Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Is Lucid Group, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Lucid Group, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of -3.18 places it in the distress zone. Fair value estimate is not available for this stock. Moat rating: 2.6/5 stars.
Could Lucid Group, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of -3.18 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives LCID's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0791 | 1.2 | 0.09 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -1.8613 | 1.4 | -2.61 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.3106 | 3.3 | -1.02 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.3299 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.1614 | 1.0 | 0.16 |
How has LCID's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -0.73 | Distress |
| 2023 | -1.75 | Distress |
| 2024 | -1.98 | Distress |
| 2025 | -3.18 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from LCID's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Lucid Group, Inc. actually worth?
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Lucid Group, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.6/5.
What makes up LCID's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is LCID's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -20.1% | — |
| 2023 | -40.5% | Declining |
| 2024 | -44.6% | Declining |
| 2025 | -75.8% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Lucid Group, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Lucid Group, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | $0.8B | $0.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$2.7B | −$2.7B | −$1.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$3.8B | −$2.9B | −$3.3B | Declining |
Recent events that affect our LCID analysis
LCID earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $-2.09. Revenue estimate: $388.9M.
LCID analyst consensus: 17% bullish (2 of 12 analysts)
0 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $12.86 (86.1% upside).
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID missed EPS estimates by 15.2%
Reported EPS: $-3.08 vs estimate $-2.67.
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID missed EPS estimates by 20.6%
Reported EPS: $-2.65 vs estimate $-2.20.
LCID filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID stock split 0:1
Stock splits don't change fundamental value, but they can affect per-share metrics. Our models automatically adjust for splits.
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID missed EPS estimates by 10.8%
Reported EPS: $-2.40 vs estimate $-2.17.
LCID filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID beat EPS estimates by 14.1%
Reported EPS: $-2.00 vs estimate $-2.33.
LCID filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID beat EPS estimates by 22.8%
Reported EPS: $-2.20 vs estimate $-2.85.
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LCID filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Lucid Group, Inc.
What is Lucid Group, Inc. stock price today?
Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) stock price is $6.91 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Lucid Group, Inc. do?
Lucid Group, Inc., a technology company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles (EV), EV powertrains, and battery systems. It provides Lucid Air sedan and Lucid Gravity SUV. It also designs and develops proprietary software in-house for Lucid vehicles.
What is Lucid Group, Inc. market cap?
Lucid Group, Inc. has a market capitalization of $2.53B, classifying it as a mid-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is LCID in?
Lucid Group, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Auto Manufacturers industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol LCID.
Is LCID stock overvalued or undervalued?
We do not have sufficient earnings data to produce a reliable fair value estimate for Lucid Group, Inc. at this time. Stocks without stable earnings history are difficult to value using traditional models.
What is LCID stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 11 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Lucid Group, Inc. is $12.86, implying upside of 86.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $30.00
- Analyst Low Target: $7.50
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Lucid Group, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Lucid Group, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 65.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 29.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 95.5%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 41.6%
What are Lucid Group, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$2.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$3.8B | Declining |
What is LCID's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): -1.6x
How volatile is LCID stock?
Lucid Group, Inc. has a beta of 1.16, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Lucid Group, Inc. have?
Lucid Group, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.63B
- Total Debt: $3.20B
- Net Cash Position: $-1.57B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Lucid Group, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Lucid Group, Inc. generated $-2.40B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $-2.93B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Lucid Group, Inc. pay a dividend?
Lucid Group, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Lucid Group, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Lucid Group, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is -3.18, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Lucid Group, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Lucid Group, Inc. scores 2.6/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is LCID's return on equity (ROE)?
Lucid Group, Inc.'s return on equity is -66.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy LCID stock?
LCID shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol LCID
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is LCID a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Lucid Group, Inc. as Pure Speculation. It lacks the financial stability or valuation margin typically required for value investing. This stock is considered high risk.
Who is the CEO of Lucid Group, Inc.?
The current CEO of Lucid Group, Inc. is Mr. Marc Winterhoff.
What is LCID's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-12.09
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $-4.21
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $-7.16
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $-4.18
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
LCID analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings