Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Is Moderna, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Moderna, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 4.27 places it in the safe zone. Fair value estimate is not available for this stock. Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could Moderna, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.27 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MRNA's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.3693 | 1.2 | 0.44 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5854 | 1.4 | 0.82 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.2235 | 3.3 | -0.74 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 5.9789 | 0.6 | 3.59 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.1558 | 1.0 | 0.16 |
How has MRNA's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.28 | Safe |
| 2023 | 4.01 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.97 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.27 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from MRNA's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Moderna, Inc. actually worth?
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Moderna, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up MRNA's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MRNA's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 49.3% | — |
| 2023 | -30.6% | Declining |
| 2024 | -32.9% | Declining |
| 2025 | -29.8% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Moderna, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Moderna, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9B | $3.2B | $18.9B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$2.8B | −$3.6B | $8.4B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$2.1B | −$4.1B | $4.6B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 54.8% | 54.2% | 71.3% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our MRNA analysis
MRNA earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $-2.90. Revenue estimate: $248.2M.
MRNA analyst consensus: 13% bullish (3 of 23 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 17 Hold, 1 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $46.10 (17.1% downside).
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA beat EPS estimates by 18.9%
Reported EPS: $-2.11 vs estimate $-2.60.
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA beat EPS estimates by 76.6%
Reported EPS: $-0.51 vs estimate $-2.18.
MRNA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA beat EPS estimates by 28.3%
Reported EPS: $-2.13 vs estimate $-2.97.
MRNA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA beat EPS estimates by 20.7%
Reported EPS: $-2.52 vs estimate $-3.18.
MRNA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA missed EPS estimates by 5.4%
Reported EPS: $-2.91 vs estimate $-2.76.
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MRNA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Moderna, Inc.
What is Moderna, Inc. stock price today?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock price is $55.60 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Moderna, Inc. do?
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, and human immunodeficiency virus vaccines; enteric viruses include norovirus; public health vaccines consist of Zika, Nipah, and Mpox vaccines; and bacterial diseases vaccines, such as lyme vaccines. It also provides oncology therapeutics, such as intismeran autogene, cancer antigen therapy, t-cell engager, and cell therapy enhancer; and rare disease products, including propionic and methylmalonic acidemia, and cystic fibrosis.
What is Moderna, Inc. market cap?
Moderna, Inc. has a market capitalization of $22.05B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Healthcare sector.
What sector and industry is MRNA in?
Moderna, Inc. operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically within the Biotechnology industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol MRNA.
Is MRNA stock overvalued or undervalued?
We do not have sufficient earnings data to produce a reliable fair value estimate for Moderna, Inc. at this time. Stocks without stable earnings history are difficult to value using traditional models.
What is MRNA stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 20 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Moderna, Inc. is $46.10, implying downside of 17.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $135.00
- Analyst Low Target: $21.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Moderna, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Moderna, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 7.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 0.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 21.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 37.2%
What are Moderna, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$2.8B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$2.1B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 54.8% | Declining |
What is MRNA's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): -12.1x
How volatile is MRNA stock?
Moderna, Inc. has a beta of 1.34, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Moderna, Inc. have?
Moderna, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $5.80B
- Total Debt: $1.30B
- Net Cash Position: $4.49B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Moderna, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Moderna, Inc. generated $-1.33B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $-1.87B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Moderna, Inc. pay a dividend?
Moderna, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Moderna, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Moderna, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 4.27, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Moderna, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moderna, Inc. scores 2.3/5 stars (Weak moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is MRNA's return on equity (ROE)?
Moderna, Inc.'s return on equity is -28.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy MRNA stock?
MRNA shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MRNA
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MRNA a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Moderna, Inc. as Pure Speculation. It lacks the financial stability or valuation margin typically required for value investing. This stock is considered high risk.
Who is the CEO of Moderna, Inc.?
The current CEO of Moderna, Inc. is Mr. Stéphane Bancel M.B.A..
What is MRNA's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-7.26
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $-4.61
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $-7.24
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $-4.55
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MRNA analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings