UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated a safe investment right now?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's Altman Z-Score of 2.91 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $342.32 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could UnitedHealth Group Incorporated go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.91 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives UNH's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0785 | 1.2 | -0.09 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3088 | 1.4 | 0.43 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0604 | 3.3 | 0.2 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.5445 | 0.6 | 0.93 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.4457 | 1.0 | 1.45 |
How has UNH's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.3 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.25 | Safe |
| 2024 | 2.97 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.91 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from UNH's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $15.08 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $13.23 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $17.86 | 26 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 26.7x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 22.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $363.19 (26 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does UnitedHealth Group Incorporated have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up UNH's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is UNH's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21.0% | — |
| 2023 | 21.4% | Stable |
| 2024 | 14.1% | Declining |
| 2025 | 10.8% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's dividend safe?
Can UnitedHealth Group Incorporated afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 66.0%. FCF covers the dividend 3.9x. 37 consecutive years of payments.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $447.6B | $400.3B | $324.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $12.1B | $14.4B | $20.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $16.1B | $20.7B | $23.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 18.5% | 22.3% | 24.6% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our UNH analysis
UNH earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $4.65. Revenue estimate: $109.62B. Our current Fair Value: $342.32 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
UNH analyst consensus: 79% bullish (22 of 28 analysts)
7 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $363.19 (2.7% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $342.32.
UNH beat EPS estimates by 9.5%
Reported EPS: $7.23 vs estimate $6.60. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $342.32 (3.2% below current price).
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH paid $2.2100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 66.0%.
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH beat EPS estimates by 0.2%
Reported EPS: $2.11 vs estimate $2.11. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $342.32 (3.2% below current price).
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH paid $2.2100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 66.0%.
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH beat EPS estimates by 4.0%
Reported EPS: $2.92 vs estimate $2.81. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $342.32 (3.2% below current price).
UNH filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH paid $2.2100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 66.0%.
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH missed EPS estimates by 8.2%
Reported EPS: $4.08 vs estimate $4.45. Our Fair Value of $342.32 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH paid $2.2100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 66.0%.
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH missed EPS estimates by 1.3%
Reported EPS: $7.20 vs estimate $7.29. Our Fair Value of $342.32 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH paid $2.1000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 66.0%.
UNH filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNH beat EPS estimates by 1.1%
Reported EPS: $6.81 vs estimate $6.74. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $342.32 (3.2% below current price).
UNH filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
What is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated stock price today?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) stock price is $353.52 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does UnitedHealth Group Incorporated do?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx; and UnitedHealthcare. The Optum Health segment provides care delivery, care management, wellness and consumer engagement, and health financial services with patients, consumers, care delivery systems, providers, employers, payers, and public-sector entities.
What is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated market cap?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated has a market capitalization of $321.07B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Healthcare sector.
What sector and industry is UNH in?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically within the Healthcare Plans industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol UNH.
Is UNH stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated trades 3.3% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $342.32
- Current Price: $353.52
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is UNH stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 26 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is $363.19, implying upside of 2.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $440.00
- Analyst Low Target: $278.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): -1.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 9.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 12.6%
What are UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $447.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $12.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $16.1B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 18.5% | Declining |
What is UNH's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 26.7x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 17.1x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 22.7x
How volatile is UNH stock?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated has a beta of 0.41, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does UnitedHealth Group Incorporated have?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $28.12B
- Total Debt: $83.00B
- Net Cash Position: $-54.88B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's free cash flow?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated generated $13.86B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $19.70B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does UnitedHealth Group Incorporated pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.5%
- Payout Ratio: 66.0%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 37
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -17.0%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated at risk of going bankrupt?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's Altman Z-Score is 2.91, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does UnitedHealth Group Incorporated have a durable competitive advantage?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is UNH's return on equity (ROE)?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's return on equity is 12.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy UNH stock?
UNH shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol UNH
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is UNH a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies UnitedHealth Group Incorporated as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?
The current CEO of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is Mr. Stephen J. Hemsley.
What is UNH's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $13.22
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $20.65
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $17.86
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $20.12
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
UNH analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings