FairValueLabs Valuation System Value Investment
HRL

Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating

NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

$21.43 Watch Zone 0.18 (0.9%) As of Apr 22, 2026 Not a buy/sell recommendation. See disclaimer.
Overall Verdict Caution
3.35
Altman Z-ScoreSafe Zone
$23.78
Fair ValueWatch Zone (9.9%)
3.0
Moat RatingNarrow moat
TL;DR · Audit Summary

Is Hormel Foods Corporation a safe investment right now?

Hormel Foods Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 3.35 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $23.78 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.0/5 stars.

Price Chart · HRL
Section 01 · Financial Health

Could Hormel Foods Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis

3.35

Z-Score of 3.35 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.

  • Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
  • 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
  • Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)

What drives HRL's Z-Score?

Altman Z-Score components for HRL
ComponentFormulaValueWeightContribution
A · Working Capital / Total AssetsWC / TA0.15121.20.18
B · Retained Earnings / Total AssetsRE / TA0.56121.40.79
C · EBIT / Total AssetsEBIT / TA0.05543.30.18
D · Market Cap / Total LiabilitiesMCap / TL2.1530.61.29
E · Revenue / Total AssetsRev / TA0.90391.00.9

How has HRL's financial health changed over time?

3.0 Safe1.8 Distress0.01.02.03.04.02022202320242025
HRL Z-Score history
YearZ-ScoreZone
20223.46Safe
20233.27Safe
20243.43Safe
20253.35Safe

Source: Calculated from HRL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.

Section 02 · Fair Value Estimate

What is Hormel Foods Corporation actually worth?

FVL Fair Value$23.78
vs
Market Price$21.43
Watch Zone 9.9% Stock trades 9.9% below our estimated fair value of $23.78.

How we calculated this

FVL Valuation Model
InputValueSource
Predicted EPS (α)$1.16Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α
Last Year EPS$0.87Annual report (SEC EDGAR)
Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year)$1.478 analysts consensus
Trailing P/E24.1xCurrent market pricing
Fair P/E (β discount)20.5xTrailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped
Earnings Trend (γ)AcceleratingDirectional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS

Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $26.75 (8 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.

Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.

Section 03 · Competitive Moat

Does Hormel Foods Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?

★★★☆☆
Narrow moat

Moat rating: 3.0/5.

What makes up HRL's moat score?

ROIC Stability

★★★☆☆

ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.

Gross Margin Trend

★★★☆☆

Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.

Switching Costs

★★★☆☆

Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.

How stable is HRL's return on invested capital?

0%-5%1%6%12%17%2022202320242025
HRL ROIC history
YearROICTrend
202212.4%
20239.8%Declining
202410.3%Stable
20256.9%Declining

Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.

Section 04 · Dividend Safety

Is Hormel Foods Corporation's dividend safe?

B Dividend Safety Grade
Yield5.5%
Payout Ratio130.6%
Consecutive Years40
5Y Growth Rate-9.8%

Can Hormel Foods Corporation afford its dividend?

Payout ratio is 130.6%. FCF covers the dividend 1.5x. 40 consecutive years of payments.

Section 05 · Financial Summary

Hormel Foods Corporation's key financial metrics

HRL financial summary
MetricLatest1Y Ago3Y AgoTrend
Revenue $12.1B $11.9B $12.5B Stable
Net Income $0.5B $0.8B $1.0B Declining
Free Cash Flow $0.5B $1.0B $0.9B Declining
Gross Margin 15.6% 17.0% 17.4% Declining
Section 06 · Lab Signals

Recent events that affect our HRL analysis

EARNINGS

HRL earnings report scheduled

Lab Impact

Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.36. Revenue estimate: $2.96B. Our current Fair Value: $23.78 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.

ANALYST

HRL analyst consensus: 30% bullish (3 of 10 analysts)

Lab Impact

2 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $26.75 (24.8% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $23.78.

DIVIDEND

HRL paid $0.2930/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 130.6%.

EARNINGS

HRL beat EPS estimates by 6.1%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $0.34 vs estimate $0.32. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $23.78 (11.0% above current price).

FILING

HRL filed quarterly report (10-Q)

Lab Impact

Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

DIVIDEND

HRL paid $0.2930/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 130.6%.

FILING

HRL filed annual report (10-K)

Lab Impact

Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →

EARNINGS

HRL beat EPS estimates by 6.0%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $0.32 vs estimate $0.30. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $23.78 (11.0% above current price).

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

DIVIDEND

HRL paid $0.2900/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 130.6%.

EARNINGS

HRL missed EPS estimates by 14.6%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $0.35 vs estimate $0.41. Our Fair Value of $23.78 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.

FILING

HRL filed quarterly report (10-Q)

Lab Impact

Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

DIVIDEND

HRL paid $0.2900/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 130.6%.

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

EARNINGS

HRL beat EPS estimates by 3.3%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $0.35 vs estimate $0.34. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $23.78 (11.0% above current price).

FILING

HRL filed quarterly report (10-Q)

Lab Impact

Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

DIVIDEND

HRL paid $0.2900/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 130.6%.

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

EARNINGS

HRL missed EPS estimates by 6.6%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $0.35 vs estimate $0.37. Our Fair Value of $23.78 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.

FILING

HRL filed quarterly report (10-Q)

Lab Impact

Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

HRL filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

DIVIDEND

HRL paid $0.2900/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 130.6%.

Section 07 · FAQ

Common questions about Hormel Foods Corporation

What is Hormel Foods Corporation stock price today?

Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) stock price is $21.43 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.

What does Hormel Foods Corporation do?

Hormel Foods Corporation develops, processes, and distributes various meat, nuts, and other food products to foodservice, convenience store, and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Retail, Foodservice, and International segments. It provides various perishable products, including resh meats, frozen items, refrigerated meal solutions, bacon, sausages, hams, guacamole, and other items that require refrigeration; and shelf-stable products, such as canned luncheon meats, nut butters, snack nuts, chili, shelf-stable microwaveable meals, hash, stews, tortillas, salsas, tortilla chips, and other items that do not require refrigeration.

What is Hormel Foods Corporation market cap?

Hormel Foods Corporation has a market capitalization of $11.79B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.

What sector and industry is HRL in?

Hormel Foods Corporation operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Packaged Foods industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol HRL.

Is HRL stock overvalued or undervalued?

Based on our valuation model, Hormel Foods Corporation trades 9.9% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.

  • FairValueLabs Fair Value: $23.78
  • Current Price: $21.43
  • Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is HRL stock forecast and analyst target price?

Based on 8 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Hormel Foods Corporation is $26.75, implying upside of 24.8% from the current price.

  • Analyst High Target: $30.00
  • Analyst Low Target: $23.00

Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.

Is Hormel Foods Corporation revenue and earnings growing?

Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Hormel Foods Corporation:

  • Revenue growth (current year est.): 1.6%
  • EPS growth (current year est.): 7.3%
  • Revenue growth (next year est.): 1.6%
  • EPS growth (next year est.): 6.9%
What are Hormel Foods Corporation's key financial metrics?
MetricLatestTrend
Revenue$12.1BStable
Net Income$0.5BDeclining
Free Cash Flow$0.5BDeclining
Gross Margin15.6%Declining
What is HRL's P/E ratio?

The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:

  • Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 24.1x
  • Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 13.6x
  • FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 20.5x
How volatile is HRL stock?

Hormel Foods Corporation has a beta of 0.36, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.

How much cash and debt does Hormel Foods Corporation have?

Hormel Foods Corporation's balance sheet shows:

  • Total Cash: $574.3M
  • Total Debt: $250.0M
  • Net Cash Position: $324.3M

A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.

What is Hormel Foods Corporation's free cash flow?

Hormel Foods Corporation generated $381.5M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $885.3M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.

Does Hormel Foods Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?

Yes, Hormel Foods Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:

  • Dividend Yield: 5.5%
  • Payout Ratio: 130.6%
  • Consecutive Years Paid: 40
  • 5-Year Dividend Growth: -9.8%
  • FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Hormel Foods Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?

Hormel Foods Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 3.35, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.

Does Hormel Foods Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?

Hormel Foods Corporation scores 3.0/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:

  • ROIC Stability: 3/5
  • Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
  • Switching Costs: 3/5

A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.

What is HRL's return on equity (ROE)?

Hormel Foods Corporation's return on equity is 6.1%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.

How do I buy HRL stock?

HRL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:

  1. Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
  2. Search for ticker symbol HRL
  3. Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares

This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.

Is HRL a value stock or speculative?

FairValueLabs classifies Hormel Foods Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.

Who is the CEO of Hormel Foods Corporation?

The current CEO of Hormel Foods Corporation is Mr. Jeffrey M. Ettinger.

What is HRL's earnings per share (EPS)?

Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:

  • Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.89
  • Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $1.57
  • Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.47
  • Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $1.57

FairValueLabs Disclaimer

All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.

This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.

HRL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings