Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated a safe investment right now?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's Altman Z-Score of 11.72 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $408.48 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 11.72 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives VRTX's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2862 | 1.2 | 0.34 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5288 | 1.4 | 0.74 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1816 | 3.3 | 0.6 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 15.9556 | 0.6 | 9.57 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.468 | 1.0 | 0.47 |
How has VRTX's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18.23 | Safe |
| 2023 | 15.23 | Safe |
| 2024 | 12.36 | Safe |
| 2025 | 11.72 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from VRTX's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $16.81 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $15.32 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $19.04 | 29 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 28.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 24.3x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $548.45 (29 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up VRTX's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is VRTX's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 30.8% | — |
| 2023 | 25.2% | Declining |
| 2024 | 1.7% | Declining |
| 2025 | 24.9% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's dividend safe?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.0B | $11.0B | $8.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $4.0B | −$0.5B | $3.3B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.2B | −$1.0B | $3.9B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 86.2% | 86.1% | 87.9% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our VRTX analysis
VRTX earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $4.29. Revenue estimate: $3.00B. Our current Fair Value: $408.48 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
VRTX analyst consensus: 82% bullish (27 of 33 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 22 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $548.45 (25.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $408.48.
VRTX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VRTX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
VRTX missed EPS estimates by 2.3%
Reported EPS: $5.03 vs estimate $5.15. Our Fair Value of $408.48 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
VRTX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VRTX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VRTX beat EPS estimates by 4.9%
Reported EPS: $4.80 vs estimate $4.58. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $408.48 (6.7% below current price).
VRTX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VRTX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VRTX beat EPS estimates by 6.3%
Reported EPS: $4.52 vs estimate $4.25. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $408.48 (6.7% below current price).
VRTX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VRTX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VRTX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VRTX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VRTX missed EPS estimates by 5.4%
Reported EPS: $4.06 vs estimate $4.29. Our Fair Value of $408.48 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
VRTX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VRTX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VRTX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
VRTX missed EPS estimates by 1.0%
Reported EPS: $3.98 vs estimate $4.02. Our Fair Value of $408.48 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
VRTX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
What is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated stock price today?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) stock price is $437.67 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated do?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated operates as a biotechnology company in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It offers transformative medicines for people with serious diseases with a focus on specialty markets, such as cystic fibrosis (CF), sickle cell disease (SCD), transfusion dependent beta thalassemia (TDT), and acute pain. It markets TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO for people with CF with at least one F508del mutation for 2 years of age and older; ALYFTREK for the treatment for people with CF 6 years of age and older; SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI for treatment of patients with CF 6 years of age and older; ORKAMBI for CF patients 1 year or older; and KALYDECO for the treatment of patients with 1 month or older who have CF with ivacaftor.
What is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated market cap?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated has a market capitalization of $111.33B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Healthcare sector.
What sector and industry is VRTX in?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically within the Biotechnology industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol VRTX.
Is VRTX stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated trades 7.1% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $408.48
- Current Price: $437.67
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is VRTX stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 29 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated is $548.45, implying upside of 25.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $641.00
- Analyst Low Target: $330.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 8.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 3.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 10.0%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 14.5%
What are Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $4.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.2B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 86.2% | Stable |
What is VRTX's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 28.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 20.1x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 24.3x
How volatile is VRTX stock?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated has a beta of 0.37, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated have?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $6.61B
- Total Debt: $2.04B
- Net Cash Position: $4.57B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's free cash flow?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated generated $2.57B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $3.63B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated pay a dividend?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated at risk of going bankrupt?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's Altman Z-Score is 11.72, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated have a durable competitive advantage?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is VRTX's return on equity (ROE)?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's return on equity is 22.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy VRTX stock?
VRTX shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol VRTX
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is VRTX a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated?
The current CEO of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated is Dr. Reshma Kewalramani FASN, M.D..
What is VRTX's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $15.32
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $21.81
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $19.04
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $21.81
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
VRTX analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings