Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
Is Constellation Brands, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Constellation Brands, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.45 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $145.95 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 2.6/5 stars.
Could Constellation Brands, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.45 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives STZ's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0147 | 1.2 | -0.02 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5821 | 1.4 | 0.81 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0152 | 3.3 | 0.05 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.8813 | 0.6 | 1.13 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4715 | 1.0 | 0.47 |
How has STZ's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.43 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.25 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.54 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.45 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from STZ's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Constellation Brands, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $10.50 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $9.61 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $11.82 | 22 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 16.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 13.9x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $177.55 (22 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Constellation Brands, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.6/5.
What makes up STZ's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is STZ's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.0% | — |
| 2023 | 3.9% | Stable |
| 2024 | 12.3% | Rising |
| 2025 | 1.8% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Constellation Brands, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Constellation Brands, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 42.5%. FCF covers the dividend 2.9x. 12 consecutive years of payments.
Constellation Brands, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.2B | $10.0B | $8.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.1B | $1.7B | −$0.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.9B | $1.5B | $1.7B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 52.1% | 50.4% | 53.4% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our STZ analysis
STZ earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $3.28. Revenue estimate: $2.42B. Our current Fair Value: $145.95 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
STZ analyst consensus: 57% bullish (13 of 23 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 8 Hold, 0 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $177.55 (13.2% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $145.95.
STZ filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ beat EPS estimates by 10.8%
Reported EPS: $1.90 vs estimate $1.71. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $145.95 (7.0% below current price).
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ paid $1.0200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 42.5%.
STZ filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ beat EPS estimates by 16.2%
Reported EPS: $3.06 vs estimate $2.63. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $145.95 (7.0% below current price).
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ paid $1.0200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 42.5%.
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ beat EPS estimates by 6.5%
Reported EPS: $3.63 vs estimate $3.41. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $145.95 (7.0% below current price).
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ paid $1.0200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 42.5%.
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ missed EPS estimates by 2.3%
Reported EPS: $3.22 vs estimate $3.29. Our Fair Value of $145.95 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ paid $1.0200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 42.5%.
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ beat EPS estimates by 15.9%
Reported EPS: $2.63 vs estimate $2.27. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $145.95 (7.0% below current price).
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ paid $1.0100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 42.5%.
STZ missed EPS estimates by 1.9%
Reported EPS: $3.25 vs estimate $3.31. Our Fair Value of $145.95 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
STZ filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
STZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Constellation Brands, Inc.
What is Constellation Brands, Inc. stock price today?
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) stock price is $156.88 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Constellation Brands, Inc. do?
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Hard Seltzer, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Corona Refresca, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Oro, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brands. It also offers wine under the Cook's California Champagne, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, Schrader, and The Prisoner Wine Company brands; and spirits under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson's Green Brier, and SVEDKA brands.
What is Constellation Brands, Inc. market cap?
Constellation Brands, Inc. has a market capitalization of $27.31B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is STZ in?
Constellation Brands, Inc. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Beverages - Brewers industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol STZ.
Is STZ stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Constellation Brands, Inc. trades 7.5% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $145.95
- Current Price: $156.88
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is STZ stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 22 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Constellation Brands, Inc. is $177.55, implying upside of 13.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $209.00
- Analyst Low Target: $131.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Constellation Brands, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Constellation Brands, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): -0.3%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 0.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 1.9%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 5.4%
What are Constellation Brands, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.9B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 52.1% | Stable |
What is STZ's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 16.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 12.6x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 13.9x
How volatile is STZ stock?
Constellation Brands, Inc. has a beta of 0.43, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Constellation Brands, Inc. have?
Constellation Brands, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $102.4M
- Total Debt: $10.57B
- Net Cash Position: $-10.47B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Constellation Brands, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Constellation Brands, Inc. generated $2.16B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.67B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Constellation Brands, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Constellation Brands, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.6%
- Payout Ratio: 42.5%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 12
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -19.6%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Constellation Brands, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Constellation Brands, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.45, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Constellation Brands, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Constellation Brands, Inc. scores 2.6/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is STZ's return on equity (ROE)?
Constellation Brands, Inc.'s return on equity is 22.6%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy STZ stock?
STZ shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol STZ
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is STZ a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Constellation Brands, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Constellation Brands, Inc.?
The current CEO of Constellation Brands, Inc. is Mr. Nicholas Ian Fink J.D..
What is STZ's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $9.62
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $12.46
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $11.82
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $12.46
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
STZ analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings