Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Is Devon Energy Corporation a safe investment right now?
Devon Energy Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 2.09 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $44.83 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Devon Energy Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.09 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives DVN's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0025 | 1.2 | -0.0 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3228 | 1.4 | 0.45 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.8221 | 0.6 | 1.09 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.5439 | 1.0 | 0.54 |
How has DVN's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.65 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.09 | Safe |
| 2024 | 2.46 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.09 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from DVN's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Devon Energy Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $4.67 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $4.17 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $5.43 | 25 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 11.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 9.6x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $58.12 (25 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Devon Energy Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up DVN's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is DVN's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 46.3% | — |
| 2023 | 27.4% | Declining |
| 2024 | 17.6% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Devon Energy Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Devon Energy Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 23.0%. FCF covers the dividend 1.0x. 34 consecutive years of payments.
Devon Energy Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.2B | $15.9B | $19.2B | Declining |
| Net Income | $2.6B | $2.9B | $6.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.8B | −$0.9B | $3.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 25.6% | 29.5% | 43.7% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our DVN analysis
DVN earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.04. Revenue estimate: $3.67B. Our current Fair Value: $44.83 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
DVN analyst consensus: 85% bullish (22 of 26 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $58.12 (23.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $44.83.
DVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN paid $0.2400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.0%.
DVN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN missed EPS estimates by 0.8%
Reported EPS: $0.82 vs estimate $0.83. Our Fair Value of $44.83 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
DVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN paid $0.2400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.0%.
DVN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN beat EPS estimates by 10.6%
Reported EPS: $1.04 vs estimate $0.94. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $44.83 (4.9% below current price).
DVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN paid $0.2400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.0%.
DVN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN missed EPS estimates by 2.8%
Reported EPS: $0.84 vs estimate $0.86. Our Fair Value of $44.83 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
DVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN paid $0.2400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.0%.
DVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN missed EPS estimates by 1.5%
Reported EPS: $1.21 vs estimate $1.23. Our Fair Value of $44.83 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
DVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN paid $0.2400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.0%.
DVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN beat EPS estimates by 15.7%
Reported EPS: $1.16 vs estimate $1.00. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $44.83 (4.9% below current price).
DVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DVN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Devon Energy Corporation
What is Devon Energy Corporation stock price today?
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) stock price is $47.12 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Devon Energy Corporation do?
Devon Energy Corporation, an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. It operates in Delaware Basin located in southeast New Mexico and west Texas, Eagle Ford located in North America, Anadarko Basin located in western Oklahoma, Williston Basin located in North Dakota, and Powder River Basin located in Wyoming. Devon Energy Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
What is Devon Energy Corporation market cap?
Devon Energy Corporation has a market capitalization of $29.28B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector.
What sector and industry is DVN in?
Devon Energy Corporation operates in the Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas E&P industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol DVN.
Is DVN stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Devon Energy Corporation trades 5.1% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $44.83
- Current Price: $47.12
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is DVN stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 25 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Devon Energy Corporation is $58.12, implying upside of 23.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $69.00
- Analyst Low Target: $41.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Devon Energy Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Devon Energy Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 23.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 38.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 11.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): -4.3%
What are Devon Energy Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.2B | Declining |
| Net Income | $2.6B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.8B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 25.6% | Declining |
What is DVN's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 11.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 8.8x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 9.6x
How volatile is DVN stock?
Devon Energy Corporation has a beta of 0.53, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Devon Energy Corporation have?
Devon Energy Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.38B
- Total Debt: $8.69B
- Net Cash Position: $-7.30B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Devon Energy Corporation's free cash flow?
Devon Energy Corporation generated $2.12B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $6.71B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Devon Energy Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Devon Energy Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.1%
- Payout Ratio: 23.0%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 34
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -34.4%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Devon Energy Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Devon Energy Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 2.09, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Devon Energy Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Devon Energy Corporation scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is DVN's return on equity (ROE)?
Devon Energy Corporation's return on equity is 17.7%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy DVN stock?
DVN shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol DVN
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is DVN a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Devon Energy Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Devon Energy Corporation?
The current CEO of Devon Energy Corporation is Mr. Clay M. Gaspar.
What is DVN's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $4.17
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $5.35
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $5.43
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $5.31
Other Energy companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
DVN analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings