Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Is Valero Energy Corporation a safe investment right now?
Valero Energy Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 5.0 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $347.95 (Strong Buy Zone). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Valero Energy Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 5.0 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives VLO's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1569 | 1.2 | 0.19 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.8271 | 1.4 | 1.16 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0614 | 3.3 | 0.2 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.233 | 0.6 | 1.34 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 2.1157 | 1.0 | 2.12 |
How has VLO's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.94 | Safe |
| 2023 | 5.35 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.94 | Safe |
| 2025 | 5.0 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from VLO's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Valero Energy Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $13.23 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $7.57 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $21.72 | 18 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 31.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 26.3x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $245.11 (18 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Valero Energy Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up VLO's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is VLO's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 45.0% | — |
| 2023 | 32.6% | Declining |
| 2024 | 12.2% | Declining |
| 2025 | 10.4% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Valero Energy Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Valero Energy Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 59.7%. FCF covers the dividend 7.0x. 41 consecutive years of payments.
Valero Energy Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $122.7B | $129.9B | $176.4B | Declining |
| Net Income | $2.3B | $2.8B | $11.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.0B | $5.8B | $10.9B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 4.4% | 3.7% | 9.5% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our VLO analysis
VLO earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $3.05. Revenue estimate: $29.68B. Our current Fair Value: $347.95 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
VLO analyst consensus: 53% bullish (10 of 19 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $245.11 (4.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $347.95.
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO paid $1.2000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.7%.
VLO beat EPS estimates by 16.9%
Reported EPS: $3.82 vs estimate $3.27. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $347.95 (48.5% above current price).
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO paid $1.1300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.7%.
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO beat EPS estimates by 19.9%
Reported EPS: $3.66 vs estimate $3.05. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $347.95 (48.5% above current price).
VLO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO paid $1.1300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.7%.
VLO beat EPS estimates by 29.1%
Reported EPS: $2.28 vs estimate $1.77. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $347.95 (48.5% above current price).
VLO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO paid $1.1300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.7%.
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO beat EPS estimates by 86.7%
Reported EPS: $0.89 vs estimate $0.48. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $347.95 (48.5% above current price).
VLO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO beat EPS estimates by 970.8%
Reported EPS: $0.64 vs estimate $0.06. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $347.95 (48.5% above current price).
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VLO paid $1.1300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.7%.
Common questions about Valero Energy Corporation
What is Valero Energy Corporation stock price today?
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) stock price is $234.36 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Valero Energy Corporation do?
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. It produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils.
What is Valero Energy Corporation market cap?
Valero Energy Corporation has a market capitalization of $70.08B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector.
What sector and industry is VLO in?
Valero Energy Corporation operates in the Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol VLO.
Is VLO stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Valero Energy Corporation trades 32.6% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $347.95
- Current Price: $234.36
- Valuation Zone: Strong Buy Zone
What is VLO stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 18 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Valero Energy Corporation is $245.11, implying upside of 4.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $292.00
- Analyst Low Target: $178.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Valero Energy Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Valero Energy Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 3.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 104.7%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): -3.2%
- EPS growth (next year est.): -18.5%
What are Valero Energy Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $122.7B | Declining |
| Net Income | $2.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 4.4% | Declining |
What is VLO's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 31.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 13.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 26.3x
How volatile is VLO stock?
Valero Energy Corporation has a beta of 0.61, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Valero Energy Corporation have?
Valero Energy Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $4.69B
- Total Debt: $11.70B
- Net Cash Position: $-7.02B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Valero Energy Corporation's free cash flow?
Valero Energy Corporation generated $3.72B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $5.83B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Valero Energy Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Valero Energy Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.9%
- Payout Ratio: 59.7%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 41
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -21.1%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Valero Energy Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Valero Energy Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 5.00, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Valero Energy Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Valero Energy Corporation scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is VLO's return on equity (ROE)?
Valero Energy Corporation's return on equity is 8.3%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy VLO stock?
VLO shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol VLO
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is VLO a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Valero Energy Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Valero Energy Corporation?
The current CEO of Valero Energy Corporation is Mr. R. Lane Riggs.
What is VLO's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $7.57
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $17.70
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $21.72
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $17.70
Other Energy companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
VLO analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings