Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Farm Products
Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company a safe investment right now?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's Altman Z-Score of 3.19 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $80.03 (Buy Zone). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Archer-Daniels-Midland Company go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.19 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ADM's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.146 | 1.2 | 0.18 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.4117 | 1.4 | 0.58 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0556 | 3.3 | 0.18 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.0849 | 0.6 | 0.65 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.6056 | 1.0 | 1.61 |
How has ADM's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | -0.47 | Distress |
| 2022 | 3.36 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.53 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.19 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from ADM's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $3.02 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.23 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $4.20 | 11 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 31.1x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 26.5x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $65.36 (11 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up ADM's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ADM's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16.8% | — |
| 2023 | 15.2% | Declining |
| 2024 | 9.2% | Declining |
| 2025 | 6.0% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's dividend safe?
Can Archer-Daniels-Midland Company afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 91.5%. FCF covers the dividend 2.6x. 44 consecutive years of payments.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $80.3B | $85.5B | $101.6B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.1B | $1.8B | $4.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.2B | $1.2B | $2.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our ADM analysis
ADM earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.66. Revenue estimate: $21.25B. Our current Fair Value: $80.03 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
ADM analyst consensus: 8% bullish (1 of 12 analysts)
0 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $65.36 (5.9% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $80.03.
ADM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM paid $0.5200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 91.5%.
ADM beat EPS estimates by 9.2%
Reported EPS: $0.87 vs estimate $0.80. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $80.03 (15.3% above current price).
ADM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM paid $0.5100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 91.5%.
ADM beat EPS estimates by 7.9%
Reported EPS: $0.92 vs estimate $0.85. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $80.03 (15.3% above current price).
ADM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM paid $0.5100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 91.5%.
ADM beat EPS estimates by 16.8%
Reported EPS: $0.93 vs estimate $0.80. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $80.03 (15.3% above current price).
ADM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM paid $0.5100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 91.5%.
ADM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM beat EPS estimates by 4.5%
Reported EPS: $0.70 vs estimate $0.67. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $80.03 (15.3% above current price).
ADM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM paid $0.5100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 91.5%.
ADM missed EPS estimates by 0.8%
Reported EPS: $1.14 vs estimate $1.15. Our Fair Value of $80.03 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ADM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
What is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company stock price today?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stock price is $69.43 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company do?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. It engages in the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, as well as the crushing and processing of oilseeds, including soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed; produces and markets vegetable oils and oilseed protein meals used by food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; sale of crude and partially refined vegetable oils; supplies peanuts and peanut-derived ingredients; and manufactures cotton cellulose pulp.
What is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company market cap?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company has a market capitalization of $33.46B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is ADM in?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Farm Products industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol ADM.
Is ADM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company trades 13.2% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $80.03
- Current Price: $69.43
- Valuation Zone: Buy Zone
What is ADM stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 11 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is $65.36, implying downside of 5.9% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $77.00
- Analyst Low Target: $50.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Archer-Daniels-Midland Company:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 6.3%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 22.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 15.8%
What are Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $80.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 6.3% | Declining |
What is ADM's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 31.1x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 14.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 26.5x
How volatile is ADM stock?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company has a beta of 0.64, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company have?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.05B
- Total Debt: $9.76B
- Net Cash Position: $-8.71B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's free cash flow?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company generated $2.15B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $5.45B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.9%
- Payout Ratio: 91.5%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 44
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -18.9%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company at risk of going bankrupt?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's Altman Z-Score is 3.19, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is ADM's return on equity (ROE)?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's return on equity is 4.7%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy ADM stock?
ADM shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol ADM
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is ADM a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Archer-Daniels-Midland Company as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company?
The current CEO of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is Mr. Juan Ricardo Luciano.
What is ADM's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.23
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $4.86
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $4.20
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $4.86
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ADM analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings