Medtronic plc (MDT) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Healthcare · Medical Devices
Is Medtronic plc a safe investment right now?
Medtronic plc's Altman Z-Score of 2.69 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $76.63 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 2.6/5 stars.
Could Medtronic plc go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.69 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MDT's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1193 | 1.2 | 0.14 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3433 | 1.4 | 0.48 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0693 | 3.3 | 0.23 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.4605 | 0.6 | 1.48 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3658 | 1.0 | 0.37 |
How has MDT's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.85 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.83 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.81 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.69 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from MDT's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Medtronic plc actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $3.87 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (3Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $3.61 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $5.55 | 25 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 23.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 19.8x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $109.08 (25 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Medtronic plc have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.6/5.
What makes up MDT's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MDT's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7.9% | — |
| 2023 | 7.9% | Stable |
| 2024 | 7.4% | Stable |
| 2025 | 8.3% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Medtronic plc's dividend safe?
Can Medtronic plc afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 79.0%. FCF covers the dividend 1.8x. 45 consecutive years of payments.
Medtronic plc's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $33.5B | $32.4B | $31.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $4.7B | $3.7B | $5.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.2B | $5.2B | $6.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 65.3% | 65.3% | 68.0% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our MDT analysis
MDT earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.56. Revenue estimate: $9.62B. Our current Fair Value: $76.63 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MDT analyst consensus: 62% bullish (18 of 29 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 11 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $109.08 (31.1% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $76.63.
MDT paid $0.7100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 79.0%.
MDT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT beat EPS estimates by 1.9%
Reported EPS: $1.36 vs estimate $1.34. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $76.63 (7.9% below current price).
MDT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT paid $0.7100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 79.0%.
MDT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT beat EPS estimates by 3.5%
Reported EPS: $1.36 vs estimate $1.31. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $76.63 (7.9% below current price).
MDT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT paid $0.7100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 79.0%.
MDT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT beat EPS estimates by 2.5%
Reported EPS: $1.26 vs estimate $1.23. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $76.63 (7.9% below current price).
MDT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT paid $0.7100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 79.0%.
MDT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT beat EPS estimates by 2.7%
Reported EPS: $1.62 vs estimate $1.58. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $76.63 (7.9% below current price).
MDT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT paid $0.7000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 79.0%.
MDT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT beat EPS estimates by 2.2%
Reported EPS: $1.39 vs estimate $1.36. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $76.63 (7.9% below current price).
MDT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MDT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Medtronic plc
What is Medtronic plc stock price today?
Medtronic plc (MDT) stock price is $83.22 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Medtronic plc do?
Medtronic plc develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies to healthcare systems, physicians, clinicians, and patients in the United States, Ireland, and internationally. The Cardiovascular Portfolio segment offers implantable cardiac pacemakers, cardioverter defibrillators, and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices; cardiac ablation products; insertable cardiac monitor systems; TYRX products; and remote monitoring and patient-centered software. It also provides aortic valves, surgical valve replacement and repair products, endovascular stent grafts and accessories, and transcatheter pulmonary valves, and percutaneous coronary intervention products, percutaneous angioplasty balloons, and other products.
What is Medtronic plc market cap?
Medtronic plc has a market capitalization of $106.84B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Healthcare sector.
What sector and industry is MDT in?
Medtronic plc operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically within the Medical Devices industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol MDT.
Is MDT stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Medtronic plc trades 8.6% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $76.63
- Current Price: $83.22
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is MDT stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 25 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Medtronic plc is $109.08, implying upside of 31.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $121.00
- Analyst Low Target: $91.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Medtronic plc revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Medtronic plc:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 7.7%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 1.1%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.9%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 9.2%
What are Medtronic plc's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $33.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $4.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.2B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 65.3% | Stable |
What is MDT's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 23.2x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 13.7x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 19.8x
How volatile is MDT stock?
Medtronic plc has a beta of 0.76, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Medtronic plc have?
Medtronic plc's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $8.38B
- Total Debt: $28.07B
- Net Cash Position: $-19.69B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Medtronic plc's free cash flow?
Medtronic plc generated $4.07B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $7.29B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Medtronic plc pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Medtronic plc pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 3.5%
- Payout Ratio: 79.0%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 45
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -22.1%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Medtronic plc at risk of going bankrupt?
Medtronic plc's Altman Z-Score is 2.69, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Medtronic plc have a durable competitive advantage?
Medtronic plc scores 2.6/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is MDT's return on equity (ROE)?
Medtronic plc's return on equity is 9.4%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy MDT stock?
MDT shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MDT
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MDT a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Medtronic plc as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Medtronic plc?
The current CEO of Medtronic plc is Mr. Geoffrey Straub Martha.
What is MDT's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $3.58
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $6.06
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $5.55
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $6.06
Other Healthcare companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MDT analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings