The Hershey Company (HSY) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Confectioners
Is The Hershey Company a safe investment right now?
The Hershey Company's Altman Z-Score of 4.01 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $219.92 (Buy Zone). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could The Hershey Company go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.01 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives HSY's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.2192 | 1.2 | -0.26 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3999 | 1.4 | 0.56 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1047 | 3.3 | 0.35 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 4.1998 | 0.6 | 2.52 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.8509 | 1.0 | 0.85 |
How has HSY's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.96 | Safe |
| 2023 | 5.05 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.93 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.01 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from HSY's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is The Hershey Company actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $5.96 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $4.34 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $8.40 | 23 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 43.5x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 36.9x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $225.48 (23 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does The Hershey Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up HSY's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is HSY's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25.7% | — |
| 2023 | 26.4% | Stable |
| 2024 | 27.2% | Stable |
| 2025 | 14.4% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is The Hershey Company's dividend safe?
Can The Hershey Company afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 126.3%. FCF covers the dividend 2.3x. 42 consecutive years of payments.
The Hershey Company's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.7B | $11.2B | $10.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.9B | $2.2B | $1.6B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.7B | $1.9B | $1.8B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 33.6% | 47.3% | 43.2% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our HSY analysis
HSY earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.04. Revenue estimate: $3.03B. Our current Fair Value: $219.92 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
HSY analyst consensus: 28% bullish (7 of 25 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 17 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $225.48 (19.5% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $219.92.
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY paid $1.4520/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 126.3%.
HSY beat EPS estimates by 21.8%
Reported EPS: $1.71 vs estimate $1.40. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $219.92 (16.6% above current price).
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY paid $1.3700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 126.3%.
HSY beat EPS estimates by 22.2%
Reported EPS: $1.30 vs estimate $1.06. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $219.92 (16.6% above current price).
HSY filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY paid $1.3700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 126.3%.
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY beat EPS estimates by 20.4%
Reported EPS: $1.21 vs estimate $1.00. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $219.92 (16.6% above current price).
HSY filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY paid $1.3700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 126.3%.
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY beat EPS estimates by 8.0%
Reported EPS: $2.09 vs estimate $1.93. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $219.92 (16.6% above current price).
HSY filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY paid $1.3700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 126.3%.
HSY beat EPS estimates by 13.3%
Reported EPS: $2.69 vs estimate $2.38. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $219.92 (16.6% above current price).
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HSY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about The Hershey Company
What is The Hershey Company stock price today?
The Hershey Company (HSY) stock price is $188.65 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does The Hershey Company do?
The Hershey Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products and pantry items in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International. It offers chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery products; gum and mint refreshment products, including mints, chewing gums, and bubble gums; protein bars; pantry items, such as baking ingredients, toppings, beverages, and sundae syrups; and snack items comprising spreads, bars, snack bites, mixes, popcorn, and pretzels.
What is The Hershey Company market cap?
The Hershey Company has a market capitalization of $38.24B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is HSY in?
The Hershey Company operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Confectioners industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol HSY.
Is HSY stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, The Hershey Company trades 14.2% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $219.92
- Current Price: $188.65
- Valuation Zone: Buy Zone
What is HSY stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 23 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for The Hershey Company is $225.48, implying upside of 19.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $260.00
- Analyst Low Target: $166.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is The Hershey Company revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for The Hershey Company:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 4.8%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 33.1%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 2.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 17.6%
What are The Hershey Company's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.9B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.7B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 33.6% | Declining |
What is HSY's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 43.5x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 19.1x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 36.9x
How volatile is HSY stock?
The Hershey Company has a beta of 0.17, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does The Hershey Company have?
The Hershey Company's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $925.9M
- Total Debt: $5.74B
- Net Cash Position: $-4.81B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is The Hershey Company's free cash flow?
The Hershey Company generated $1.45B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.28B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does The Hershey Company pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, The Hershey Company pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.9%
- Payout Ratio: 126.3%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 42
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -15.7%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is The Hershey Company at risk of going bankrupt?
The Hershey Company's Altman Z-Score is 4.01, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does The Hershey Company have a durable competitive advantage?
The Hershey Company scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is HSY's return on equity (ROE)?
The Hershey Company's return on equity is 18.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy HSY stock?
HSY shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol HSY
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is HSY a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies The Hershey Company as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of The Hershey Company?
The current CEO of The Hershey Company is Mr. Kirk C. Tanner.
What is HSY's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $4.34
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $9.87
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $8.40
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $9.87
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
HSY analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings