Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Is Hormel Foods Corporation a safe investment right now?
Hormel Foods Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 3.35 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $23.78 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.0/5 stars.
Could Hormel Foods Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.35 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives HRL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1512 | 1.2 | 0.18 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5612 | 1.4 | 0.79 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0554 | 3.3 | 0.18 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.153 | 0.6 | 1.29 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.9039 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
How has HRL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.46 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.27 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.43 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.35 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from HRL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Hormel Foods Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.16 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $0.87 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $1.47 | 8 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 24.1x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 20.5x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $26.75 (8 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Hormel Foods Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.0/5.
What makes up HRL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is HRL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12.4% | — |
| 2023 | 9.8% | Declining |
| 2024 | 10.3% | Stable |
| 2025 | 6.9% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Hormel Foods Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Hormel Foods Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 130.6%. FCF covers the dividend 1.5x. 40 consecutive years of payments.
Hormel Foods Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.1B | $11.9B | $12.5B | Stable |
| Net Income | $0.5B | $0.8B | $1.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.5B | $1.0B | $0.9B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 15.6% | 17.0% | 17.4% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our HRL analysis
HRL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.36. Revenue estimate: $2.96B. Our current Fair Value: $23.78 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
HRL analyst consensus: 30% bullish (3 of 10 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $26.75 (24.8% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $23.78.
HRL paid $0.2930/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 130.6%.
HRL beat EPS estimates by 6.1%
Reported EPS: $0.34 vs estimate $0.32. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $23.78 (11.0% above current price).
HRL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL paid $0.2930/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 130.6%.
HRL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL beat EPS estimates by 6.0%
Reported EPS: $0.32 vs estimate $0.30. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $23.78 (11.0% above current price).
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL paid $0.2900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 130.6%.
HRL missed EPS estimates by 14.6%
Reported EPS: $0.35 vs estimate $0.41. Our Fair Value of $23.78 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
HRL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL paid $0.2900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 130.6%.
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL beat EPS estimates by 3.3%
Reported EPS: $0.35 vs estimate $0.34. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $23.78 (11.0% above current price).
HRL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL paid $0.2900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 130.6%.
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL missed EPS estimates by 6.6%
Reported EPS: $0.35 vs estimate $0.37. Our Fair Value of $23.78 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
HRL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HRL paid $0.2900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 130.6%.
Common questions about Hormel Foods Corporation
What is Hormel Foods Corporation stock price today?
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) stock price is $21.43 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Hormel Foods Corporation do?
Hormel Foods Corporation develops, processes, and distributes various meat, nuts, and other food products to foodservice, convenience store, and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Retail, Foodservice, and International segments. It provides various perishable products, including resh meats, frozen items, refrigerated meal solutions, bacon, sausages, hams, guacamole, and other items that require refrigeration; and shelf-stable products, such as canned luncheon meats, nut butters, snack nuts, chili, shelf-stable microwaveable meals, hash, stews, tortillas, salsas, tortilla chips, and other items that do not require refrigeration.
What is Hormel Foods Corporation market cap?
Hormel Foods Corporation has a market capitalization of $11.79B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is HRL in?
Hormel Foods Corporation operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Packaged Foods industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol HRL.
Is HRL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Hormel Foods Corporation trades 9.9% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $23.78
- Current Price: $21.43
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is HRL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Hormel Foods Corporation is $26.75, implying upside of 24.8% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $30.00
- Analyst Low Target: $23.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Hormel Foods Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Hormel Foods Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 1.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 7.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 1.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 6.9%
What are Hormel Foods Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.1B | Stable |
| Net Income | $0.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.5B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 15.6% | Declining |
What is HRL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 24.1x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 13.6x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 20.5x
How volatile is HRL stock?
Hormel Foods Corporation has a beta of 0.36, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Hormel Foods Corporation have?
Hormel Foods Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $574.3M
- Total Debt: $250.0M
- Net Cash Position: $324.3M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Hormel Foods Corporation's free cash flow?
Hormel Foods Corporation generated $381.5M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $885.3M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Hormel Foods Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Hormel Foods Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 5.5%
- Payout Ratio: 130.6%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 40
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -9.8%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Hormel Foods Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Hormel Foods Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 3.35, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Hormel Foods Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Hormel Foods Corporation scores 3.0/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is HRL's return on equity (ROE)?
Hormel Foods Corporation's return on equity is 6.1%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy HRL stock?
HRL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol HRL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is HRL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Hormel Foods Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Hormel Foods Corporation?
The current CEO of Hormel Foods Corporation is Mr. Jeffrey M. Ettinger.
What is HRL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.89
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $1.57
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.47
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $1.57
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
HRL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings