Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Defensive · Confectioners
Is Mondelez International, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Mondelez International, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.22 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $58.97 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 2.7/5 stars.
Could Mondelez International, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.22 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MDLZ's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.1247 | 1.2 | -0.15 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5094 | 1.4 | 0.71 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0505 | 3.3 | 0.17 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.578 | 0.6 | 0.95 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.5391 | 1.0 | 0.54 |
How has MDLZ's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.1 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.35 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.53 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.22 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from MDLZ's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Mondelez International, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $2.34 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.89 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $3.02 | 25 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 29.7x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 25.2x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $66.32 (25 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Mondelez International, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.7/5.
What makes up MDLZ's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MDLZ's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7.3% | — |
| 2023 | 13.5% | Rising |
| 2024 | 15.2% | Rising |
| 2025 | 7.7% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Mondelez International, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Mondelez International, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 102.6%. FCF covers the dividend 1.5x. 26 consecutive years of payments.
Mondelez International, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $38.5B | $36.4B | $31.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.5B | $4.6B | $2.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.2B | $3.5B | $3.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 28.4% | 39.1% | 35.9% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our MDLZ analysis
MDLZ earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.61. Revenue estimate: $9.77B. Our current Fair Value: $58.97 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MDLZ analyst consensus: 67% bullish (18 of 27 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 9 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $66.32 (18.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $58.97.
MDLZ paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 102.6%.
MDLZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ beat EPS estimates by 3.3%
Reported EPS: $0.72 vs estimate $0.70. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $58.97 (5.2% above current price).
MDLZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 102.6%.
MDLZ beat EPS estimates by 2.9%
Reported EPS: $0.73 vs estimate $0.71. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $58.97 (5.2% above current price).
MDLZ filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 102.6%.
MDLZ beat EPS estimates by 7.9%
Reported EPS: $0.73 vs estimate $0.68. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $58.97 (5.2% above current price).
MDLZ filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ paid $0.4700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 102.6%.
MDLZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ beat EPS estimates by 12.2%
Reported EPS: $0.74 vs estimate $0.66. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $58.97 (5.2% above current price).
MDLZ filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ paid $0.4700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 102.6%.
MDLZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ missed EPS estimates by 0.5%
Reported EPS: $0.65 vs estimate $0.65. Our Fair Value of $58.97 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
MDLZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDLZ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Mondelez International, Inc.
What is Mondelez International, Inc. stock price today?
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) stock price is $56.06 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Mondelez International, Inc. do?
Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. It provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese, grocery, and powdered beverage products. Its brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate.
What is Mondelez International, Inc. market cap?
Mondelez International, Inc. has a market capitalization of $71.95B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is MDLZ in?
Mondelez International, Inc. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Confectioners industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol MDLZ.
Is MDLZ stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Mondelez International, Inc. trades 4.9% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $58.97
- Current Price: $56.06
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is MDLZ stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 25 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Mondelez International, Inc. is $66.32, implying upside of 18.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $75.00
- Analyst Low Target: $55.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Mondelez International, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Mondelez International, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 2.7%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 3.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.0%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 11.1%
What are Mondelez International, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $38.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 28.4% | Declining |
What is MDLZ's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 29.7x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 16.7x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 25.2x
How volatile is MDLZ stock?
Mondelez International, Inc. has a beta of 0.39, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Mondelez International, Inc. have?
Mondelez International, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.12B
- Total Debt: $21.97B
- Net Cash Position: $-19.84B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Mondelez International, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Mondelez International, Inc. generated $3.59B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $4.51B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Mondelez International, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Mondelez International, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 3.5%
- Payout Ratio: 102.6%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 26
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -17.8%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Mondelez International, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Mondelez International, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.22, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Mondelez International, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Mondelez International, Inc. scores 2.7/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is MDLZ's return on equity (ROE)?
Mondelez International, Inc.'s return on equity is 9.3%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy MDLZ stock?
MDLZ shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MDLZ
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MDLZ a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Mondelez International, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Mondelez International, Inc.?
The current CEO of Mondelez International, Inc. is Mr. Dirk Van de Put.
What is MDLZ's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.89
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $3.36
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $3.02
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.36
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MDLZ analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings