FairValueLabs Valuation System Value Investment
HOLX

Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating

NMS · Healthcare · Medical Instruments & Supplies

$76.01 Buy Zone 0.00 (0.0%) As of Apr 22, 2026 Not a buy/sell recommendation. See disclaimer.
Overall Verdict Safe Zone
4.20
Altman Z-ScoreSafe Zone
$87.10
Fair ValueBuy Zone (12.7%)
2.7
Moat RatingNarrow moat · eroding
TL;DR · Audit Summary

Is Hologic, Inc. a safe investment right now?

Hologic, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 4.2 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $87.10 (Buy Zone). Moat rating: 2.7/5 stars.

Price Chart · HOLX
Section 01 · Financial Health

Could Hologic, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis

4.20

Z-Score of 4.2 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.

  • Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
  • 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
  • Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)

What drives HOLX's Z-Score?

Altman Z-Score components for HOLX
ComponentFormulaValueWeightContribution
A · Working Capital / Total AssetsWC / TA0.29851.20.36
B · Retained Earnings / Total AssetsRE / TA0.37841.40.53
C · EBIT / Total AssetsEBIT / TA0.08863.30.29
D · Market Cap / Total LiabilitiesMCap / TL4.27750.62.57
E · Revenue / Total AssetsRev / TA0.45491.00.45

How has HOLX's financial health changed over time?

3.0 Safe1.8 Distress0.01.22.43.64.82022202320242025
HOLX Z-Score history
YearZ-ScoreZone
20224.21Safe
20233.9Safe
20244.13Safe
20254.2Safe

Source: Calculated from HOLX's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.

Section 02 · Fair Value Estimate

What is Hologic, Inc. actually worth?

FVL Fair Value$87.10
vs
Market Price$76.01
Buy Zone 12.7% Stock trades 12.7% below our estimated fair value of $87.10.

How we calculated this

FVL Valuation Model
InputValueSource
Predicted EPS (α)$3.25Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α
Last Year EPS$2.49Annual report (SEC EDGAR)
Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year)$4.469 analysts consensus
Trailing P/E31.5xCurrent market pricing
Fair P/E (β discount)26.8xTrailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped
Earnings Trend (γ)AcceleratingDirectional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS

Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $76.67 (9 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.

Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.

Section 03 · Competitive Moat

Does Hologic, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?

★★½☆☆
Narrow moat · eroding

Moat rating: 2.7/5.

What makes up HOLX's moat score?

ROIC Stability

★★★☆☆

ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.

Gross Margin Trend

★★☆☆☆

Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.

Switching Costs

★★★☆☆

Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.

How stable is HOLX's return on invested capital?

0%-5%3%11%19%27%2022202320242025
HOLX ROIC history
YearROICTrend
202221.9%
202310.1%Declining
202412.9%Rising
202510.6%Declining

Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.

Section 04 · Dividend Safety

Is Hologic, Inc.'s dividend safe?

Status Suspended Hologic, Inc. has suspended its dividend. No payout is currently being made to shareholders.
Section 05 · Financial Summary

Hologic, Inc.'s key financial metrics

HOLX financial summary
MetricLatest1Y Ago3Y AgoTrend
Revenue $4.1B $4.0B $4.9B Declining
Net Income $0.6B $0.8B $1.3B Declining
Free Cash Flow $0.9B $1.1B $2.0B Declining
Gross Margin 51.6% 55.3% 61.6% Declining
Section 06 · Lab Signals

Recent events that affect our HOLX analysis

EARNINGS

HOLX earnings report scheduled

Lab Impact

Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.07. Revenue estimate: $1.03B. Our current Fair Value: $87.10 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.

ANALYST

HOLX analyst consensus: 0% bullish (0 of 15 analysts)

Lab Impact

0 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 15 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $76.67 (0.9% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $87.10.

EARNINGS

HOLX missed EPS estimates by 5.4%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $1.04 vs estimate $1.10. Our Fair Value of $87.10 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.

EARNINGS

HOLX beat EPS estimates by 2.6%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $1.13 vs estimate $1.10. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $87.10 (14.6% above current price).

EARNINGS

HOLX beat EPS estimates by 2.7%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $1.08 vs estimate $1.05. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $87.10 (14.6% above current price).

EARNINGS

HOLX beat EPS estimates by 1.4%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $1.03 vs estimate $1.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $87.10 (14.6% above current price).

EARNINGS

HOLX beat EPS estimates by 1.4%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $1.03 vs estimate $1.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $87.10 (14.6% above current price).

Section 07 · FAQ

Common questions about Hologic, Inc.

What is Hologic, Inc. stock price today?

Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) stock price is $76.01 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.

What does Hologic, Inc. do?

Hologic, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and supply of diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for women's health through early detection and treatment worldwide. It operates through four segments: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health.

What is Hologic, Inc. market cap?

Hologic, Inc. has a market capitalization of $16.97B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Healthcare sector.

What sector and industry is HOLX in?

Hologic, Inc. operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically within the Medical Instruments & Supplies industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol HOLX.

Is HOLX stock overvalued or undervalued?

Based on our valuation model, Hologic, Inc. trades 12.7% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.

  • FairValueLabs Fair Value: $87.10
  • Current Price: $76.01
  • Valuation Zone: Buy Zone
What is HOLX stock forecast and analyst target price?

Based on 9 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Hologic, Inc. is $76.67, implying upside of 0.9% from the current price.

  • Analyst High Target: $78.00
  • Analyst Low Target: $76.00

Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.

Is Hologic, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?

Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Hologic, Inc.:

  • Revenue growth (current year est.): 3.3%
  • EPS growth (current year est.): 4.6%
  • Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.3%
  • EPS growth (next year est.): 15.4%
What are Hologic, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
MetricLatestTrend
Revenue$4.1BDeclining
Net Income$0.6BDeclining
Free Cash Flow$0.9BDeclining
Gross Margin51.6%Declining
What is HOLX's P/E ratio?

The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:

  • Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 31.5x
  • Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 15.7x
  • FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 26.8x
How volatile is HOLX stock?

Hologic, Inc. has a beta of 0.70, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.

How much cash and debt does Hologic, Inc. have?

Hologic, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:

  • Total Cash: $2.37B
  • Total Debt: $2.52B
  • Net Cash Position: $-153.7M

A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.

What is Hologic, Inc.'s free cash flow?

Hologic, Inc. generated $848.6M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.10B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.

Does Hologic, Inc. pay a dividend?

Hologic, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.

Is Hologic, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?

Hologic, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 4.20, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.

Does Hologic, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?

Hologic, Inc. scores 2.7/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:

  • ROIC Stability: 3/5
  • Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
  • Switching Costs: 3/5

A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.

What is HOLX's return on equity (ROE)?

Hologic, Inc.'s return on equity is 10.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.

How do I buy HOLX stock?

HOLX shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:

  1. Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
  2. Search for ticker symbol HOLX
  3. Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares

This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.

Is HOLX a value stock or speculative?

FairValueLabs classifies Hologic, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.

What is HOLX's earnings per share (EPS)?

Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:

  • Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.41
  • Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $4.86
  • Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $4.46
  • Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.78

FairValueLabs Disclaimer

All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.

This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.

HOLX analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings