Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Is Walmart Inc. a safe investment right now?
Walmart Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 6.78 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $112.00 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Walmart Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 6.78 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives WMT's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0794 | 1.2 | -0.1 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3681 | 1.4 | 0.52 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1134 | 3.3 | 0.37 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 5.8057 | 0.6 | 3.48 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 2.5052 | 1.0 | 2.51 |
How has WMT's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7.08 | Safe |
| 2024 | 7.15 | Safe |
| 2025 | 7.24 | Safe |
| 2026 | 6.78 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from WMT's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Walmart Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $2.80 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.73 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $2.92 | 41 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 47.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $136.44 (41 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Walmart Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up WMT's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is WMT's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 15.7% | — |
| 2024 | 18.9% | Rising |
| 2025 | 21.3% | Rising |
| 2026 | 22.4% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Walmart Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Walmart Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 34.4%. FCF covers the dividend 2.0x. 53 consecutive years of payments.
Walmart Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $713.2B | $681.0B | $611.3B | Rising |
| Net Income | $21.9B | $19.4B | $11.7B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $14.9B | $12.7B | $12.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 24.9% | 24.9% | 24.1% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our WMT analysis
WMT earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.66. Revenue estimate: $172.24B. Our current Fair Value: $112.00 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
WMT analyst consensus: 90% bullish (38 of 42 analysts)
9 Strong Buy, 29 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $136.44 (5.0% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $112.00.
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT paid $0.2480/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 34.4%.
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT beat EPS estimates by 1.8%
Reported EPS: $0.74 vs estimate $0.73. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.00 (13.8% below current price).
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT paid $0.2350/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 34.4%.
WMT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT beat EPS estimates by 3.1%
Reported EPS: $0.62 vs estimate $0.60. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.00 (13.8% below current price).
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT missed EPS estimates by 8.0%
Reported EPS: $0.68 vs estimate $0.74. Our Fair Value of $112.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT paid $0.2350/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 34.4%.
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT beat EPS estimates by 5.6%
Reported EPS: $0.61 vs estimate $0.58. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.00 (13.8% below current price).
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT paid $0.2350/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 34.4%.
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT paid $0.2350/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 34.4%.
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
WMT beat EPS estimates by 1.1%
Reported EPS: $0.65 vs estimate $0.64. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.00 (13.8% below current price).
WMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Walmart Inc.
What is Walmart Inc. stock price today?
Walmart Inc. (WMT) stock price is $129.98 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Walmart Inc. do?
Walmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, ecommerce websites, and mobile applications worldwide. It operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club U.S.
What is Walmart Inc. market cap?
Walmart Inc. has a market capitalization of $1.04T, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is WMT in?
Walmart Inc. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Discount Stores industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol WMT.
Is WMT stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Walmart Inc. trades 16.1% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $112.00
- Current Price: $129.98
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is WMT stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 41 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Walmart Inc. is $136.44, implying upside of 5.0% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $150.00
- Analyst Low Target: $62.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Walmart Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Walmart Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 5.0%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 10.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 4.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 12.6%
What are Walmart Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $713.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $21.9B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $14.9B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 24.9% | Stable |
What is WMT's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 47.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 39.6x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is WMT stock?
Walmart Inc. has a beta of 0.66, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Walmart Inc. have?
Walmart Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $10.73B
- Total Debt: $68.43B
- Net Cash Position: $-57.70B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Walmart Inc.'s free cash flow?
Walmart Inc. generated $10.55B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $41.56B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Walmart Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Walmart Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.7%
- Payout Ratio: 34.4%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 53
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -19.5%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Walmart Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Walmart Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 6.78, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Walmart Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Walmart Inc. scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is WMT's return on equity (ROE)?
Walmart Inc.'s return on equity is 21.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy WMT stock?
WMT shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol WMT
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is WMT a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Walmart Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Walmart Inc.?
The current CEO of Walmart Inc. is Mr. John R. Furner.
What is WMT's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.73
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $3.28
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $2.92
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.28
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
WMT analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings