Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Is Eli Lilly and Company a safe investment right now?
Eli Lilly and Company's Altman Z-Score of 7.73 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $941.84 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Eli Lilly and Company go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 7.73 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives LLY's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1814 | 1.2 | 0.22 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2176 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.264 | 3.3 | 0.87 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 9.5966 | 0.6 | 5.76 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.5795 | 1.0 | 0.58 |
How has LLY's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 14.14 | Safe |
| 2023 | 10.57 | Safe |
| 2024 | 9.27 | Safe |
| 2025 | 7.73 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from LLY's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Eli Lilly and Company actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $27.62 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $22.95 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $34.62 | 29 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 40.2x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 34.1x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $1,209.86 (29 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Eli Lilly and Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up LLY's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is LLY's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 26.6% | — |
| 2023 | 28.7% | Rising |
| 2024 | 35.6% | Rising |
| 2025 | 43.0% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Eli Lilly and Company's dividend safe?
Can Eli Lilly and Company afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 26.1%. FCF covers the dividend 1.3x. 55 consecutive years of payments.
Eli Lilly and Company's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $65.2B | $45.0B | $28.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $20.6B | $10.6B | $6.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.0B | $0.4B | $4.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 83.0% | 81.3% | 76.8% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our LLY analysis
LLY earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $6.90. Revenue estimate: $17.89B. Our current Fair Value: $941.84 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
LLY analyst consensus: 77% bullish (24 of 31 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $1209.86 (31.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $941.84.
LLY paid $1.7300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 26.1%.
LLY filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY beat EPS estimates by 9.1%
Reported EPS: $7.54 vs estimate $6.91. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $941.84 (2.2% above current price).
LLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY paid $1.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 26.1%.
LLY beat EPS estimates by 19.1%
Reported EPS: $7.02 vs estimate $5.89. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $941.84 (2.2% above current price).
LLY filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY paid $1.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 26.1%.
LLY beat EPS estimates by 12.9%
Reported EPS: $6.31 vs estimate $5.59. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $941.84 (2.2% above current price).
LLY filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY paid $1.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 26.1%.
LLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY missed EPS estimates by 5.7%
Reported EPS: $3.34 vs estimate $3.54. Our Fair Value of $941.84 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
LLY filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY paid $1.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 26.1%.
LLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY beat EPS estimates by 5.0%
Reported EPS: $5.32 vs estimate $5.07. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $941.84 (2.2% above current price).
LLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LLY filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Eli Lilly and Company
What is Eli Lilly and Company stock price today?
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) stock price is $921.48 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Eli Lilly and Company do?
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. It offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity. It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer.
What is Eli Lilly and Company market cap?
Eli Lilly and Company has a market capitalization of $824.74B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Healthcare sector.
What sector and industry is LLY in?
Eli Lilly and Company operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically within the Drug Manufacturers - General industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol LLY.
Is LLY stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Eli Lilly and Company trades 2.2% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $941.84
- Current Price: $921.48
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is LLY stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 29 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Eli Lilly and Company is $1209.86, implying upside of 31.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $1500.00
- Analyst Low Target: $850.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Eli Lilly and Company revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Eli Lilly and Company:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 25.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 43.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 16.2%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 21.7%
What are Eli Lilly and Company's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $65.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $20.6B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 83.0% | Rising |
What is LLY's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 40.2x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 21.8x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 34.1x
How volatile is LLY stock?
Eli Lilly and Company has a beta of 0.50, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Eli Lilly and Company have?
Eli Lilly and Company's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $7.27B
- Total Debt: $43.87B
- Net Cash Position: $-36.60B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Eli Lilly and Company's free cash flow?
Eli Lilly and Company generated $1.95B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $16.81B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Eli Lilly and Company pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Eli Lilly and Company pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.7%
- Payout Ratio: 26.1%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 55
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -12.6%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Eli Lilly and Company at risk of going bankrupt?
Eli Lilly and Company's Altman Z-Score is 7.73, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Eli Lilly and Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Eli Lilly and Company scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is LLY's return on equity (ROE)?
Eli Lilly and Company's return on equity is 101.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy LLY stock?
LLY shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol LLY
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is LLY a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Eli Lilly and Company as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Eli Lilly and Company?
The current CEO of Eli Lilly and Company is Mr. David A. Ricks.
What is LLY's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $22.94
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $42.21
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $34.62
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $42.14
Other Healthcare companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
LLY analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings