Energy Transfer LP (ET) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream
Is Energy Transfer LP a safe investment right now?
Energy Transfer LP's Altman Z-Score of 1.28 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $17.96 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.3/5 stars.
Could Energy Transfer LP go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.28 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ET's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0232 | 1.2 | 0.03 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0675 | 3.3 | 0.22 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.7129 | 0.6 | 0.43 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.6054 | 1.0 | 0.61 |
How has ET's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.74 | Distress |
| 2023 | 1.51 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.44 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.28 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from ET's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Energy Transfer LP actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.34 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.21 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $1.53 | 21 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 15.8x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 13.4x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $22.21 (21 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Energy Transfer LP have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.3/5.
What makes up ET's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ET's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10.3% | — |
| 2023 | 9.2% | Declining |
| 2024 | 10.8% | Rising |
| 2025 | 9.3% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Energy Transfer LP's dividend safe?
Can Energy Transfer LP afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 108.7%. FCF covers the dividend 1.9x. 21 consecutive years of payments.
Energy Transfer LP's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $85.5B | $82.7B | $89.9B | Stable |
| Net Income | $4.4B | $4.8B | $4.8B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.8B | $7.3B | $5.7B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 19.1% | 18.8% | 15.0% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our ET analysis
ET earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.37. Revenue estimate: $27.52B. Our current Fair Value: $17.96 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
ET analyst consensus: 86% bullish (18 of 21 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $22.21 (16.5% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $17.96.
ET filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET missed EPS estimates by 30.4%
Reported EPS: $0.25 vs estimate $0.36. Our Fair Value of $17.96 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET paid $0.3350/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 108.7%.
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET paid $0.3330/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 108.7%.
ET filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET missed EPS estimates by 15.4%
Reported EPS: $0.28 vs estimate $0.33. Our Fair Value of $17.96 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET paid $0.3300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 108.7%.
ET filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET missed EPS estimates by 1.8%
Reported EPS: $0.32 vs estimate $0.33. Our Fair Value of $17.96 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET paid $0.3280/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 108.7%.
ET filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET beat EPS estimates by 0.4%
Reported EPS: $0.36 vs estimate $0.36. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $17.96 (5.8% below current price).
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET missed EPS estimates by 22.5%
Reported EPS: $0.29 vs estimate $0.37. Our Fair Value of $17.96 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ET paid $0.3250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 108.7%.
ET filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Energy Transfer LP
What is Energy Transfer LP stock price today?
Energy Transfer LP (ET) stock price is $19.07 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Energy Transfer LP do?
Energy Transfer LP, together with its subsidiaries, provides energy-related services in the United States. It operates through Intrastate Transportation and Storage; Interstate Transportation and Storage; Midstream; Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) and Refined Products Transportation and Services; Crude Oil Transportation and Services; Investment in Sunoco LP; Investment in USA Compression Partners, LP (USAC); and All Other segments. It owns and operates natural gas transportation pipelines and storage facilities; and approximately 12,200 miles of intrastate natural gas transportation pipelines and 20,090 miles of interstate natural gas pipelines.
What is Energy Transfer LP market cap?
Energy Transfer LP has a market capitalization of $65.61B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector.
What sector and industry is ET in?
Energy Transfer LP operates in the Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas Midstream industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol ET.
Is ET stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Energy Transfer LP trades 6.2% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $17.96
- Current Price: $19.07
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is ET stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 21 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Energy Transfer LP is $22.21, implying upside of 16.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $25.00
- Analyst Low Target: $19.50
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Energy Transfer LP revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Energy Transfer LP:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 26.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 26.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): -1.8%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 10.1%
What are Energy Transfer LP's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $85.5B | Stable |
| Net Income | $4.4B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.8B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 19.1% | Rising |
What is ET's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 15.8x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 12.1x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 13.4x
How volatile is ET stock?
Energy Transfer LP has a beta of 0.62, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Energy Transfer LP have?
Energy Transfer LP's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.27B
- Total Debt: $70.09B
- Net Cash Position: $-68.82B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Energy Transfer LP's free cash flow?
Energy Transfer LP generated $2.21B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $10.15B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Energy Transfer LP pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Energy Transfer LP pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 7.0%
- Payout Ratio: 108.7%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 21
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -11.3%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Energy Transfer LP at risk of going bankrupt?
Energy Transfer LP's Altman Z-Score is 1.28, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Energy Transfer LP have a durable competitive advantage?
Energy Transfer LP scores 3.3/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is ET's return on equity (ROE)?
Energy Transfer LP's return on equity is 11.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy ET stock?
ET shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol ET
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is ET a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Energy Transfer LP as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Energy Transfer LP?
The current CEO of Energy Transfer LP is Mr. Marshall S. McCrea III.
What is ET's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.21
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $1.58
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.53
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $1.69
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ET analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings