Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
Is Altria Group, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Altria Group, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 4.58 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $63.25 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Altria Group, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.58 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MO's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.092 | 1.2 | -0.11 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 1.0124 | 1.4 | 1.42 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.3017 | 3.3 | 1.0 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.8328 | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.5751 | 1.0 | 0.58 |
How has MO's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.0 | Safe |
| 2023 | 4.07 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.99 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.58 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from MO's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Altria Group, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $4.72 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $4.12 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $5.62 | 12 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 15.8x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 13.4x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $65.58 (12 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Altria Group, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up MO's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MO's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 37.5% | — |
| 2023 | 53.2% | Rising |
| 2024 | 60.0% | Rising |
| 2025 | 47.6% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Altria Group, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Altria Group, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 101.0%. FCF covers the dividend 1.2x. 65 consecutive years of payments.
Altria Group, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $20.1B | $20.4B | $20.7B | Stable |
| Net Income | $6.9B | $11.3B | $5.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.1B | $8.6B | $8.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 72.2% | 70.3% | 68.9% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our MO analysis
MO earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.25. Revenue estimate: $4.58B. Our current Fair Value: $63.25 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MO analyst consensus: 36% bullish (5 of 14 analysts)
0 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $65.58 (0.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $63.25.
MO paid $1.0600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 101.0%.
MO filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO missed EPS estimates by 1.3%
Reported EPS: $1.30 vs estimate $1.32. Our Fair Value of $63.25 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO paid $1.0600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 101.0%.
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO beat EPS estimates by 0.1%
Reported EPS: $1.45 vs estimate $1.45. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $63.25 (3.0% below current price).
MO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO paid $1.0600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 101.0%.
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO beat EPS estimates by 4.0%
Reported EPS: $1.44 vs estimate $1.38. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $63.25 (3.0% below current price).
MO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO paid $1.0200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 101.0%.
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO beat EPS estimates by 3.5%
Reported EPS: $1.23 vs estimate $1.19. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $63.25 (3.0% below current price).
MO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO paid $1.0200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 101.0%.
MO filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO beat EPS estimates by 0.8%
Reported EPS: $1.29 vs estimate $1.28. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $63.25 (3.0% below current price).
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Altria Group, Inc.
What is Altria Group, Inc. stock price today?
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) stock price is $65.18 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Altria Group, Inc. do?
Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand; and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand. It sells its products to distributors, as well as large retail organizations, such as chain stores.
What is Altria Group, Inc. market cap?
Altria Group, Inc. has a market capitalization of $108.97B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is MO in?
Altria Group, Inc. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Tobacco industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol MO.
Is MO stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Altria Group, Inc. trades 3.0% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $63.25
- Current Price: $65.18
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is MO stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 12 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Altria Group, Inc. is $65.58, implying upside of 0.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $74.00
- Analyst Low Target: $50.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Altria Group, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Altria Group, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 0.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 3.7%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 0.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 3.4%
What are Altria Group, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $20.1B | Stable |
| Net Income | $6.9B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 72.2% | Stable |
What is MO's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 15.8x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 11.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 13.4x
How volatile is MO stock?
Altria Group, Inc. has a beta of 0.45, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Altria Group, Inc. have?
Altria Group, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $4.47B
- Total Debt: $25.71B
- Net Cash Position: $-21.24B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Altria Group, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Altria Group, Inc. generated $9.23B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $9.29B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Altria Group, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Altria Group, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 6.4%
- Payout Ratio: 101.0%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 65
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -21.3%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: C
Is Altria Group, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Altria Group, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 4.58, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Altria Group, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Altria Group, Inc. scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
How do I buy MO stock?
MO shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MO
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MO a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Altria Group, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Altria Group, Inc.?
The current CEO of Altria Group, Inc. is Mr. William F. Gifford Jr..
What is MO's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $4.12
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $5.81
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $5.62
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $5.81
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MO analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings