Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Healthcare · Medical Instruments & Supplies
Is Align Technology, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Align Technology, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 5.5 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $233.05 (Strong Buy Zone). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Align Technology, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 5.5 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ALGN's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1117 | 1.2 | 0.13 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3953 | 1.4 | 0.55 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0939 | 3.3 | 0.31 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 6.4272 | 0.6 | 3.86 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.6473 | 1.0 | 0.65 |
How has ALGN's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.29 | Safe |
| 2023 | 5.06 | Safe |
| 2024 | 5.21 | Safe |
| 2025 | 5.5 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from ALGN's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Align Technology, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $7.90 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $5.65 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $11.29 | 14 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 34.7x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 29.5x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $205.50 (14 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Align Technology, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up ALGN's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ALGN's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18.2% | — |
| 2023 | 18.1% | Stable |
| 2024 | 17.4% | Stable |
| 2025 | 14.5% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Align Technology, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Align Technology, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.0B | $4.0B | $3.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.4B | $0.4B | $0.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.5B | $0.6B | $0.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 67.2% | 70.0% | 70.5% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our ALGN analysis
ALGN earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.28. Revenue estimate: $1.02B. Our current Fair Value: $233.05 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
ALGN analyst consensus: 69% bullish (11 of 16 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $205.50 (4.8% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $233.05.
ALGN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN beat EPS estimates by 10.8%
Reported EPS: $3.29 vs estimate $2.97. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $233.05 (18.9% above current price).
ALGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN missed EPS estimates by 39.3%
Reported EPS: $0.78 vs estimate $1.29. Our Fair Value of $233.05 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ALGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN missed EPS estimates by 3.3%
Reported EPS: $2.49 vs estimate $2.57. Our Fair Value of $233.05 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ALGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN beat EPS estimates by 7.1%
Reported EPS: $2.13 vs estimate $1.99. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $233.05 (18.9% above current price).
ALGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ALGN missed EPS estimates by 0.4%
Reported EPS: $2.44 vs estimate $2.45. Our Fair Value of $233.05 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ALGN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Align Technology, Inc.
What is Align Technology, Inc. stock price today?
Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) stock price is $196.05 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Align Technology, Inc. do?
Align Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally. The company's Clear Aligner segment offers Invisalign comprehensive package to treat adults and teens malocclusion and features, and orthodontic needs of teenage or younger patients; and Invisalign First Phase I and Invisalign First Comprehensive Phase 2 package for younger patients between the ages of six and ten years with a mixture of primary/baby and permanent teeth.
What is Align Technology, Inc. market cap?
Align Technology, Inc. has a market capitalization of $14.04B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Healthcare sector.
What sector and industry is ALGN in?
Align Technology, Inc. operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically within the Medical Instruments & Supplies industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ALGN.
Is ALGN stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Align Technology, Inc. trades 15.9% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $233.05
- Current Price: $196.05
- Valuation Zone: Strong Buy Zone
What is ALGN stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 14 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Align Technology, Inc. is $205.50, implying upside of 4.8% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $240.00
- Analyst Low Target: $169.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Align Technology, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Align Technology, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 3.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 7.4%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 4.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 9.1%
What are Align Technology, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.5B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 67.2% | Stable |
What is ALGN's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 34.7x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 15.9x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 29.5x
How volatile is ALGN stock?
Align Technology, Inc. has a beta of 1.81, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Align Technology, Inc. have?
Align Technology, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.09B
- Total Debt: $114.4M
- Net Cash Position: $980.5M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Align Technology, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Align Technology, Inc. generated $483.7M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $593.2M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Align Technology, Inc. pay a dividend?
Align Technology, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Align Technology, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Align Technology, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 5.50, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Align Technology, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Align Technology, Inc. scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is ALGN's return on equity (ROE)?
Align Technology, Inc.'s return on equity is 10.4%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy ALGN stock?
ALGN shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol ALGN
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is ALGN a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Align Technology, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Align Technology, Inc.?
The current CEO of Align Technology, Inc. is Mr. Joseph M. Hogan.
What is ALGN's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $5.65
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $12.31
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $11.29
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $12.31
Other Healthcare companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ALGN analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings