Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Is Diamondback Energy, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.52 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $295.04 (Strong Buy Zone). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Diamondback Energy, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.52 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives FANG's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0378 | 1.2 | -0.05 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0667 | 1.4 | 0.09 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0301 | 3.3 | 0.1 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.9414 | 0.6 | 1.16 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.2101 | 1.0 | 0.21 |
How has FANG's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.24 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.72 | Safe |
| 2024 | 1.63 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.52 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from FANG's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Diamondback Energy, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $10.28 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $5.73 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $17.11 | 30 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 33.8x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 28.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $220.47 (30 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Diamondback Energy, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up FANG's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is FANG's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27.7% | — |
| 2023 | 19.0% | Declining |
| 2024 | 9.4% | Declining |
| 2025 | 4.2% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Diamondback Energy, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 69.8%. FCF covers the dividend 1.7x. 9 consecutive years of payments.
Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.9B | $11.0B | $9.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.7B | $3.3B | $4.4B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.7B | −$5.4B | $2.7B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 35.0% | 45.3% | 70.0% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our FANG analysis
FANG earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $3.60. Revenue estimate: $3.83B. Our current Fair Value: $295.04 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
FANG analyst consensus: 84% bullish (26 of 31 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 20 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $220.47 (13.7% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $295.04.
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG paid $1.0500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 69.8%.
FANG filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG missed EPS estimates by 13.2%
Reported EPS: $1.74 vs estimate $2.00. Our Fair Value of $295.04 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG paid $1.0000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 69.8%.
FANG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG beat EPS estimates by 4.6%
Reported EPS: $3.08 vs estimate $2.94. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $295.04 (52.2% above current price).
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG paid $1.0000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 69.8%.
FANG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG missed EPS estimates by 2.0%
Reported EPS: $2.67 vs estimate $2.72. Our Fair Value of $295.04 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG paid $1.0000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 69.8%.
FANG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG beat EPS estimates by 8.1%
Reported EPS: $4.54 vs estimate $4.20. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $295.04 (52.2% above current price).
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG paid $1.0000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 69.8%.
FANG filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG beat EPS estimates by 7.5%
Reported EPS: $3.64 vs estimate $3.38. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $295.04 (52.2% above current price).
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FANG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Diamondback Energy, Inc.
What is Diamondback Energy, Inc. stock price today?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) stock price is $193.87 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Diamondback Energy, Inc. do?
Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the United States. It primarily focuses on the development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland Basin; and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware Basin, both of which are part of the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Diamondback Energy, Inc.
What is Diamondback Energy, Inc. market cap?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. has a market capitalization of $54.54B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector.
What sector and industry is FANG in?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. operates in the Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas E&P industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol FANG.
Is FANG stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Diamondback Energy, Inc. trades 34.3% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $295.04
- Current Price: $193.87
- Valuation Zone: Strong Buy Zone
What is FANG stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 30 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Diamondback Energy, Inc. is $220.47, implying upside of 13.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $266.00
- Analyst Low Target: $175.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Diamondback Energy, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Diamondback Energy, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 10.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 28.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): -2.8%
- EPS growth (next year est.): -0.8%
What are Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.7B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 35.0% | Declining |
What is FANG's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 33.8x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 11.5x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 28.7x
How volatile is FANG stock?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. has a beta of 0.49, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Diamondback Energy, Inc. have?
Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $104.0M
- Total Debt: $14.52B
- Net Cash Position: $-14.41B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. generated $497.6M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $8.76B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Diamondback Energy, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Diamondback Energy, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.1%
- Payout Ratio: 69.8%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 9
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -9.7%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Diamondback Energy, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 1.52, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Diamondback Energy, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Diamondback Energy, Inc. scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is FANG's return on equity (ROE)?
Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s return on equity is 3.7%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy FANG stock?
FANG shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol FANG
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is FANG a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Diamondback Energy, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Diamondback Energy, Inc.?
The current CEO of Diamondback Energy, Inc. is Mr. Matthew Kaes Van't Hof.
What is FANG's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $5.74
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $16.90
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $17.11
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $16.97
Other Energy companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
FANG analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings