McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Is McCormick & Company, Incorporated a safe investment right now?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated's Altman Z-Score of 2.23 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $43.34 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.3/5 stars.
Could McCormick & Company, Incorporated go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.23 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MKC's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.07 | 1.2 | -0.08 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2891 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.084 | 3.3 | 0.28 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.8618 | 0.6 | 1.12 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.5182 | 1.0 | 0.52 |
How has MKC's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.94 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.09 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.18 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.23 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from MKC's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is McCormick & Company, Incorporated actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $6.02 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.93 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $3.10 | 13 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 8.4x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 7.2x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $62.69 (13 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does McCormick & Company, Incorporated have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.3/5.
What makes up MKC's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MKC's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 9.8% | — |
| 2023 | 10.6% | Stable |
| 2024 | 11.5% | Stable |
| 2025 | 11.4% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is McCormick & Company, Incorporated's dividend safe?
Can McCormick & Company, Incorporated afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 30.0%. FCF covers the dividend 1.0x. 41 consecutive years of payments.
McCormick & Company, Incorporated's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.8B | $6.7B | $6.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.8B | $0.8B | $0.7B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | $0.6B | $0.4B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 37.9% | 38.5% | 35.8% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our MKC analysis
MKC earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.70. Revenue estimate: $1.91B. Our current Fair Value: $43.34 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MKC analyst consensus: 53% bullish (8 of 15 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $62.69 (21.8% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $43.34.
MKC paid $0.4800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 30.0%.
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC beat EPS estimates by 10.7%
Reported EPS: $0.66 vs estimate $0.60. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $43.34 (15.8% below current price).
MKC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC missed EPS estimates by 1.8%
Reported EPS: $0.86 vs estimate $0.88. Our Fair Value of $43.34 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
MKC filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC paid $0.4800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 30.0%.
MKC paid $0.4500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 30.0%.
MKC beat EPS estimates by 4.2%
Reported EPS: $0.85 vs estimate $0.82. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $43.34 (15.8% below current price).
MKC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC paid $0.4500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 30.0%.
MKC beat EPS estimates by 5.7%
Reported EPS: $0.69 vs estimate $0.65. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $43.34 (15.8% below current price).
MKC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC paid $0.4500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 30.0%.
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC missed EPS estimates by 6.8%
Reported EPS: $0.60 vs estimate $0.64. Our Fair Value of $43.34 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
MKC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC beat EPS estimates by 4.3%
Reported EPS: $0.80 vs estimate $0.77. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $43.34 (15.8% below current price).
MKC filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MKC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about McCormick & Company, Incorporated
What is McCormick & Company, Incorporated stock price today?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) stock price is $51.47 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does McCormick & Company, Incorporated do?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and distributes herbs, spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavorful products to the food industry. It operates in two segments, Consumer and Flavor Solutions. The Consumer segment offers spices, herbs, and seasonings, as well as condiments and sauces, and desserts.
What is McCormick & Company, Incorporated market cap?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated has a market capitalization of $13.84B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is MKC in?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Packaged Foods industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol MKC.
Is MKC stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, McCormick & Company, Incorporated trades 18.8% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $43.34
- Current Price: $51.47
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is MKC stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 13 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for McCormick & Company, Incorporated is $62.69, implying upside of 21.8% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $77.00
- Analyst Low Target: $52.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is McCormick & Company, Incorporated revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for McCormick & Company, Incorporated:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 15.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 3.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.8%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 8.0%
What are McCormick & Company, Incorporated's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 37.9% | Rising |
What is MKC's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 8.4x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 15.4x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 7.2x
How volatile is MKC stock?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated has a beta of 0.71, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does McCormick & Company, Incorporated have?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $177.7M
- Total Debt: $4.92B
- Net Cash Position: $-4.75B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is McCormick & Company, Incorporated's free cash flow?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated generated $372.8M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $897.6M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does McCormick & Company, Incorporated pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, McCormick & Company, Incorporated pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 3.5%
- Payout Ratio: 30.0%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 41
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -19.2%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is McCormick & Company, Incorporated at risk of going bankrupt?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated's Altman Z-Score is 2.23, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does McCormick & Company, Incorporated have a durable competitive advantage?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated scores 3.3/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is MKC's return on equity (ROE)?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated's return on equity is 25.4%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy MKC stock?
MKC shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MKC
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MKC a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies McCormick & Company, Incorporated as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of McCormick & Company, Incorporated?
The current CEO of McCormick & Company, Incorporated is Mr. Brendan M. Foley.
What is MKC's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $6.10
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $3.35
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $3.10
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.35
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MKC analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings