Target Corporation (TGT) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Is Target Corporation a safe investment right now?
Target Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 3.06 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $109.75 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Target Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.06 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives TGT's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0206 | 1.2 | -0.02 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.1563 | 1.4 | 0.22 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0876 | 3.3 | 0.29 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.3651 | 0.6 | 0.82 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.7613 | 1.0 | 1.76 |
How has TGT's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3.22 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.27 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.16 | Safe |
| 2026 | 3.06 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from TGT's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Target Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $8.07 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $8.13 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $7.99 | 32 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 16.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 13.6x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $125.03 (32 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Target Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up TGT's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is TGT's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 14.2% | — |
| 2024 | 19.7% | Rising |
| 2025 | 18.5% | Declining |
| 2026 | 16.0% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Target Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Target Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 55.6%. FCF covers the dividend -0.8x. 44 consecutive years of payments.
Target Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $104.8B | $106.6B | $109.1B | Stable |
| Net Income | $3.7B | $4.1B | $2.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.8B | $4.5B | −$1.5B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 27.9% | 28.2% | 24.6% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our TGT analysis
TGT earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.34. Revenue estimate: $24.32B. Our current Fair Value: $109.75 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
TGT analyst consensus: 30% bullish (11 of 37 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 23 Hold, 0 Sell, 3 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $125.03 (4.3% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $109.75.
TGT filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT beat EPS estimates by 13.0%
Reported EPS: $2.44 vs estimate $2.16. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $109.75 (16.0% below current price).
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT paid $1.1400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 55.6%.
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT beat EPS estimates by 4.1%
Reported EPS: $1.78 vs estimate $1.71. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $109.75 (16.0% below current price).
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT paid $1.1400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 55.6%.
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT beat EPS estimates by 0.8%
Reported EPS: $2.05 vs estimate $2.03. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $109.75 (16.0% below current price).
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT paid $1.1400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 55.6%.
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT missed EPS estimates by 21.3%
Reported EPS: $1.30 vs estimate $1.65. Our Fair Value of $109.75 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT paid $1.1200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 55.6%.
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT beat EPS estimates by 7.0%
Reported EPS: $2.41 vs estimate $2.25. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $109.75 (16.0% below current price).
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TGT paid $1.1200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 55.6%.
TGT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Target Corporation
What is Target Corporation stock price today?
Target Corporation (TGT) stock price is $130.60 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Target Corporation do?
Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. It offers apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers, and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes; and beauty products, such as skin and bath care, cosmetics, hair care, oral care, deodorant, and shaving products. It also provides food and beverage products comprising dry and perishable grocery, including snacks, candy, beverages, deli, bakery, meat, produce, and food service; electronics which includes video games and consoles, toys, sporting goods, entertainment, and luggage; bed and bath, home décor, school/office supplies, storage, small appliances, kitchenware, greeting cards, party supplies, furniture, lighting, home improvement, and seasonal merchandise; and household essentials, such as household cleaning, paper products, over-the-counter healthcare, vitamins and supplements, baby gear, and pet supplies.
What is Target Corporation market cap?
Target Corporation has a market capitalization of $59.14B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is TGT in?
Target Corporation operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Discount Stores industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol TGT.
Is TGT stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Target Corporation trades 19.0% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $109.75
- Current Price: $130.60
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is TGT stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 32 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Target Corporation is $125.03, implying downside of 4.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $160.00
- Analyst Low Target: $88.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Target Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Target Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 1.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 5.6%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 2.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 6.6%
What are Target Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $104.8B | Stable |
| Net Income | $3.7B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.8B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 27.9% | Rising |
What is TGT's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 16.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 15.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 13.6x
How volatile is TGT stock?
Target Corporation has a beta of 1.03, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Target Corporation have?
Target Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $5.49B
- Total Debt: $20.29B
- Net Cash Position: $-14.80B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Target Corporation's free cash flow?
Target Corporation generated $2.59B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $6.56B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Target Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Target Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 3.4%
- Payout Ratio: 55.6%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 44
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -18.4%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Target Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Target Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 3.06, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Target Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Target Corporation scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is TGT's return on equity (ROE)?
Target Corporation's return on equity is 24.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy TGT stock?
TGT shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol TGT
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is TGT a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Target Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Target Corporation?
The current CEO of Target Corporation is Mr. Michael J. Fiddelke.
What is TGT's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $8.14
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $8.51
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $7.99
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $8.52
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
TGT analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings