Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Farm Products
Is Tyson Foods, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Tyson Foods, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 3.16 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $80.40 (Strong Buy Zone). Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could Tyson Foods, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.16 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives TSN's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0962 | 1.2 | 0.12 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5087 | 1.4 | 0.71 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0332 | 3.3 | 0.11 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.2331 | 0.6 | 0.74 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.4851 | 1.0 | 1.49 |
How has TSN's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.56 | Safe |
| 2023 | 2.99 | Gray |
| 2024 | 3.18 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.16 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from TSN's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Tyson Foods, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $2.01 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.33 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $3.91 | 13 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 115.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $68.54 (13 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Tyson Foods, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up TSN's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is TSN's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16.1% | — |
| 2023 | -1.2% | Declining |
| 2024 | 5.6% | Rising |
| 2025 | 4.5% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Tyson Foods, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Tyson Foods, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 358.9%. FCF covers the dividend 1.2x. 39 consecutive years of payments.
Tyson Foods, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $54.4B | $53.3B | $53.3B | Stable |
| Net Income | $0.5B | $0.8B | $3.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $1.5B | $0.8B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 6.5% | 6.8% | 12.5% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our TSN analysis
TSN earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.79. Revenue estimate: $13.58B. Our current Fair Value: $80.40 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
TSN analyst consensus: 40% bullish (6 of 15 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 8 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $68.54 (6.2% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $80.40.
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN paid $0.5100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 358.9%.
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN beat EPS estimates by 3.1%
Reported EPS: $0.97 vs estimate $0.94. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $80.40 (24.6% above current price).
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN paid $0.5100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 358.9%.
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN beat EPS estimates by 37.8%
Reported EPS: $1.15 vs estimate $0.83. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $80.40 (24.6% above current price).
TSN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 358.9%.
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN beat EPS estimates by 16.2%
Reported EPS: $0.91 vs estimate $0.78. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $80.40 (24.6% above current price).
TSN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 358.9%.
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN beat EPS estimates by 12.2%
Reported EPS: $0.92 vs estimate $0.82. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $80.40 (24.6% above current price).
TSN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 358.9%.
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN beat EPS estimates by 29.9%
Reported EPS: $1.14 vs estimate $0.88. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $80.40 (24.6% above current price).
TSN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TSN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Tyson Foods, Inc.
What is Tyson Foods, Inc. stock price today?
Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) stock price is $64.55 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Tyson Foods, Inc. do?
Tyson Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Beef, Pork, Chicken, and Prepared Foods. It processes live fed cattle and hogs; fabricates dressed beef and pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts, as well as case ready beef and pork, and fully cooked meats; raises and processes chickens into fresh, frozen, and value-added chicken products, including breaded chicken strips, nuggets, patties, and other ready-to-fix or fully cooked chicken parts; and supplies poultry breeding stock.
What is Tyson Foods, Inc. market cap?
Tyson Foods, Inc. has a market capitalization of $22.73B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is TSN in?
Tyson Foods, Inc. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Farm Products industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol TSN.
Is TSN stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Tyson Foods, Inc. trades 19.7% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $80.40
- Current Price: $64.55
- Valuation Zone: Strong Buy Zone
What is TSN stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 13 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Tyson Foods, Inc. is $68.54, implying upside of 6.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $78.00
- Analyst Low Target: $58.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Tyson Foods, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Tyson Foods, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 3.7%
- EPS growth (current year est.): -5.1%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 1.1%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 12.7%
What are Tyson Foods, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $54.4B | Stable |
| Net Income | $0.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 6.5% | Declining |
What is TSN's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 115.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 14.7x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is TSN stock?
Tyson Foods, Inc. has a beta of 0.43, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Tyson Foods, Inc. have?
Tyson Foods, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.28B
- Total Debt: $8.36B
- Net Cash Position: $-7.08B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Tyson Foods, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Tyson Foods, Inc. generated $1.15B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.07B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Tyson Foods, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Tyson Foods, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 3.1%
- Payout Ratio: 358.9%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 39
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -22.2%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: C
Is Tyson Foods, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Tyson Foods, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 3.16, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Tyson Foods, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Tyson Foods, Inc. scores 2.3/5 stars (Weak moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is TSN's return on equity (ROE)?
Tyson Foods, Inc.'s return on equity is 1.3%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy TSN stock?
TSN shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol TSN
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is TSN a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Tyson Foods, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Tyson Foods, Inc.?
The current CEO of Tyson Foods, Inc. is Mr. Donnie D. King.
What is TSN's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.56
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $4.40
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $3.91
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $4.40
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
TSN analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings