The Cigna Group (CI) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
Is The Cigna Group a safe investment right now?
The Cigna Group's Altman Z-Score of 2.74 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $267.12 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.0/5 stars.
Could The Cigna Group go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.74 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CI's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3031 | 1.4 | 0.42 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0582 | 3.3 | 0.19 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.6323 | 0.6 | 0.38 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.7406 | 1.0 | 1.74 |
How has CI's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.29 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.22 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.48 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.74 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from CI's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is The Cigna Group actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $25.44 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $22.18 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $30.33 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 12.4x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 10.5x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $338.29 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does The Cigna Group have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.0/5.
What makes up CI's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CI's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12.7% | — |
| 2023 | 9.0% | Declining |
| 2024 | 9.2% | Stable |
| 2025 | 12.6% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is The Cigna Group's dividend safe?
Can The Cigna Group afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 27.2%. FCF covers the dividend 5.3x. 45 consecutive years of payments.
The Cigna Group's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $274.9B | $244.4B | $180.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $6.0B | $3.4B | $6.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.4B | $9.0B | $7.4B | Rising |
Recent events that affect our CI analysis
CI earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $7.61. Revenue estimate: $66.04B. Our current Fair Value: $267.12 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
CI analyst consensus: 92% bullish (22 of 24 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 16 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $338.29 (23.1% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $267.12.
CI paid $1.5600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.2%.
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI beat EPS estimates by 2.5%
Reported EPS: $8.08 vs estimate $7.88. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $267.12 (2.8% below current price).
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI paid $1.5100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.2%.
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI beat EPS estimates by 2.5%
Reported EPS: $7.83 vs estimate $7.64. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $267.12 (2.8% below current price).
CI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI paid $1.5100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.2%.
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI beat EPS estimates by 0.7%
Reported EPS: $7.20 vs estimate $7.15. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $267.12 (2.8% below current price).
CI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI paid $1.5100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.2%.
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI beat EPS estimates by 6.2%
Reported EPS: $6.74 vs estimate $6.35. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $267.12 (2.8% below current price).
CI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI paid $1.5100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.2%.
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CI missed EPS estimates by 15.1%
Reported EPS: $6.64 vs estimate $7.82. Our Fair Value of $267.12 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about The Cigna Group
What is The Cigna Group stock price today?
The Cigna Group (CI) stock price is $274.70 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does The Cigna Group do?
The Cigna Group, together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and related products and services in the United States. It operates through two segments: Evernorth Health Services and Cigna Healthcare. The Evernorth Health Services segment includes Pharmacy Benefit Services and Specialty and Care Services, offering pharmacy benefit management, drug claim adjudication, retail pharmacy network administration, benefit design consultation, drug utilization review, drug formulary management, pharmacy benefits, home delivery pharmacy, specialty pharmacy, specialty pharmaceutical distribution, and clinical programs for whole-person health outcomes.
What is The Cigna Group market cap?
The Cigna Group has a market capitalization of $73.38B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Healthcare sector.
What sector and industry is CI in?
The Cigna Group operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically within the Healthcare Plans industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol CI.
Is CI stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, The Cigna Group trades 2.8% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $267.12
- Current Price: $274.70
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is CI stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for The Cigna Group is $338.29, implying upside of 23.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $378.00
- Analyst Low Target: $290.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is The Cigna Group revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for The Cigna Group:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 2.8%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 1.6%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.8%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 10.2%
What are The Cigna Group's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $274.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $6.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.4B | Rising |
What is CI's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 12.4x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 8.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 10.5x
How volatile is CI stock?
The Cigna Group has a beta of 0.27, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does The Cigna Group have?
The Cigna Group's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $8.73B
- Total Debt: $31.46B
- Net Cash Position: $-22.73B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is The Cigna Group's free cash flow?
The Cigna Group generated $9.77B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $9.60B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does The Cigna Group pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, The Cigna Group pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.2%
- Payout Ratio: 27.2%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 45
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -17.2%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is The Cigna Group at risk of going bankrupt?
The Cigna Group's Altman Z-Score is 2.74, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does The Cigna Group have a durable competitive advantage?
The Cigna Group scores 3.0/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is CI's return on equity (ROE)?
The Cigna Group's return on equity is 15.1%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CI stock?
CI shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CI
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CI a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies The Cigna Group as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of The Cigna Group?
The current CEO of The Cigna Group is Mr. David Michael Cordani.
What is CI's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $22.17
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $33.42
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $30.33
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $33.42
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CI analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings