Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Healthcare · Medical Instruments & Supplies
Is Hologic, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Hologic, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 4.2 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $87.10 (Buy Zone). Moat rating: 2.7/5 stars.
Could Hologic, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.2 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives HOLX's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2985 | 1.2 | 0.36 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3784 | 1.4 | 0.53 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0886 | 3.3 | 0.29 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 4.2775 | 0.6 | 2.57 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4549 | 1.0 | 0.45 |
How has HOLX's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.21 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.9 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.13 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.2 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from HOLX's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Hologic, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $3.25 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.49 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $4.46 | 9 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 31.5x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 26.8x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $76.67 (9 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Hologic, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.7/5.
What makes up HOLX's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is HOLX's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21.9% | — |
| 2023 | 10.1% | Declining |
| 2024 | 12.9% | Rising |
| 2025 | 10.6% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Hologic, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Hologic, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.1B | $4.0B | $4.9B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.6B | $0.8B | $1.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.9B | $1.1B | $2.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 51.6% | 55.3% | 61.6% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our HOLX analysis
HOLX earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.07. Revenue estimate: $1.03B. Our current Fair Value: $87.10 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
HOLX analyst consensus: 0% bullish (0 of 15 analysts)
0 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 15 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $76.67 (0.9% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $87.10.
HOLX missed EPS estimates by 5.4%
Reported EPS: $1.04 vs estimate $1.10. Our Fair Value of $87.10 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
HOLX beat EPS estimates by 2.6%
Reported EPS: $1.13 vs estimate $1.10. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $87.10 (14.6% above current price).
HOLX beat EPS estimates by 2.7%
Reported EPS: $1.08 vs estimate $1.05. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $87.10 (14.6% above current price).
HOLX beat EPS estimates by 1.4%
Reported EPS: $1.03 vs estimate $1.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $87.10 (14.6% above current price).
HOLX beat EPS estimates by 1.4%
Reported EPS: $1.03 vs estimate $1.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $87.10 (14.6% above current price).
Common questions about Hologic, Inc.
What is Hologic, Inc. stock price today?
Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) stock price is $76.01 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Hologic, Inc. do?
Hologic, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and supply of diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for women's health through early detection and treatment worldwide. It operates through four segments: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health.
What is Hologic, Inc. market cap?
Hologic, Inc. has a market capitalization of $16.97B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Healthcare sector.
What sector and industry is HOLX in?
Hologic, Inc. operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically within the Medical Instruments & Supplies industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol HOLX.
Is HOLX stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Hologic, Inc. trades 12.7% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $87.10
- Current Price: $76.01
- Valuation Zone: Buy Zone
What is HOLX stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Hologic, Inc. is $76.67, implying upside of 0.9% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $78.00
- Analyst Low Target: $76.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Hologic, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Hologic, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 3.3%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 4.6%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 15.4%
What are Hologic, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.1B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.6B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.9B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 51.6% | Declining |
What is HOLX's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 31.5x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 15.7x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 26.8x
How volatile is HOLX stock?
Hologic, Inc. has a beta of 0.70, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Hologic, Inc. have?
Hologic, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.37B
- Total Debt: $2.52B
- Net Cash Position: $-153.7M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Hologic, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Hologic, Inc. generated $848.6M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.10B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Hologic, Inc. pay a dividend?
Hologic, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Hologic, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Hologic, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 4.20, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Hologic, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Hologic, Inc. scores 2.7/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is HOLX's return on equity (ROE)?
Hologic, Inc.'s return on equity is 10.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy HOLX stock?
HOLX shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol HOLX
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is HOLX a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Hologic, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
What is HOLX's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.41
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $4.86
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $4.46
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.78
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
HOLX analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings