Amgen Inc. (AMGN) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Is Amgen Inc. a safe investment right now?
Amgen Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.86 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $361.84 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Amgen Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.86 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives AMGN's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0394 | 1.2 | 0.05 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.2772 | 1.4 | -0.39 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1295 | 3.3 | 0.43 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.2761 | 0.6 | 1.37 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4057 | 1.0 | 0.41 |
How has AMGN's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.17 | Gray |
| 2023 | 1.65 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.6 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.86 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from AMGN's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Amgen Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $17.48 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $14.23 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $22.36 | 30 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 24.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 20.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $352.73 (30 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Amgen Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up AMGN's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is AMGN's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20.5% | — |
| 2023 | 15.2% | Declining |
| 2024 | 11.8% | Declining |
| 2025 | 18.5% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Amgen Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Amgen Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 66.9%. FCF covers the dividend 2.1x. 16 consecutive years of payments.
Amgen Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $36.8B | $33.4B | $26.3B | Rising |
| Net Income | $7.7B | $4.1B | $6.6B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.1B | $10.4B | $8.8B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 67.2% | 61.5% | 75.7% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our AMGN analysis
AMGN earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $4.81. Revenue estimate: $8.60B. Our current Fair Value: $361.84 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
AMGN analyst consensus: 37% bullish (13 of 35 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 19 Hold, 2 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $352.73 (2.0% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $361.84.
AMGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMGN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMGN paid $2.5200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 66.9%.
AMGN beat EPS estimates by 11.9%
Reported EPS: $5.29 vs estimate $4.73. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $361.84 (4.6% above current price).
AMGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMGN paid $2.3800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 66.9%.
AMGN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMGN beat EPS estimates by 12.5%
Reported EPS: $5.64 vs estimate $5.01. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $361.84 (4.6% above current price).
AMGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMGN paid $2.3800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 66.9%.
AMGN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMGN beat EPS estimates by 14.1%
Reported EPS: $6.02 vs estimate $5.28. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $361.84 (4.6% above current price).
AMGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMGN paid $2.3800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 66.9%.
AMGN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMGN beat EPS estimates by 15.0%
Reported EPS: $4.90 vs estimate $4.26. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $361.84 (4.6% above current price).
AMGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMGN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMGN paid $2.3800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 66.9%.
AMGN beat EPS estimates by 4.6%
Reported EPS: $5.31 vs estimate $5.08. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $361.84 (4.6% above current price).
AMGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Amgen Inc.
What is Amgen Inc. stock price today?
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) stock price is $345.92 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Amgen Inc. do?
Amgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. The company's principal products include Enbrel for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; XGEVA for skeletal-related events prevention; Repatha, which reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization; Nplate for the treatment of patients with immune thrombocytopenia; KYPROLIS to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Aranesp to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia; EVENITY for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal for women; Vectibix to treat patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer; BLINCYTO for the treatment of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia; TEPEZZA to treat thyroid eye disease; and KRYSTEXXA for the treatment of chronic refractory gout.
What is Amgen Inc. market cap?
Amgen Inc. has a market capitalization of $186.47B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Healthcare sector.
What sector and industry is AMGN in?
Amgen Inc. operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically within the Drug Manufacturers - General industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol AMGN.
Is AMGN stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Amgen Inc. trades 4.4% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $361.84
- Current Price: $345.92
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is AMGN stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 30 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Amgen Inc. is $352.73, implying upside of 2.0% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $432.00
- Analyst Low Target: $200.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Amgen Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Amgen Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 3.0%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 2.4%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 2.5%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 4.3%
What are Amgen Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $36.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $7.7B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.1B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 67.2% | Declining |
What is AMGN's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 24.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 14.8x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 20.7x
How volatile is AMGN stock?
Amgen Inc. has a beta of 0.47, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Amgen Inc. have?
Amgen Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $9.13B
- Total Debt: $55.44B
- Net Cash Position: $-46.31B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Amgen Inc.'s free cash flow?
Amgen Inc. generated $7.50B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $9.96B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Amgen Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Amgen Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.8%
- Payout Ratio: 66.9%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 16
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -18.6%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Amgen Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Amgen Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 1.86, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Amgen Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Amgen Inc. scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is AMGN's return on equity (ROE)?
Amgen Inc.'s return on equity is 106.1%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy AMGN stock?
AMGN shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol AMGN
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is AMGN a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Amgen Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Amgen Inc.?
The current CEO of Amgen Inc. is Mr. Robert A. Bradway.
What is AMGN's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $14.22
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $23.35
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $22.36
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $23.31
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
AMGN analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings