ConAgra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Is ConAgra Brands, Inc. a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for ConAgra Brands, Inc. (CAG) stock is $14.38, versus a market price of $15.62 — Watch — Analyst Anchor. Analyst Consensus (16 analysts) — EPS model not applicable at negative earnings.
ConAgra Brands, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.11 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $14.38 (Watch — Analyst Anchor). Moat rating: 2.6/5 stars.
Could ConAgra Brands, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.11 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CAG's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0177 | 1.2 | -0.02 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2415 | 1.4 | 0.34 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.083 | 3.3 | -0.27 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.6847 | 0.6 | 0.41 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.6531 | 1.0 | 0.65 |
How has CAG's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.45 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.52 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.56 | Distress |
| 2026 | 1.11 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from CAG's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
ConAgra Brands, Inc. Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.00 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Trailing P/E | 0.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 0.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | N/A | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $14.38 (16 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does ConAgra Brands, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.6/5.
What makes up CAG's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CAG's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7.3% | — |
| 2024 | 6.2% | Declining |
| 2025 | 9.3% | Rising |
| 2026 | -10.5% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is ConAgra Brands, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can ConAgra Brands, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 79.1%. FCF covers the dividend 1.0x. 42 consecutive years of payments.
US dividend withholding tax of 30% applies to non-US tax residents. This rate may be reduced under a tax treaty between the US and your country of residence. The adjusted yield shown assumes the default 30% rate. For informational purposes only — consult a qualified tax advisor.
ConAgra Brands, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.3B | $11.6B | $12.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$1.9B | $1.2B | $0.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | $1.3B | $0.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 23.9% | 25.9% | 26.6% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our CAG analysis
CAG earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.28. Revenue estimate: $2.58B. Our current Fair Value: $14.38 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
CAG analyst consensus: 12% bullish (2 of 17 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 10 Hold, 3 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $14.38 (7.9% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $14.38.
CAG paid $0.1750/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 79.1%.
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG beat EPS estimates by 2.8%
Reported EPS: $0.47 vs estimate $0.46. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $14.38 (7.9% below current price).
CAG filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 79.1%.
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG missed EPS estimates by 2.6%
Reported EPS: $0.39 vs estimate $0.40. Our Fair Value of $14.38 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CAG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 79.1%.
CAG beat EPS estimates by 3.2%
Reported EPS: $0.45 vs estimate $0.44. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $14.38 (7.9% below current price).
CAG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 79.1%.
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG beat EPS estimates by 17.4%
Reported EPS: $0.39 vs estimate $0.33. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $14.38 (7.9% below current price).
CAG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 79.1%.
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG missed EPS estimates by 3.6%
Reported EPS: $0.56 vs estimate $0.58. Our Fair Value of $14.38 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CAG filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 79.1%.
CAG missed EPS estimates by 3.2%
Reported EPS: $0.51 vs estimate $0.53. Our Fair Value of $14.38 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CAG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CAG paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 79.1%.
Common questions about ConAgra Brands, Inc.
What is ConAgra Brands, Inc. stock price today?
ConAgra Brands, Inc. (CAG) stock price is $15.62 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does ConAgra Brands, Inc. do?
Conagra Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a branded consumer packaged goods food company primarily in the United States. It operates in four segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice. The Grocery & Snacks segment primarily offers shelf stable food products through various retail channels.
What is ConAgra Brands, Inc. market cap?
ConAgra Brands, Inc. has a market capitalization of $7.48B, classifying it as a mid-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is CAG in?
ConAgra Brands, Inc. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Packaged Foods industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol CAG.
Is CAG stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, ConAgra Brands, Inc. trades 8.6% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $14.38
- Current Price: $15.62
- Valuation Zone: Watch — Analyst Anchor
What is CAG stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 16 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for ConAgra Brands, Inc. is $14.38, implying downside of 7.9% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $23.00
- Analyst Low Target: $12.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is ConAgra Brands, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for ConAgra Brands, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): -3.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): -15.9%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 0.5%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 7.3%
What are ConAgra Brands, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$1.9B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 23.9% | Declining |
What is CAG's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 10.1x
How volatile is CAG stock?
ConAgra Brands, Inc. has a beta of -0.05, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does ConAgra Brands, Inc. have?
ConAgra Brands, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $218.0M
- Total Debt: $7.48B
- Net Cash Position: $-7.26B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is ConAgra Brands, Inc.'s free cash flow?
ConAgra Brands, Inc. generated $859.0M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.40B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does ConAgra Brands, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, ConAgra Brands, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 9.1%
- Payout Ratio: 79.1%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 42
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -5.7%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is ConAgra Brands, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
ConAgra Brands, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 1.11, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does ConAgra Brands, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
ConAgra Brands, Inc. scores 2.6/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is CAG's return on equity (ROE)?
ConAgra Brands, Inc.'s return on equity is -25.1%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CAG stock?
CAG shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CAG
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CAG a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies ConAgra Brands, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of ConAgra Brands, Inc.?
The current CEO of ConAgra Brands, Inc. is Mr. John P. Brase.
What is CAG's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-4.00
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $1.55
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.45
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $1.55
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CAG analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings