The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. a safe investment right now?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.57 places it in the gray zone. Fair value estimate is not available for this stock. Moat rating: 3.0/5 stars.
Could The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.57 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives EL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0821 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5868 | 1.4 | 0.82 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.0343 | 3.3 | -0.11 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.7302 | 0.6 | 1.04 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.7202 | 1.0 | 0.72 |
How has EL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.63 | Safe |
| 2023 | 2.88 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.9 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.57 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from EL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. actually worth?
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.0/5.
What makes up EL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is EL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 29.1% | — |
| 2023 | 12.1% | Declining |
| 2024 | 8.8% | Declining |
| 2025 | -6.1% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 471.4%. FCF covers the dividend 2.4x. 31 consecutive years of payments.
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.3B | $15.6B | $17.7B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$1.1B | $0.4B | $2.4B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | $1.4B | $2.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 74.0% | 71.7% | 75.7% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our EL analysis
EL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.65. Revenue estimate: $3.69B.
EL analyst consensus: 42% bullish (10 of 24 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $97.09 (26.7% upside).
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 471.4%.
EL beat EPS estimates by 6.6%
Reported EPS: $0.89 vs estimate $0.83.
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 471.4%.
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL beat EPS estimates by 81.9%
Reported EPS: $0.32 vs estimate $0.18.
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 471.4%.
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL beat EPS estimates by 1.1%
Reported EPS: $0.09 vs estimate $0.09.
EL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 471.4%.
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL beat EPS estimates by 108.8%
Reported EPS: $0.65 vs estimate $0.31.
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 471.4%.
EL beat EPS estimates by 93.8%
Reported EPS: $0.62 vs estimate $0.32.
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
What is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. stock price today?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) stock price is $76.66 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. do?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. It offers skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, eye care, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as foundations, powders, concealers and setting sprays, lipsticks, lip liners and lip glosses, mascaras, and eyeshadows and eyeliners, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools.
What is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. market cap?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. has a market capitalization of $27.73B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is EL in?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Household & Personal Products industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol EL.
Is EL stock overvalued or undervalued?
We do not have sufficient earnings data to produce a reliable fair value estimate for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. at this time. Stocks without stable earnings history are difficult to value using traditional models.
What is EL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 22 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is $97.09, implying upside of 26.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $125.00
- Analyst Low Target: $65.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 4.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 46.6%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 36.2%
What are The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$1.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 74.0% | Stable |
What is EL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 25.4x
How volatile is EL stock?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. has a beta of 1.25, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. have?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $3.08B
- Total Debt: $9.39B
- Net Cash Position: $-6.31B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s free cash flow?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. generated $1.70B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.67B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.8%
- Payout Ratio: 471.4%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 31
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -30.7%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.57, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. scores 3.0/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is EL's return on equity (ROE)?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s return on equity is -4.3%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy EL stock?
EL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol EL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is EL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.?
The current CEO of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is Mr. Stephane de la Faverie.
What is EL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-0.51
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $3.01
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $2.21
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.02
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
EL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings