AutoZone, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.8 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives AZO's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0609 | 1.2 | -0.07 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.2054 | 1.4 | -0.29 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1871 | 3.3 | 0.62 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.6122 | 0.6 | 1.57 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.9785 | 1.0 | 0.98 |
How has AZO's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.39 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.18 | Safe |
| 2024 | 2.98 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.8 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from AZO's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is AutoZone, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $131.82 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (2Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $144.87 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $148.43 | 23 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 25.1x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 21.4x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Declining | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $4,204.74 (23 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does AutoZone, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up AZO's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is AZO's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 60.0% | — |
| 2023 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2024 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2025 | 60.0% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is AutoZone, Inc.'s dividend safe?
AutoZone, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.9B | $18.5B | $16.3B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.5B | $2.7B | $2.4B | Stable |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.5B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 52.6% | 53.1% | 52.1% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our AZO analysis
AZO earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $36.03. Revenue estimate: $4.86B. Our current Fair Value: $2820.95 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
AZO analyst consensus: 81% bullish (21 of 26 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 17 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $4204.74 (17.1% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $2820.95.
AZO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO beat EPS estimates by 1.2%
Reported EPS: $27.63 vs estimate $27.29. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $2820.95 (21.4% below current price).
AZO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO missed EPS estimates by 4.0%
Reported EPS: $31.04 vs estimate $32.35. Our Fair Value of $2820.95 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AZO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO missed EPS estimates by 3.9%
Reported EPS: $48.71 vs estimate $50.68. Our Fair Value of $2820.95 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AZO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO missed EPS estimates by 4.5%
Reported EPS: $35.36 vs estimate $37.01. Our Fair Value of $2820.95 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AZO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AZO missed EPS estimates by 2.4%
Reported EPS: $28.29 vs estimate $28.97. Our Fair Value of $2820.95 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AZO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about AutoZone, Inc.
What is AutoZone, Inc. stock price today?
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) stock price is $3589.99 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does AutoZone, Inc. do?
AutoZone, Inc. operates as a retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil. It offers a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light duty trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products.
What is AutoZone, Inc. market cap?
AutoZone, Inc. has a market capitalization of $59.48B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is AZO in?
AutoZone, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Auto Parts industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol AZO.
Is AZO stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, AutoZone, Inc. trades 27.3% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $2820.95
- Current Price: $3589.99
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is AZO stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 23 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for AutoZone, Inc. is $4204.74, implying upside of 17.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $4800.00
- Analyst Low Target: $3000.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is AutoZone, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for AutoZone, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 8.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 2.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 7.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 17.6%
What are AutoZone, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.5B | Stable |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.8B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 52.6% | Stable |
What is AZO's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 25.1x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 20.5x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 21.4x
How volatile is AZO stock?
AutoZone, Inc. has a beta of 0.41, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does AutoZone, Inc. have?
AutoZone, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $314.0M
- Total Debt: $12.84B
- Net Cash Position: $-12.53B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is AutoZone, Inc.'s free cash flow?
AutoZone, Inc. generated $853.7M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $3.04B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does AutoZone, Inc. pay a dividend?
AutoZone, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is AutoZone, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
AutoZone, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.80, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does AutoZone, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
AutoZone, Inc. scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
How do I buy AZO stock?
AZO shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol AZO
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is AZO a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies AutoZone, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of AutoZone, Inc.?
The current CEO of AutoZone, Inc. is Mr. Philip B. Daniele III.
What is AZO's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $142.88
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $174.81
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $148.43
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $174.57
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
AZO analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings