Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
Is Ross Stores, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Ross Stores, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 7.41 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $201.08 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Ross Stores, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 7.41 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ROST's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1809 | 1.2 | 0.22 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.304 | 1.4 | 0.43 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1852 | 3.3 | 0.61 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 7.8203 | 0.6 | 4.69 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.4632 | 1.0 | 1.46 |
How has ROST's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7.32 | Safe |
| 2024 | 7.29 | Safe |
| 2025 | 7.34 | Safe |
| 2026 | 7.41 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from ROST's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Ross Stores, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $6.91 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $6.61 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $7.35 | 16 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 34.2x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 29.1x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $229.81 (16 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Ross Stores, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up ROST's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ROST's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30.7% | — |
| 2024 | 34.7% | Rising |
| 2025 | 36.5% | Rising |
| 2026 | 37.4% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Ross Stores, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Ross Stores, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 24.5%. FCF covers the dividend 2.4x. 33 consecutive years of payments.
Ross Stores, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.8B | $21.1B | $18.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.1B | $2.1B | $1.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.2B | $1.6B | $1.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 27.7% | 27.8% | 25.4% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our ROST analysis
ROST earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.67. Revenue estimate: $5.56B. Our current Fair Value: $201.08 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
ROST analyst consensus: 78% bullish (14 of 18 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $229.81 (1.5% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $201.08.
ROST filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST paid $0.4450/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 24.5%.
ROST beat EPS estimates by 4.9%
Reported EPS: $2.00 vs estimate $1.91. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $201.08 (11.2% below current price).
ROST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST paid $0.4050/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 24.5%.
ROST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST beat EPS estimates by 10.9%
Reported EPS: $1.58 vs estimate $1.42. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $201.08 (11.2% below current price).
ROST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST paid $0.4050/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 24.5%.
ROST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST beat EPS estimates by 1.4%
Reported EPS: $1.56 vs estimate $1.54. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $201.08 (11.2% below current price).
ROST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST paid $0.4050/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 24.5%.
ROST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST beat EPS estimates by 2.5%
Reported EPS: $1.47 vs estimate $1.43. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $201.08 (11.2% below current price).
ROST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST paid $0.4050/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 24.5%.
ROST missed EPS estimates by 0.4%
Reported EPS: $1.65 vs estimate $1.66. Our Fair Value of $201.08 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ROST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ROST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Ross Stores, Inc.
What is Ross Stores, Inc. stock price today?
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) stock price is $226.34 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Ross Stores, Inc. do?
Ross Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores under the Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS brands in the United States. It offers designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home-fashioned products for the entire family. It sells its products to middle income households and households with lower to more moderate incomes.
What is Ross Stores, Inc. market cap?
Ross Stores, Inc. has a market capitalization of $73.21B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is ROST in?
Ross Stores, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Apparel Retail industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ROST.
Is ROST stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Ross Stores, Inc. trades 12.6% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $201.08
- Current Price: $226.34
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is ROST stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 16 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Ross Stores, Inc. is $229.81, implying upside of 1.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $250.00
- Analyst Low Target: $148.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Ross Stores, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Ross Stores, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 7.2%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 11.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 6.2%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 10.3%
What are Ross Stores, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 27.7% | Rising |
What is ROST's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 34.2x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 28.0x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 29.1x
How volatile is ROST stock?
Ross Stores, Inc. has a beta of 0.93, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Ross Stores, Inc. have?
Ross Stores, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $4.59B
- Total Debt: $5.21B
- Net Cash Position: $-617.9M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Ross Stores, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Ross Stores, Inc. generated $1.64B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $3.03B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Ross Stores, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Ross Stores, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.7%
- Payout Ratio: 24.5%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 33
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -17.2%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Ross Stores, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Ross Stores, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 7.41, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Ross Stores, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Ross Stores, Inc. scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is ROST's return on equity (ROE)?
Ross Stores, Inc.'s return on equity is 36.7%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy ROST stock?
ROST shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol ROST
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is ROST a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Ross Stores, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Ross Stores, Inc.?
The current CEO of Ross Stores, Inc. is Mr. James G. Conroy.
What is ROST's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $6.61
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $8.09
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $7.35
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $8.11
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ROST analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings