ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Is ConocoPhillips a safe investment right now?
ConocoPhillips's Altman Z-Score of 3.25 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $113.00 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could ConocoPhillips go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.25 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives COP's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0292 | 1.2 | 0.04 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5647 | 1.4 | 0.79 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1139 | 3.3 | 0.38 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.6084 | 0.6 | 1.57 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4834 | 1.0 | 0.48 |
How has COP's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.7 | Safe |
| 2023 | 4.03 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.17 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.25 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from COP's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is ConocoPhillips actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $6.89 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $6.35 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $7.70 | 26 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 19.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 16.4x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $137.00 (26 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does ConocoPhillips have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up COP's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is COP's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 46.2% | — |
| 2023 | 25.9% | Declining |
| 2024 | 16.8% | Declining |
| 2025 | 15.9% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is ConocoPhillips's dividend safe?
Can ConocoPhillips afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 50.1%. FCF covers the dividend 3.2x. 45 consecutive years of payments.
ConocoPhillips's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $58.9B | $54.7B | $78.5B | Declining |
| Net Income | $8.0B | $9.2B | $18.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $7.2B | $8.0B | $18.2B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 25.1% | 29.9% | 38.2% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our COP analysis
COP earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.67. Revenue estimate: $16.13B. Our current Fair Value: $113.00 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
COP analyst consensus: 68% bullish (19 of 28 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 8 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $137.00 (11.7% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $113.00.
COP paid $0.8400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 50.1%.
COP filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
COP missed EPS estimates by 6.5%
Reported EPS: $1.02 vs estimate $1.09. Our Fair Value of $113.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
COP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COP paid $0.8400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 50.1%.
COP beat EPS estimates by 14.1%
Reported EPS: $1.61 vs estimate $1.41. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $113.00 (7.8% below current price).
COP filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
COP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COP paid $0.7800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 50.1%.
COP beat EPS estimates by 4.7%
Reported EPS: $1.42 vs estimate $1.36. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $113.00 (7.8% below current price).
COP filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
COP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COP paid $0.7800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 50.1%.
COP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COP beat EPS estimates by 2.0%
Reported EPS: $2.09 vs estimate $2.05. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $113.00 (7.8% below current price).
COP filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
COP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COP filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
COP paid $0.7800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 50.1%.
COP beat EPS estimates by 7.9%
Reported EPS: $1.98 vs estimate $1.83. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $113.00 (7.8% below current price).
COP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about ConocoPhillips
What is ConocoPhillips stock price today?
ConocoPhillips (COP) stock price is $122.60 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does ConocoPhillips do?
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; global LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of global exploration prospects.
What is ConocoPhillips market cap?
ConocoPhillips has a market capitalization of $149.86B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector.
What sector and industry is COP in?
ConocoPhillips operates in the Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas E&P industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol COP.
Is COP stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, ConocoPhillips trades 8.5% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $113.00
- Current Price: $122.60
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is COP stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 26 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for ConocoPhillips is $137.00, implying upside of 11.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $183.00
- Analyst Low Target: $100.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is ConocoPhillips revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for ConocoPhillips:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 4.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 25.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 0.8%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 6.9%
What are ConocoPhillips's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $58.9B | Declining |
| Net Income | $8.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $7.2B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 25.1% | Declining |
What is COP's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 19.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 15.1x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 16.4x
How volatile is COP stock?
ConocoPhillips has a beta of 0.19, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does ConocoPhillips have?
ConocoPhillips's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $6.98B
- Total Debt: $24.39B
- Net Cash Position: $-17.41B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is ConocoPhillips's free cash flow?
ConocoPhillips generated $7.49B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $19.80B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does ConocoPhillips pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, ConocoPhillips pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.6%
- Payout Ratio: 50.1%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 45
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -15.5%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is ConocoPhillips at risk of going bankrupt?
ConocoPhillips's Altman Z-Score is 3.25, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does ConocoPhillips have a durable competitive advantage?
ConocoPhillips scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is COP's return on equity (ROE)?
ConocoPhillips's return on equity is 12.4%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy COP stock?
COP shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol COP
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is COP a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies ConocoPhillips as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of ConocoPhillips?
The current CEO of ConocoPhillips is Mr. Ryan M. Lance.
What is COP's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $6.35
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $8.13
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $7.70
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $8.23
Other Energy companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
COP analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings