Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Is Exxon Mobil Corporation a safe investment right now?
Exxon Mobil Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 4.61 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $153.14 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Exxon Mobil Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.61 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives XOM's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0246 | 1.2 | 0.03 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 1.0746 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0933 | 3.3 | 0.31 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 3.4077 | 0.6 | 2.04 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.7214 | 1.0 | 0.72 |
How has XOM's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.76 | Safe |
| 2023 | 5.42 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.66 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.61 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from XOM's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Exxon Mobil Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $8.06 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $6.70 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $10.11 | 23 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 22.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 19.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $163.91 (23 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Exxon Mobil Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up XOM's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is XOM's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 33.7% | — |
| 2023 | 22.1% | Declining |
| 2024 | 16.5% | Declining |
| 2025 | 14.1% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Exxon Mobil Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Exxon Mobil Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 59.7%. FCF covers the dividend 3.9x. 65 consecutive years of payments.
Exxon Mobil Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $323.9B | $339.2B | $398.7B | Declining |
| Net Income | $28.8B | $33.7B | $55.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $23.6B | $30.7B | $58.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 22.0% | 22.6% | 25.9% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our XOM analysis
XOM earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.00. Revenue estimate: $85.26B. Our current Fair Value: $153.14 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
XOM analyst consensus: 48% bullish (12 of 25 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $163.91 (9.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $153.14.
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM paid $1.0300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.7%.
XOM beat EPS estimates by 1.1%
Reported EPS: $1.71 vs estimate $1.69. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $153.14 (2.4% above current price).
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM paid $1.0300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.7%.
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM beat EPS estimates by 3.0%
Reported EPS: $1.88 vs estimate $1.82. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $153.14 (2.4% above current price).
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM paid $0.9900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.7%.
XOM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM beat EPS estimates by 4.9%
Reported EPS: $1.64 vs estimate $1.56. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $153.14 (2.4% above current price).
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM paid $0.9900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.7%.
XOM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM beat EPS estimates by 1.2%
Reported EPS: $1.76 vs estimate $1.74. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $153.14 (2.4% above current price).
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM paid $0.9900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.7%.
XOM beat EPS estimates by 7.9%
Reported EPS: $1.67 vs estimate $1.55. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $153.14 (2.4% above current price).
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Exxon Mobil Corporation
What is Exxon Mobil Corporation stock price today?
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) stock price is $149.50 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Exxon Mobil Corporation do?
Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas.
What is Exxon Mobil Corporation market cap?
Exxon Mobil Corporation has a market capitalization of $621.41B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Energy sector.
What sector and industry is XOM in?
Exxon Mobil Corporation operates in the Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas Integrated industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol XOM.
Is XOM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Exxon Mobil Corporation trades 2.4% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $153.14
- Current Price: $149.50
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is XOM stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 23 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Exxon Mobil Corporation is $163.91, implying upside of 9.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $195.00
- Analyst Low Target: $123.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Exxon Mobil Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Exxon Mobil Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 17.2%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 44.6%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): -6.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): -0.4%
What are Exxon Mobil Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $323.9B | Declining |
| Net Income | $28.8B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $23.6B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 22.0% | Declining |
What is XOM's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 22.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 14.9x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 19.0x
How volatile is XOM stock?
Exxon Mobil Corporation has a beta of 0.29, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Exxon Mobil Corporation have?
Exxon Mobil Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $10.68B
- Total Debt: $50.49B
- Net Cash Position: $-39.81B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Exxon Mobil Corporation's free cash flow?
Exxon Mobil Corporation generated $12.23B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $51.97B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Exxon Mobil Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Exxon Mobil Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.7%
- Payout Ratio: 59.7%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 65
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -21.7%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Exxon Mobil Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Exxon Mobil Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 4.61, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Exxon Mobil Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Exxon Mobil Corporation scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is XOM's return on equity (ROE)?
Exxon Mobil Corporation's return on equity is 11.1%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy XOM stock?
XOM shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol XOM
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is XOM a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Exxon Mobil Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Exxon Mobil Corporation?
The current CEO of Exxon Mobil Corporation is Mr. Darren W. Woods.
What is XOM's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $6.70
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $10.04
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $10.11
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $10.06
Other Energy companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
XOM analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings