Chevron Corporation (CVX) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Is Chevron Corporation a safe investment right now?
Chevron Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 3.38 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $206.73 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Chevron Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.38 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CVX's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0159 | 1.2 | 0.02 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.6338 | 1.4 | 0.89 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0647 | 3.3 | 0.21 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.8151 | 0.6 | 1.69 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.5692 | 1.0 | 0.57 |
How has CVX's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.95 | Safe |
| 2023 | 4.48 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.39 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.38 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from CVX's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Chevron Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $8.65 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $6.63 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $11.68 | 23 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 28.1x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 23.9x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $211.48 (23 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Chevron Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up CVX's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CVX's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27.6% | — |
| 2023 | 16.6% | Declining |
| 2024 | 15.9% | Stable |
| 2025 | 9.3% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Chevron Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Chevron Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 103.2%. FCF covers the dividend 3.4x. 58 consecutive years of payments.
Chevron Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $184.4B | $193.4B | $235.7B | Declining |
| Net Income | $12.3B | $17.7B | $35.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $16.6B | $15.0B | $37.6B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 30.4% | 29.4% | 31.4% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our CVX analysis
CVX earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.99. Revenue estimate: $52.70B. Our current Fair Value: $206.73 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
CVX analyst consensus: 72% bullish (18 of 25 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $211.48 (13.5% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $206.73.
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX paid $1.7800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 103.2%.
CVX beat EPS estimates by 5.2%
Reported EPS: $1.52 vs estimate $1.44. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $206.73 (11.0% above current price).
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX paid $1.7100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 103.2%.
CVX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX beat EPS estimates by 8.4%
Reported EPS: $1.85 vs estimate $1.71. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $206.73 (11.0% above current price).
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX paid $1.7100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 103.2%.
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX beat EPS estimates by 1.7%
Reported EPS: $1.77 vs estimate $1.74. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $206.73 (11.0% above current price).
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX paid $1.7100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 103.2%.
CVX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX beat EPS estimates by 1.3%
Reported EPS: $2.18 vs estimate $2.15. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $206.73 (11.0% above current price).
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX paid $1.7100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 103.2%.
CVX missed EPS estimates by 2.3%
Reported EPS: $2.06 vs estimate $2.11. Our Fair Value of $206.73 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CVX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Chevron Corporation
What is Chevron Corporation stock price today?
Chevron Corporation (CVX) stock price is $186.32 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Chevron Corporation do?
Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and All Other segments. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration for, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification of liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and operation of a gas-to-liquids plant.
What is Chevron Corporation market cap?
Chevron Corporation has a market capitalization of $371.13B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Energy sector.
What sector and industry is CVX in?
Chevron Corporation operates in the Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas Integrated industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol CVX.
Is CVX stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Chevron Corporation trades 9.9% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $206.73
- Current Price: $186.32
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is CVX stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 23 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Chevron Corporation is $211.48, implying upside of 13.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $236.00
- Analyst Low Target: $165.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Chevron Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Chevron Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 20.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 60.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): -7.9%
- EPS growth (next year est.): -2.4%
What are Chevron Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $184.4B | Declining |
| Net Income | $12.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $16.6B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 30.4% | Stable |
What is CVX's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 28.1x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 16.4x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 23.9x
How volatile is CVX stock?
Chevron Corporation has a beta of 0.59, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Chevron Corporation have?
Chevron Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $6.30B
- Total Debt: $46.74B
- Net Cash Position: $-40.45B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Chevron Corporation's free cash flow?
Chevron Corporation generated $13.20B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $33.94B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Chevron Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Chevron Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 3.7%
- Payout Ratio: 103.2%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 58
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -19.6%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Chevron Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Chevron Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 3.38, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Chevron Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Chevron Corporation scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is CVX's return on equity (ROE)?
Chevron Corporation's return on equity is 7.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CVX stock?
CVX shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CVX
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CVX a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Chevron Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Chevron Corporation?
The current CEO of Chevron Corporation is Mr. Michael K. Wirth.
What is CVX's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $6.63
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $11.40
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $11.68
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $11.40
Other Energy companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CVX analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings