Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Is Antero Resources Corporation a safe investment right now?
Antero Resources Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 2.03 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $47.63 (Strong Buy Zone). Moat rating: 2.7/5 stars.
Could Antero Resources Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.03 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives AR's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0507 | 1.2 | -0.06 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.127 | 1.4 | 0.18 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0735 | 3.3 | 0.24 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.1536 | 0.6 | 1.29 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3785 | 1.0 | 0.38 |
How has AR's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.2 | Gray |
| 2023 | 1.58 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.61 | Distress |
| 2025 | 2.03 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from AR's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Antero Resources Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $2.94 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.03 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $4.30 | 21 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 19.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 16.2x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $49.38 (21 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Antero Resources Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.7/5.
What makes up AR's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is AR's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 32.3% | — |
| 2023 | 5.7% | Declining |
| 2024 | 1.1% | Declining |
| 2025 | 10.9% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Antero Resources Corporation's dividend safe?
Antero Resources Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.0B | $4.1B | $8.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.6B | $0.1B | $1.9B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $0.7B | $2.9B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 22.1% | 8.0% | 55.3% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our AR analysis
AR earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.14. Revenue estimate: $1.64B. Our current Fair Value: $47.63 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
AR analyst consensus: 67% bullish (14 of 21 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $49.38 (27.9% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $47.63.
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR missed EPS estimates by 17.9%
Reported EPS: $0.43 vs estimate $0.52. Our Fair Value of $47.63 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR missed EPS estimates by 37.3%
Reported EPS: $0.16 vs estimate $0.25. Our Fair Value of $47.63 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR missed EPS estimates by 16.4%
Reported EPS: $0.35 vs estimate $0.42. Our Fair Value of $47.63 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR missed EPS estimates by 11.0%
Reported EPS: $0.78 vs estimate $0.88. Our Fair Value of $47.63 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR beat EPS estimates by 100.2%
Reported EPS: $0.57 vs estimate $0.29. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $47.63 (23.4% above current price).
AR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AR filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Antero Resources Corporation
What is Antero Resources Corporation stock price today?
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) stock price is $38.60 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Antero Resources Corporation do?
Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and Production; Marketing; and Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream. As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 537,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and approximately 168,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale.
What is Antero Resources Corporation market cap?
Antero Resources Corporation has a market capitalization of $11.91B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Energy sector.
What sector and industry is AR in?
Antero Resources Corporation operates in the Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas E&P industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol AR.
Is AR stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Antero Resources Corporation trades 19.0% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $47.63
- Current Price: $38.60
- Valuation Zone: Strong Buy Zone
What is AR stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 21 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Antero Resources Corporation is $49.38, implying upside of 27.9% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $56.00
- Analyst Low Target: $36.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Antero Resources Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Antero Resources Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 24.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 149.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.1%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 8.1%
What are Antero Resources Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.0B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.6B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 22.1% | Declining |
What is AR's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 19.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 8.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 16.2x
How volatile is AR stock?
Antero Resources Corporation has a beta of 0.42, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Antero Resources Corporation have?
Antero Resources Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: N/A
- Total Debt: $3.53B
- Net Cash Position: $-3.53B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Antero Resources Corporation's free cash flow?
Antero Resources Corporation generated $-467250.00 in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.63B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Antero Resources Corporation pay a dividend?
Antero Resources Corporation does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Antero Resources Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Antero Resources Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 2.03, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Antero Resources Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Antero Resources Corporation scores 2.7/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is AR's return on equity (ROE)?
Antero Resources Corporation's return on equity is 9.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy AR stock?
AR shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol AR
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is AR a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Antero Resources Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Antero Resources Corporation?
The current CEO of Antero Resources Corporation is Mr. Michael N. Kennedy.
What is AR's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.03
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $4.65
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $4.30
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $4.65
Other Energy companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
AR analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings