General Mills, Inc. (GIS) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Is General Mills, Inc. a safe investment right now?
General Mills, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.23 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $33.00 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could General Mills, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.23 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives GIS's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0781 | 1.2 | -0.09 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.6627 | 1.4 | 0.93 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1023 | 3.3 | 0.34 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.7871 | 0.6 | 0.47 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.5892 | 1.0 | 0.59 |
How has GIS's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.27 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.35 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.36 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.23 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from GIS's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is General Mills, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $4.52 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (3Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $4.10 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $3.43 | 19 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 8.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 7.3x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $40.58 (19 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does General Mills, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up GIS's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is GIS's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16.2% | — |
| 2023 | 16.0% | Stable |
| 2024 | 15.8% | Stable |
| 2025 | 14.1% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is General Mills, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can General Mills, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 59.4%. FCF covers the dividend 2.2x. 44 consecutive years of payments.
General Mills, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.5B | $19.9B | $19.0B | Stable |
| Net Income | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.7B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 34.5% | 34.9% | 33.7% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our GIS analysis
GIS earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.82. Revenue estimate: $4.62B. Our current Fair Value: $33.00 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
GIS analyst consensus: 19% bullish (4 of 21 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 13 Hold, 3 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $40.58 (15.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $33.00.
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS paid $0.6100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.4%.
GIS missed EPS estimates by 12.1%
Reported EPS: $0.64 vs estimate $0.73. Our Fair Value of $33.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
GIS filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS paid $0.6100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.4%.
GIS beat EPS estimates by 7.1%
Reported EPS: $1.10 vs estimate $1.03. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $33.00 (6.2% below current price).
GIS filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS paid $0.6100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.4%.
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS beat EPS estimates by 5.5%
Reported EPS: $0.86 vs estimate $0.82. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $33.00 (6.2% below current price).
GIS filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS paid $0.6100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.4%.
GIS filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS beat EPS estimates by 4.1%
Reported EPS: $0.74 vs estimate $0.71. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $33.00 (6.2% below current price).
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS paid $0.6000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.4%.
GIS beat EPS estimates by 4.0%
Reported EPS: $1.00 vs estimate $0.96. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $33.00 (6.2% below current price).
GIS filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GIS paid $0.6000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.4%.
Common questions about General Mills, Inc.
What is General Mills, Inc. stock price today?
General Mills, Inc. (GIS) stock price is $35.19 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does General Mills, Inc. do?
General Mills, Inc. manufactures and markets branded consumer foods in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: North America Retail; International; North America Pet; and North America Foodservice.
What is General Mills, Inc. market cap?
General Mills, Inc. has a market capitalization of $18.78B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is GIS in?
General Mills, Inc. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Packaged Foods industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol GIS.
Is GIS stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, General Mills, Inc. trades 6.6% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $33.00
- Current Price: $35.19
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is GIS stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 19 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for General Mills, Inc. is $40.58, implying upside of 15.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $57.00
- Analyst Low Target: $32.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is General Mills, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for General Mills, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): -5.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): -18.6%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): -2.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): -4.1%
What are General Mills, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.5B | Stable |
| Net Income | $2.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.3B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 34.5% | Stable |
What is GIS's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 8.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 10.7x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 7.3x
How volatile is GIS stock?
General Mills, Inc. has a beta of 1.00, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does General Mills, Inc. have?
General Mills, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $399.0M
- Total Debt: N/A
- Net Cash Position: $399.0M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is General Mills, Inc.'s free cash flow?
General Mills, Inc. generated $2.26B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.23B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does General Mills, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, General Mills, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 6.9%
- Payout Ratio: 59.4%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 44
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -9.8%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is General Mills, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
General Mills, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.23, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does General Mills, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
General Mills, Inc. scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is GIS's return on equity (ROE)?
General Mills, Inc.'s return on equity is 23.6%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy GIS stock?
GIS shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol GIS
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is GIS a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies General Mills, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of General Mills, Inc.?
The current CEO of General Mills, Inc. is Mr. Jeffrey L. Harmening.
What is GIS's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $4.09
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $3.29
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $3.43
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.29
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
GIS analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings