HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. a safe investment right now?
HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.75 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $410.73 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could HCA Healthcare, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.75 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives HCA's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0093 | 1.2 | -0.01 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.0943 | 1.4 | -0.13 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1989 | 3.3 | 0.66 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.6601 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.2451 | 1.0 | 1.25 |
How has HCA's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.03 | Safe |
| 2023 | 2.88 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.82 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.75 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from HCA's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is HCA Healthcare, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $29.13 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $28.33 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $30.33 | 21 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 16.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 14.1x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $542.67 (21 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does HCA Healthcare, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up HCA's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is HCA's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 29.2% | — |
| 2023 | 25.5% | Declining |
| 2024 | 26.1% | Stable |
| 2025 | 29.8% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can HCA Healthcare, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 10.2%. FCF covers the dividend 6.3x. 10 consecutive years of payments.
HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $75.6B | $70.6B | $60.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $6.8B | $5.8B | $5.6B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $7.7B | $5.6B | $4.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 41.5% | 40.6% | 38.5% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our HCA analysis
HCA earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $7.15. Revenue estimate: $19.07B. Our current Fair Value: $410.73 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
HCA analyst consensus: 60% bullish (15 of 25 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 9 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $542.67 (15.1% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $410.73.
HCA paid $0.7800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 10.2%.
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA beat EPS estimates by 9.7%
Reported EPS: $8.14 vs estimate $7.42. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $410.73 (12.9% below current price).
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA paid $0.7200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 10.2%.
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA beat EPS estimates by 21.6%
Reported EPS: $6.96 vs estimate $5.73. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $410.73 (12.9% below current price).
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA paid $0.7200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 10.2%.
HCA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA beat EPS estimates by 8.2%
Reported EPS: $6.84 vs estimate $6.32. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $410.73 (12.9% below current price).
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA paid $0.7200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 10.2%.
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA beat EPS estimates by 12.1%
Reported EPS: $6.45 vs estimate $5.75. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $410.73 (12.9% below current price).
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA paid $0.7200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 10.2%.
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
HCA beat EPS estimates by 1.2%
Reported EPS: $6.22 vs estimate $6.14. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $410.73 (12.9% below current price).
HCA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about HCA Healthcare, Inc.
What is HCA Healthcare, Inc. stock price today?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) stock price is $471.34 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does HCA Healthcare, Inc. do?
HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States. It owns, manages, and operates hospitals, ASCs, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, as well as rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, physician practices, home health agencies, hospices, outpatient physical therapy providers, home and community-based services providers, and various other facilities. Its general and acute care hospitals offer medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy.
What is HCA Healthcare, Inc. market cap?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. has a market capitalization of $105.40B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Healthcare sector.
What sector and industry is HCA in?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically within the Medical Care Facilities industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol HCA.
Is HCA stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, HCA Healthcare, Inc. trades 14.8% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $410.73
- Current Price: $471.34
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is HCA stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 21 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for HCA Healthcare, Inc. is $542.67, implying upside of 15.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $635.00
- Analyst Low Target: $425.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for HCA Healthcare, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 4.0%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 7.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 4.9%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 9.9%
What are HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $75.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $6.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $7.7B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 41.5% | Rising |
What is HCA's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 16.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 14.1x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 14.1x
How volatile is HCA stock?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. has a beta of 1.37, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does HCA Healthcare, Inc. have?
HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.14B
- Total Debt: $48.70B
- Net Cash Position: $-47.55B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s free cash flow?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. generated $5.82B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $12.64B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does HCA Healthcare, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, HCA Healthcare, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.6%
- Payout Ratio: 10.2%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 10
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -16.5%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.75, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does HCA Healthcare, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
How do I buy HCA stock?
HCA shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol HCA
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is HCA a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies HCA Healthcare, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of HCA Healthcare, Inc.?
The current CEO of HCA Healthcare, Inc. is Mr. Samuel N. Hazen.
What is HCA's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $28.33
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $33.33
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $30.33
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $33.34
Other Healthcare companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
HCA analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings