Phillips 66 (PSX) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Is Phillips 66 a safe investment right now?
Phillips 66's Altman Z-Score of 3.67 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $136.33 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Phillips 66 go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.67 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives PSX's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0535 | 1.2 | 0.06 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.4511 | 1.4 | 0.63 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0883 | 3.3 | 0.29 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.4829 | 0.6 | 0.89 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.7966 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
How has PSX's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.36 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.92 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.65 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.67 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from PSX's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Phillips 66 actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $10.82 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (4Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $4.99 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $13.66 | 19 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 14.9x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 12.6x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $179.68 (19 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Phillips 66 have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up PSX's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is PSX's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 32.7% | — |
| 2023 | 20.8% | Declining |
| 2024 | 7.6% | Declining |
| 2025 | 13.3% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Phillips 66's dividend safe?
Can Phillips 66 afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 44.0%. FCF covers the dividend 5.0x. 15 consecutive years of payments.
Phillips 66's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $132.4B | $143.2B | $170.0B | Declining |
| Net Income | $4.4B | $2.1B | $11.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.7B | $2.3B | $8.9B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 9.8% | 7.6% | 10.8% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our PSX analysis
PSX earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $-0.15. Revenue estimate: $34.89B. Our current Fair Value: $136.33 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
PSX analyst consensus: 45% bullish (9 of 20 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 10 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $179.68 (11.8% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $136.33.
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX paid $1.2700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 44.0%.
PSX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX beat EPS estimates by 14.7%
Reported EPS: $2.47 vs estimate $2.15. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $136.33 (15.1% below current price).
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX paid $1.2000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 44.0%.
PSX beat EPS estimates by 16.8%
Reported EPS: $2.52 vs estimate $2.16. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $136.33 (15.1% below current price).
PSX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX paid $1.2000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 44.0%.
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX beat EPS estimates by 38.9%
Reported EPS: $2.38 vs estimate $1.71. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $136.33 (15.1% below current price).
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX paid $1.2000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 44.0%.
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX missed EPS estimates by 25.6%
Reported EPS: $-0.90 vs estimate $-0.72. Our Fair Value of $136.33 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
PSX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX paid $1.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 44.0%.
PSX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX beat EPS estimates by 32.2%
Reported EPS: $-0.15 vs estimate $-0.22. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $136.33 (15.1% below current price).
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Phillips 66
What is Phillips 66 stock price today?
Phillips 66 (PSX) stock price is $160.65 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Phillips 66 do?
Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties (M&S), and Renewable Fuels. The Midstream segment provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling, and storage services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) gathering, processing, transportation, fractionation, storage and marketing services.
What is Phillips 66 market cap?
Phillips 66 has a market capitalization of $64.42B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector.
What sector and industry is PSX in?
Phillips 66 operates in the Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol PSX.
Is PSX stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Phillips 66 trades 17.8% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $136.33
- Current Price: $160.65
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is PSX stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 19 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Phillips 66 is $179.68, implying upside of 11.8% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $213.00
- Analyst Low Target: $138.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Phillips 66 revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Phillips 66:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 15.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 112.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): -5.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 10.1%
What are Phillips 66's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $132.4B | Declining |
| Net Income | $4.4B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.7B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 9.8% | Declining |
What is PSX's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 14.9x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 10.7x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 12.6x
How volatile is PSX stock?
Phillips 66 has a beta of 0.76, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Phillips 66 have?
Phillips 66's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.12B
- Total Debt: $21.59B
- Net Cash Position: $-20.47B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Phillips 66's free cash flow?
Phillips 66 generated $1.26B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $4.96B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Phillips 66 pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Phillips 66 pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 3.0%
- Payout Ratio: 44.0%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 15
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -18.9%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Phillips 66 at risk of going bankrupt?
Phillips 66's Altman Z-Score is 3.67, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Phillips 66 have a durable competitive advantage?
Phillips 66 scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is PSX's return on equity (ROE)?
Phillips 66's return on equity is 15.4%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy PSX stock?
PSX shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol PSX
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is PSX a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Phillips 66 as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Phillips 66?
The current CEO of Phillips 66 is Dr. Mark E. Lashier.
What is PSX's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $10.80
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $15.04
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $13.66
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $15.04
Other Energy companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
PSX analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings