FairValueLabs Valuation System Value Investment
BTI

British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating

NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

$56.17 Overvalued 1.34 (2.4%) As of Apr 22, 2026 Not a buy/sell recommendation. See disclaimer.
Overall Verdict High Risk
2.13
Altman Z-ScoreGray Zone
$48.38
Fair ValueOvervalued (-16.1%)
2.6
Moat RatingNarrow moat · eroding
TL;DR · Audit Summary

Is British American Tobacco p.l.c. a safe investment right now?

British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.13 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $48.38 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 2.6/5 stars.

Price Chart · BTI
Section 01 · Financial Health

Could British American Tobacco p.l.c. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis

2.13

Z-Score of 2.13 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.

  • Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
  • 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
  • Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)

What drives BTI's Z-Score?

Altman Z-Score components for BTI
ComponentFormulaValueWeightContribution
A · Working Capital / Total AssetsWC / TA-0.01681.2-0.02
B · Retained Earnings / Total AssetsRE / TA0.24991.40.35
C · EBIT / Total AssetsEBIT / TA0.10783.30.36
D · Market Cap / Total LiabilitiesMCap / TL2.01730.61.21
E · Revenue / Total AssetsRev / TA0.23431.00.23

How has BTI's financial health changed over time?

3.0 Safe1.8 Distress0.01.02.03.04.02022202320242025
BTI Z-Score history
YearZ-ScoreZone
20221.81Gray
20231.29Distress
20241.7Distress
20252.13Gray

Source: Calculated from BTI's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.

Section 02 · Fair Value Estimate

What is British American Tobacco p.l.c. actually worth?

FVL Fair Value$48.38
vs
Market Price$56.17
Overvalued -16.1% Stock trades 16.1% above our estimated fair value of $48.38.

How we calculated this

FVL Valuation Model
InputValueSource
Predicted EPS (α)$4.79Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α
Last Year EPS$4.72Annual report (SEC EDGAR)
Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year)$4.895 analysts consensus
Trailing P/E11.9xCurrent market pricing
Fair P/E (β discount)10.1xTrailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped
Earnings Trend (γ)StableDirectional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS

Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $60.90 (5 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.

Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.

Section 03 · Competitive Moat

Does British American Tobacco p.l.c. have a durable competitive advantage?

★★½☆☆
Narrow moat · eroding

Moat rating: 2.6/5.

What makes up BTI's moat score?

ROIC Stability

★★☆☆☆

ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.

Gross Margin Trend

★★★☆☆

Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.

Switching Costs

★★★☆☆

Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.

How stable is BTI's return on invested capital?

0%-22%-11%-1%9%19%2022202320242025
BTI ROIC history
YearROICTrend
20229.3%
2023-16.5%Declining
20246.2%Rising
202514.3%Rising

Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.

Section 04 · Dividend Safety

Is British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s dividend safe?

A Dividend Safety Grade
Yield4.5%
Payout Ratio68.7%
Consecutive Years40
5Y Growth Rate-22.5%

Can British American Tobacco p.l.c. afford its dividend?

Payout ratio is 68.7%. FCF covers the dividend 2.0x. 40 consecutive years of payments.

Section 05 · Financial Summary

British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s key financial metrics

BTI financial summary
MetricLatest1Y Ago3Y AgoTrend
Revenue $25.6B $25.9B $27.7B Declining
Net Income $7.8B $3.1B $6.7B Rising
Free Cash Flow $5.6B $9.5B $9.7B Declining
Gross Margin 83.5% 82.8% 83.5% Stable
Section 06 · Lab Signals

Recent events that affect our BTI analysis

EARNINGS

BTI earnings report scheduled

Lab Impact

Upcoming report. Our current Fair Value: $48.38 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.

ANALYST

BTI analyst consensus: 67% bullish (4 of 6 analysts)

Lab Impact

0 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $60.90 (8.4% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $48.38.

DIVIDEND

BTI paid $0.8350/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 68.7%.

DIVIDEND

BTI paid $0.7490/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 68.7%.

DIVIDEND

BTI paid $0.7490/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 68.7%.

DIVIDEND

BTI paid $0.7490/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 68.7%.

DIVIDEND

BTI paid $0.7490/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 68.7%.

Section 07 · FAQ

Common questions about British American Tobacco p.l.c.

What is British American Tobacco p.l.c. stock price today?

British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) stock price is $56.17 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.

What does British American Tobacco p.l.c. do?

British American Tobacco p.l.c. provides tobacco and nicotine products to consumers in the United States, Europe, Latin America, Canada, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Africa. It offers vapour products; heated products, which consists of a battery-powered device and a plant-based substance consumable that is heated; modern oral products, such as nicotine pouches; combustibles, including cigarette sticks and other tobacco stick products; traditional oral products, such as snus and moist snuff; and fine cut/roll-your-own tobacco products.

What is British American Tobacco p.l.c. market cap?

British American Tobacco p.l.c. has a market capitalization of $123.35B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.

What sector and industry is BTI in?

British American Tobacco p.l.c. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Tobacco industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol BTI.

Is BTI stock overvalued or undervalued?

Based on our valuation model, British American Tobacco p.l.c. trades 16.1% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.

  • FairValueLabs Fair Value: $48.38
  • Current Price: $56.17
  • Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is BTI stock forecast and analyst target price?

Based on 5 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for British American Tobacco p.l.c. is $60.90, implying upside of 8.4% from the current price.

  • Analyst High Target: $72.00
  • Analyst Low Target: $40.50

Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.

Is British American Tobacco p.l.c. revenue and earnings growing?

Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for British American Tobacco p.l.c.:

  • Revenue growth (current year est.): 2.9%
  • EPS growth (current year est.): 1.8%
  • Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.3%
  • EPS growth (next year est.): 8.2%
What are British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s key financial metrics?
MetricLatestTrend
Revenue$25.6BDeclining
Net Income$7.8BRising
Free Cash Flow$5.6BDeclining
Gross Margin83.5%Stable
What is BTI's P/E ratio?

The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:

  • Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 11.9x
  • Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 10.6x
  • FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 10.1x
How volatile is BTI stock?

British American Tobacco p.l.c. has a beta of 0.12, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.

How much cash and debt does British American Tobacco p.l.c. have?

British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s balance sheet shows:

  • Total Cash: $3.84B
  • Total Debt: $35.07B
  • Net Cash Position: $-31.23B

A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.

What is British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s free cash flow?

British American Tobacco p.l.c. generated $2.99B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $6.34B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.

Does British American Tobacco p.l.c. pay a dividend, and is it safe?

Yes, British American Tobacco p.l.c. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:

  • Dividend Yield: 4.5%
  • Payout Ratio: 68.7%
  • Consecutive Years Paid: 40
  • 5-Year Dividend Growth: -22.5%
  • FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is British American Tobacco p.l.c. at risk of going bankrupt?

British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.13, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.

Does British American Tobacco p.l.c. have a durable competitive advantage?

British American Tobacco p.l.c. scores 2.6/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:

  • ROIC Stability: 2/5
  • Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
  • Switching Costs: 3/5

A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.

What is BTI's return on equity (ROE)?

British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s return on equity is 15.8%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.

How do I buy BTI stock?

BTI shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:

  1. Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
  2. Search for ticker symbol BTI
  3. Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares

This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.

Is BTI a value stock or speculative?

FairValueLabs classifies British American Tobacco p.l.c. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.

Who is the CEO of British American Tobacco p.l.c.?

The current CEO of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is Mr. Tadeu Luiz Marroco.

What is BTI's earnings per share (EPS)?

Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:

  • Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $4.72
  • Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $5.29
  • Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $4.89
  • Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $5.29

FairValueLabs Disclaimer

All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.

This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.

BTI analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings