Ford Motor Company (F) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Is Ford Motor Company a safe investment right now?
Ford Motor Company's Altman Z-Score of 0.79 places it in the distress zone. Fair value estimate is not available for this stock. Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could Ford Motor Company go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 0.79 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives F's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0297 | 1.2 | 0.04 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0778 | 1.4 | 0.11 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.0363 | 3.3 | -0.12 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.2001 | 0.6 | 0.12 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.6476 | 1.0 | 0.65 |
How has F's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.0 | Distress |
| 2023 | 1.09 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.11 | Distress |
| 2025 | 0.79 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from F's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Ford Motor Company actually worth?
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Ford Motor Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up F's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is F's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -0.9% | — |
| 2023 | 2.8% | Rising |
| 2024 | 4.1% | Rising |
| 2025 | -5.3% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Ford Motor Company's dividend safe?
Can Ford Motor Company afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 64.1%. FCF covers the dividend -0.0x. 49 consecutive years of payments.
Ford Motor Company's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $187.3B | $185.0B | $158.1B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$8.2B | $5.9B | −$2.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $12.5B | $6.7B | −$0.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 0.9% | 8.4% | 10.9% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our F analysis
F earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.19. Revenue estimate: $38.95B.
F analyst consensus: 27% bullish (6 of 22 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 15 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $13.85 (9.7% upside).
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 64.1%.
F filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
F missed EPS estimates by 32.9%
Reported EPS: $0.13 vs estimate $0.19.
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 64.1%.
F filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
F beat EPS estimates by 25.4%
Reported EPS: $0.45 vs estimate $0.36.
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 64.1%.
F filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
F beat EPS estimates by 11.1%
Reported EPS: $0.37 vs estimate $0.33.
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 64.1%.
F filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
F beat EPS estimates by 557.0%
Reported EPS: $0.14 vs estimate $0.02.
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F paid $0.3000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 64.1%.
F filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
F beat EPS estimates by 20.4%
Reported EPS: $0.39 vs estimate $0.32.
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
F filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Ford Motor Company
What is Ford Motor Company stock price today?
Ford Motor Company (F) stock price is $12.63 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Ford Motor Company do?
Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments. It sells Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers; develops EV and digital vehicle technologies, and software; and provides telematics and EV charging solutions.
What is Ford Motor Company market cap?
Ford Motor Company has a market capitalization of $50.66B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is F in?
Ford Motor Company operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Auto Manufacturers industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol F.
Is F stock overvalued or undervalued?
We do not have sufficient earnings data to produce a reliable fair value estimate for Ford Motor Company at this time. Stocks without stable earnings history are difficult to value using traditional models.
What is F stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 20 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Ford Motor Company is $13.85, implying upside of 9.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $18.00
- Analyst Low Target: $10.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Ford Motor Company revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Ford Motor Company:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 0.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 38.6%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 1.2%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 23.8%
What are Ford Motor Company's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $187.3B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$8.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $12.5B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 0.9% | Declining |
What is F's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 6.8x
How volatile is F stock?
Ford Motor Company has a beta of 1.71, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Ford Motor Company have?
Ford Motor Company's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $28.43B
- Total Debt: $165.74B
- Net Cash Position: $-137.31B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Ford Motor Company's free cash flow?
Ford Motor Company generated $1.76B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $21.28B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Ford Motor Company pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Ford Motor Company pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 4.7%
- Payout Ratio: 64.1%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 49
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: 8.5%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: C
Is Ford Motor Company at risk of going bankrupt?
Ford Motor Company's Altman Z-Score is 0.79, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Ford Motor Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Ford Motor Company scores 2.3/5 stars (Weak moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is F's return on equity (ROE)?
Ford Motor Company's return on equity is -20.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy F stock?
F shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol F
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is F a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Ford Motor Company as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Ford Motor Company?
The current CEO of Ford Motor Company is Mr. James Duncan Farley Jr..
What is F's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-2.06
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $1.87
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.51
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $1.87
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
F analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings