Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation a safe investment right now?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 3.3 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $236.81 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Marathon Petroleum Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.3 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MPC's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0608 | 1.2 | 0.07 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.4735 | 1.4 | 0.66 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1004 | 3.3 | 0.33 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.0933 | 0.6 | 0.66 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.5806 | 1.0 | 1.58 |
How has MPC's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.1 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.76 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.5 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.3 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from MPC's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Marathon Petroleum Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $16.56 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $13.22 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $21.58 | 17 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 16.8x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 14.3x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $245.24 (17 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Marathon Petroleum Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up MPC's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MPC's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 39.8% | — |
| 2023 | 29.5% | Declining |
| 2024 | 16.1% | Declining |
| 2025 | 16.8% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Marathon Petroleum Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 28.2%. FCF covers the dividend 10.9x. 16 consecutive years of payments.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $132.7B | $138.9B | $177.5B | Declining |
| Net Income | $4.0B | $3.4B | $14.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.8B | $6.1B | $13.9B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 7.5% | 6.7% | 12.7% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our MPC analysis
MPC earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.97. Revenue estimate: $30.94B. Our current Fair Value: $236.81 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MPC analyst consensus: 56% bullish (10 of 18 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 8 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $245.24 (10.4% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $236.81.
MPC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC paid $1.0000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 28.2%.
MPC beat EPS estimates by 50.1%
Reported EPS: $4.07 vs estimate $2.71. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $236.81 (6.6% above current price).
MPC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC paid $1.0000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 28.2%.
MPC missed EPS estimates by 4.9%
Reported EPS: $3.01 vs estimate $3.16. Our Fair Value of $236.81 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
MPC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC paid $0.9100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 28.2%.
MPC beat EPS estimates by 23.0%
Reported EPS: $3.96 vs estimate $3.22. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $236.81 (6.6% above current price).
MPC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC paid $0.9100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 28.2%.
MPC beat EPS estimates by 55.8%
Reported EPS: $-0.24 vs estimate $-0.54. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $236.81 (6.6% above current price).
MPC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC paid $0.9100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 28.2%.
MPC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC beat EPS estimates by 3730.8%
Reported EPS: $0.77 vs estimate $0.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $236.81 (6.6% above current price).
MPC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Marathon Petroleum Corporation
What is Marathon Petroleum Corporation stock price today?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) stock price is $222.07 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Marathon Petroleum Corporation do?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services.
What is Marathon Petroleum Corporation market cap?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation has a market capitalization of $65.45B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector.
What sector and industry is MPC in?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation operates in the Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol MPC.
Is MPC stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Marathon Petroleum Corporation trades 6.2% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $236.81
- Current Price: $222.07
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is MPC stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 17 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Marathon Petroleum Corporation is $245.24, implying upside of 10.4% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $331.00
- Analyst Low Target: $174.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Marathon Petroleum Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 2.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 101.7%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): -4.5%
- EPS growth (next year est.): -11.6%
What are Marathon Petroleum Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $132.7B | Declining |
| Net Income | $4.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.8B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 7.5% | Declining |
What is MPC's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 16.8x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 11.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 14.3x
How volatile is MPC stock?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation has a beta of 0.58, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Marathon Petroleum Corporation have?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $3.67B
- Total Debt: $34.36B
- Net Cash Position: $-30.69B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Marathon Petroleum Corporation's free cash flow?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation generated $2.57B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $8.25B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Marathon Petroleum Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Marathon Petroleum Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.7%
- Payout Ratio: 28.2%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 16
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -15.5%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 3.30, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Marathon Petroleum Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is MPC's return on equity (ROE)?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's return on equity is 24.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy MPC stock?
MPC shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MPC
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MPC a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Marathon Petroleum Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Marathon Petroleum Corporation?
The current CEO of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is Ms. Maryann T. Mannen.
What is MPC's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $13.21
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $19.63
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $21.58
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $19.07
Other Energy companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MPC analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings