Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation a safe investment right now?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 1.49 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $97.65 (Strong Buy Zone). Moat rating: 2.7/5 stars.
Could Occidental Petroleum Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.49 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives OXY's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0071 | 1.2 | -0.01 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.26 | 1.4 | 0.36 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0491 | 3.3 | 0.16 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.1889 | 0.6 | 0.71 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.2565 | 1.0 | 0.26 |
How has OXY's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.33 | Gray |
| 2023 | 1.68 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.44 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.49 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from OXY's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Occidental Petroleum Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $2.72 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.61 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $4.39 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 42.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 35.9x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $63.12 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Occidental Petroleum Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.7/5.
What makes up OXY's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is OXY's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 38.4% | — |
| 2023 | 12.7% | Declining |
| 2024 | 8.7% | Declining |
| 2025 | 8.4% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Occidental Petroleum Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 71.1%. FCF covers the dividend 10.4x. 45 consecutive years of payments.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.6B | $22.0B | $36.6B | Declining |
| Net Income | $2.3B | $3.1B | $13.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.1B | $5.2B | $12.3B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 34.9% | 37.6% | 48.2% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our OXY analysis
OXY earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.61. Revenue estimate: $5.80B. Our current Fair Value: $97.65 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
OXY analyst consensus: 28% bullish (7 of 25 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 15 Hold, 2 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $63.12 (10.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $97.65.
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY paid $0.2600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 71.1%.
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY beat EPS estimates by 76.9%
Reported EPS: $0.31 vs estimate $0.18. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $97.65 (71.2% above current price).
OXY filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY paid $0.2400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 71.1%.
OXY beat EPS estimates by 22.7%
Reported EPS: $0.64 vs estimate $0.52. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $97.65 (71.2% above current price).
OXY filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY paid $0.2400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 71.1%.
OXY beat EPS estimates by 24.8%
Reported EPS: $0.39 vs estimate $0.31. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $97.65 (71.2% above current price).
OXY filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY paid $0.2400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 71.1%.
OXY beat EPS estimates by 14.0%
Reported EPS: $0.87 vs estimate $0.76. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $97.65 (71.2% above current price).
OXY filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY paid $0.2400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 71.1%.
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY beat EPS estimates by 19.4%
Reported EPS: $0.80 vs estimate $0.67. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $97.65 (71.2% above current price).
OXY filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
OXY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Occidental Petroleum Corporation
What is Occidental Petroleum Corporation stock price today?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) stock price is $57.05 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Occidental Petroleum Corporation do?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas.
What is Occidental Petroleum Corporation market cap?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation has a market capitalization of $56.58B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector.
What sector and industry is OXY in?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation operates in the Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas E&P industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol OXY.
Is OXY stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Occidental Petroleum Corporation trades 41.6% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $97.65
- Current Price: $57.05
- Valuation Zone: Strong Buy Zone
What is OXY stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Occidental Petroleum Corporation is $63.12, implying upside of 10.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $74.00
- Analyst Low Target: $46.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Occidental Petroleum Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 22.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 98.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): -7.5%
- EPS growth (next year est.): -19.2%
What are Occidental Petroleum Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.6B | Declining |
| Net Income | $2.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.1B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 34.9% | Declining |
What is OXY's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 42.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 16.0x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 35.9x
How volatile is OXY stock?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation has a beta of 0.23, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Occidental Petroleum Corporation have?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.97B
- Total Debt: $23.35B
- Net Cash Position: $-21.38B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Occidental Petroleum Corporation's free cash flow?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation generated $2.05B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $10.53B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Occidental Petroleum Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Occidental Petroleum Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.7%
- Payout Ratio: 71.1%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 45
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: 45.4%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 1.49, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Occidental Petroleum Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation scores 2.7/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is OXY's return on equity (ROE)?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation's return on equity is 5.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy OXY stock?
OXY shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol OXY
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is OXY a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Occidental Petroleum Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Occidental Petroleum Corporation?
The current CEO of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is Ms. Vicki A. Hollub.
What is OXY's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.35
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $3.57
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $4.39
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.55
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
OXY analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings