Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
Is Illumina, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Illumina, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 4.52 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $108.00 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 2.6/5 stars.
Could Illumina, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.52 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ILMN's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2565 | 1.2 | 0.31 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.059 | 1.4 | -0.08 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1787 | 3.3 | 0.59 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 5.0889 | 0.6 | 3.05 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.6537 | 1.0 | 0.65 |
How has ILMN's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.54 | Distress |
| 2023 | 2.97 | Gray |
| 2024 | 3.13 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.52 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from ILMN's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Illumina, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $5.32 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $5.45 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $5.12 | 18 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 23.9x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 20.3x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $136.11 (18 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Illumina, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.6/5.
What makes up ILMN's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ILMN's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -46.2% | — |
| 2023 | -14.4% | Rising |
| 2024 | -24.7% | Declining |
| 2025 | 25.2% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Illumina, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Illumina, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.3B | $4.4B | $4.6B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.8B | −$1.2B | −$4.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.9B | $0.7B | $0.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 66.1% | 65.4% | 64.8% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our ILMN analysis
ILMN earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.05. Revenue estimate: $1.07B. Our current Fair Value: $108.00 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
ILMN analyst consensus: 47% bullish (9 of 19 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $136.11 (4.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $108.00.
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN beat EPS estimates by 9.7%
Reported EPS: $1.35 vs estimate $1.23. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $108.00 (17.2% below current price).
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN beat EPS estimates by 14.7%
Reported EPS: $1.34 vs estimate $1.17. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $108.00 (17.2% below current price).
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN beat EPS estimates by 17.7%
Reported EPS: $1.19 vs estimate $1.01. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $108.00 (17.2% below current price).
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN beat EPS estimates by 3.3%
Reported EPS: $0.97 vs estimate $0.94. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $108.00 (17.2% below current price).
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN beat EPS estimates by 42.7%
Reported EPS: $1.17 vs estimate $0.82. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $108.00 (17.2% below current price).
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ILMN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Illumina, Inc.
What is Illumina, Inc. stock price today?
Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) stock price is $130.50 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Illumina, Inc. do?
Illumina, Inc. provides sequencing- and array-based solutions for genetic and genomic analysis in the Americas, Europe, Greater China, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. It offers sequencing- and array-based instruments and consumables, which include reagents, flow cells, and library preparation; whole-genome sequencing kits, which sequence entire genomes of various size and complexity; and targeted resequencing kits, which sequence exomes, specific genes, and RNA or other genomic regions of interest.
What is Illumina, Inc. market cap?
Illumina, Inc. has a market capitalization of $19.95B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Healthcare sector.
What sector and industry is ILMN in?
Illumina, Inc. operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically within the Diagnostics & Research industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ILMN.
Is ILMN stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Illumina, Inc. trades 20.8% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $108.00
- Current Price: $130.50
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is ILMN stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 18 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Illumina, Inc. is $136.11, implying upside of 4.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $170.00
- Analyst Low Target: $80.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Illumina, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Illumina, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 4.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 5.7%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 13.8%
What are Illumina, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.9B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 66.1% | Stable |
What is ILMN's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 23.9x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 22.4x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 20.3x
How volatile is ILMN stock?
Illumina, Inc. has a beta of 1.49, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Illumina, Inc. have?
Illumina, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.63B
- Total Debt: $2.55B
- Net Cash Position: $-920.0M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Illumina, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Illumina, Inc. generated $786.0M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.08B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Illumina, Inc. pay a dividend?
Illumina, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Illumina, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Illumina, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 4.52, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Illumina, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Illumina, Inc. scores 2.6/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is ILMN's return on equity (ROE)?
Illumina, Inc.'s return on equity is 33.4%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy ILMN stock?
ILMN shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol ILMN
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is ILMN a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Illumina, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Illumina, Inc.?
The current CEO of Illumina, Inc. is Mr. Jacob Thaysen Ph.D..
What is ILMN's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $5.45
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $5.82
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $5.12
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $5.82
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ILMN analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings