Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Is Coterra Energy Inc. a safe investment right now?
Coterra Energy Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.66 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $31.62 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Coterra Energy Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.66 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CTRA's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.012 | 1.2 | 0.01 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2844 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1024 | 3.3 | 0.34 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.6593 | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3154 | 1.0 | 0.32 |
How has CTRA's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.69 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.07 | Safe |
| 2024 | 2.74 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.66 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from CTRA's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Coterra Energy Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $2.53 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.25 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $2.95 | 21 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 14.7x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 12.5x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $37.19 (21 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Coterra Energy Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up CTRA's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CTRA's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 35.4% | — |
| 2023 | 14.5% | Declining |
| 2024 | 8.8% | Declining |
| 2025 | 13.3% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Coterra Energy Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Coterra Energy Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 39.3%. FCF covers the dividend 1.9x. 37 consecutive years of payments.
Coterra Energy Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.6B | $5.5B | $9.1B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.7B | $1.1B | $4.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B | $1.0B | $3.7B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 41.5% | 36.5% | 66.3% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our CTRA analysis
CTRA earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.94. Revenue estimate: $2.15B. Our current Fair Value: $31.62 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
CTRA analyst consensus: 67% bullish (14 of 21 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $37.19 (12.9% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $31.62.
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA paid $0.2200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 39.3%.
CTRA filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA missed EPS estimates by 16.9%
Reported EPS: $0.39 vs estimate $0.47. Our Fair Value of $31.62 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA paid $0.2200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 39.3%.
CTRA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA missed EPS estimates by 4.8%
Reported EPS: $0.41 vs estimate $0.43. Our Fair Value of $31.62 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA paid $0.2200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 39.3%.
CTRA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA beat EPS estimates by 7.0%
Reported EPS: $0.48 vs estimate $0.45. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $31.62 (4.0% below current price).
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA paid $0.2200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 39.3%.
CTRA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA beat EPS estimates by 0.6%
Reported EPS: $0.80 vs estimate $0.80. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $31.62 (4.0% below current price).
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA paid $0.2200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 39.3%.
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CTRA beat EPS estimates by 14.3%
Reported EPS: $0.49 vs estimate $0.43. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $31.62 (4.0% below current price).
CTRA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Coterra Energy Inc.
What is Coterra Energy Inc. stock price today?
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) stock price is $32.93 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Coterra Energy Inc. do?
Coterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company's properties include the Permian Basin, which covers approximately 345,000 net acres in the Delaware Basin in west Texas and southeast New Mexico, and an additional approximate of 49,000 net acres in the Delaware Basin in Lea County, New Mexico; Marcellus Shale properties, which covers approximately 186,000 net acres located in Susquehanna County, northeast Pennsylvania; and Anadarko Basin, which covers approximately 208,000 net acres located in the mid-continent region in Oklahoma. It also operates natural gas and saltwater gathering, and disposal systems in Texas.
What is Coterra Energy Inc. market cap?
Coterra Energy Inc. has a market capitalization of $25.01B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector.
What sector and industry is CTRA in?
Coterra Energy Inc. operates in the Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas E&P industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol CTRA.
Is CTRA stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Coterra Energy Inc. trades 4.1% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $31.62
- Current Price: $32.93
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is CTRA stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 21 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Coterra Energy Inc. is $37.19, implying upside of 12.9% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $46.00
- Analyst Low Target: $28.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Coterra Energy Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Coterra Energy Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 10.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 41.6%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 1.9%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 0.1%
What are Coterra Energy Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.6B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 41.5% | Declining |
What is CTRA's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 14.7x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 11.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 12.5x
How volatile is CTRA stock?
Coterra Energy Inc. has a beta of 0.27, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Coterra Energy Inc. have?
Coterra Energy Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $114.0M
- Total Debt: $4.01B
- Net Cash Position: $-3.89B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Coterra Energy Inc.'s free cash flow?
Coterra Energy Inc. generated $1.22B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $4.02B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Coterra Energy Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Coterra Energy Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.8%
- Payout Ratio: 39.3%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 37
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -27.8%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Coterra Energy Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Coterra Energy Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.66, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Coterra Energy Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Coterra Energy Inc. scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is CTRA's return on equity (ROE)?
Coterra Energy Inc.'s return on equity is 12.3%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CTRA stock?
CTRA shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CTRA
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CTRA a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Coterra Energy Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Coterra Energy Inc.?
The current CEO of Coterra Energy Inc. is Mr. Thomas E. Jorden.
What is CTRA's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.24
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $2.93
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $2.95
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $2.95
Other Energy companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CTRA analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings