Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NCM · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Is Celsius Holdings, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 3.18 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $32.00 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Celsius Holdings, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.18 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CELH's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1431 | 1.2 | 0.17 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0344 | 1.4 | 0.05 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.034 | 3.3 | 0.11 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 3.9239 | 0.6 | 2.35 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4913 | 1.0 | 0.49 |
How has CELH's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 14.92 | Safe |
| 2023 | 13.65 | Safe |
| 2024 | 11.32 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.18 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from CELH's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Celsius Holdings, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.80 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $0.25 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $1.62 | 20 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 133.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $65.40 (20 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Celsius Holdings, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up CELH's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CELH's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -120.7% | — |
| 2023 | 60.0% | Rising |
| 2024 | 48.8% | Declining |
| 2025 | 9.4% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.5B | $1.4B | $0.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.1B | $0.1B | −$0.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.3B | $0.2B | $0.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 50.4% | 50.2% | 41.4% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our CELH analysis
CELH earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.30. Revenue estimate: $760.9M. Our current Fair Value: $32.00 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
CELH analyst consensus: 86% bullish (19 of 22 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $65.40 (96.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $32.00.
CELH filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH beat EPS estimates by 36.9%
Reported EPS: $0.26 vs estimate $0.19. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $32.00 (3.8% below current price).
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH beat EPS estimates by 52.0%
Reported EPS: $0.42 vs estimate $0.28. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $32.00 (3.8% below current price).
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH beat EPS estimates by 93.1%
Reported EPS: $0.47 vs estimate $0.24. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $32.00 (3.8% below current price).
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH missed EPS estimates by 5.9%
Reported EPS: $0.18 vs estimate $0.19. Our Fair Value of $32.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH beat EPS estimates by 44.2%
Reported EPS: $0.14 vs estimate $0.10. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $32.00 (3.8% below current price).
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CELH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Celsius Holdings, Inc.
What is Celsius Holdings, Inc. stock price today?
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) stock price is $33.26 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Celsius Holdings, Inc. do?
Celsius Holdings, Inc. develops, processes, manufactures, markets, sells, and distributes functional energy drinks in the United States, North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It offers CELSIUS ESSENTIALS, a functional energy drink formulated with aminos; and CELSIUS Hydration, a line of zero-sugar hydration powders featuring electrolytes in various fruit-forward flavors, as well as ready-to-drink energy beverages, on-the-go powder and hydration sticks, and nutrition and wellness products under CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and Rockstar brand names.
What is Celsius Holdings, Inc. market cap?
Celsius Holdings, Inc. has a market capitalization of $8.55B, classifying it as a mid-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is CELH in?
Celsius Holdings, Inc. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol CELH.
Is CELH stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Celsius Holdings, Inc. trades 3.9% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $32.00
- Current Price: $33.26
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is CELH stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 20 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Celsius Holdings, Inc. is $65.40, implying upside of 96.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $85.00
- Analyst Low Target: $40.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Celsius Holdings, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Celsius Holdings, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 34.3%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 20.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 9.8%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 25.9%
What are Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 50.4% | Rising |
What is CELH's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 133.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 16.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is CELH stock?
Celsius Holdings, Inc. has a beta of 1.12, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Celsius Holdings, Inc. have?
Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $398.9M
- Total Debt: $695.1M
- Net Cash Position: $-296.3M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Celsius Holdings, Inc. generated $78.6M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $359.4M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Celsius Holdings, Inc. pay a dividend?
Celsius Holdings, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Celsius Holdings, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 3.18, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Celsius Holdings, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Celsius Holdings, Inc. scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is CELH's return on equity (ROE)?
Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s return on equity is 5.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CELH stock?
CELH shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CELH
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CELH a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Celsius Holdings, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
What is CELH's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.25
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $2.04
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.62
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $2.04
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CELH analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings